Photovoltaic power resource at the Atacama Desert under climate change

The Atacama desert is a region with exceptional conditions for solar power production. However, despite its relevance, the impact of climate change on this resource in this region has barely been studied. Here, we use regional climate models to explore how climate change will affect the photovoltaic solar power resource per square meter ( ) in Atacama. Models project average reductions in of 1.5% and 1.7% under an RCP8.5 scenario, respectively, for 2021-2040 and 2041-2060. Under RCP2.6 and the same periods, reductions range between 1.2% and 0.5%. Also, we study the contribution to future changes in of the downwelling shortwave radiation, air temperature and wind velocity. We find that the contribution from changes in wind velocity is negligible. Future changes of downwelling shortwave radiation, under the RCP8.5 scenario, cause up to 87% of the decrease of for 2021-2040 and 84% for 2041-2060. Rising temperatures due to climate change are responsible for drops in ranging between 13%–19% under RCP2.6 and 14%–16% under RCP8.5.Xunta de Galicia | Ref. ED431C 2021/44Universidad de Vigo/CISUGMinisterio de Ciencia e Innovación | Ref. IJC2020-043745-IMinisterio de Universidade