Impactos das rendas não-agrícolas sobre os indicadores de pobreza Foster-Greer-Thorbecke (FGT) para as famílias rurais do Estado do Ceará

The high incidence of poverty and the great imbalances in socioeconomic conditions of individuals residing in rural areas of the states of the Northeast, are the subject of study when it seeks to understand the different geographical dynamics of Brazilian economic development. From the 90s, even the positive developments in the economic performance of the country and the great economic transformations that have occurred in the last two decades, it was observed that the progress in reducing social problems in the rural Northeast were much lower than the other regions. The objective is to show the effects of non-agricultural incomes of the Foster-Greer-Thorbecke poverty indices (FGT) for rural households in the state of Ceará using the propensity score matching methodology (PSM). According to the observed results, the average impact of non-farm incomes on agricultural exclusively to R$190.28 and R$ 195.41 for the two pairing methods used; the proportion of poor fell more than 25 percentage points; the poverty gap is reduced on average by 33 percentage points and the severity of poverty decreases more than 28 percentage points.A elevada incidência da pobreza e os grandes desequilíbrios nas condições socioeconômicas dos indivíduos residentes no meio rural dos estados da região Nordeste, são objeto de estudo quando se busca entender as diferentes dinâmicas geográficas do desenvolvimento econômico brasileiro. A partir dos anos 90, mesmo com a evolução positiva no desempenho econômico do país e com as grandes transformações econômicas ocorridas nas duas últimas décadas, observou-se que os progressos na redução dos problemas sociais no Nordeste rural foram bastante inferiores aos das demais regiões. O objetivo do trabalho é mostrar os efeitos das rendas não-agrícolas sobre os indicadores de pobreza Foster-Greer-Thorbecke (FGT) para as famílias rurais do estado de Ceará utilizando a metodologia Propensity Score Matching (PSM). De acordo com os resultados observados, o impacto médio das rendas não agrícolas sobre as exclusivamente agrícolas é de R$190,28 e R$ 195,41 pelos dois métodos de pareamento utilizados; a proporção de pobres cai mais de 25 pontos percentuais; o hiato da pobreza é reduzido em média 33 pontos percentuais e a severidade da pobreza diminui mais de 28 pontos percentuais

Mercado de pera no Brasil: análise de transmissão de preços entre os mercados de São Paulo-SP, Porto Alegre-RS e Recife-PE

The present work had the objective of analyzing the transmission of prices between pear market in Brazil. Specifically, the markets chosen were Porto Alegre-RS, São Paulo-SP and Recife-PE, with monthly series between June 2009 and December 2015. Granger's causality test showed that the São Paulo market causes the others, but the reverse is not true. The Johansen cointegration test showed that the matrix of interest has a complete rank , which indicates that the columns of the matrix are linearly independent, so it is not necessary to estimate a VEC, but a level VAR. The price elasticity of transmission according to the estimated VAR model shows that the price increase in São Paulo is passed on in greater magnitude to Porto Alegre than to Recife. The 10% increase in the pear price in period , ceteris paribus, will increase Porto Alegre and Recife by 3.5% and 1.7%, respectively, in period . The variance decomposition confirms what Granger's causality test showed, that is, the São Paulo market is the central market, it is this market that determines prices, while the others are price takers.Objetiva analisar as transmissões de preços entre o mercado da pera no Brasil. Especificamente, os mercados escolhidos foram Porto Alegre-RS, São Paulo-SP e Recife-PE, sendo as séries de periodicidade mensal no período de junho de 2009 a dezembro de 2015. O teste de causalidade de Granger mostrou que o mercado de São Paulo causa os demais, porém o inverso não é verdadeiro. O teste de cointegração de Johansen mostrou que a matriz de interesse tem posto completo , o que indica que as colunas da matriz são linearmente independentes e, assim, não é necessário estimar um VEC, e sim, um VAR em nível. A elasticidade de transmissão de preços conforme o modelo VAR estimado mostra que o aumento de preço em São Paulo é repassado em maior magnitude para Porto Alegre do que para o Recife. O aumento de 10% do preço da pera no período , ceteris paribus, fará com que Porto Alegre e Recife aumentem em 3,5% e 1,7%, respectivamente, no período . A decomposição de variância confirma o que o teste de causalidade de Granger mostrou, ou seja, que o mercado de São Paulo é o mercado central e é este que determina os preços, enquanto os outros são tomadores de preços

Cointegração e transmissão de preços na avicultura em Pernambuco

The poultry activity stands out as a very important sector for Brazilian agribusiness. In recent years the activity has a significant growth, and stands in the export scenario. However, one of the obstacles to the consolidation of Pernambuco chicken meat market, compared to the other regions, it is the distance between the producing region and the supply regions of two of its determinants production inputs, corn and soybeans. The present study has the purpose to analyze the relationship among the prices of production inputs, corn and soybeans and the price of chicken meat to the state of Pernambuco. Time series methods, unit root test, Vectorial Autoregressive models (VAR), Granger test, variance decomposition of prediction error and impulse response function were used to analyze the price transmission among these markets. The analyzed period embraces January 2005 to December 2014. The results showed that, show unexpected shocks in the price of corn and soybeans positively influence the price of chicken meat for a short period.A atividade avícola se destaca como um setor de grande relevância para o agronegócio brasileiro. Nos últimos anos a atividade apresentou crescimento significativo, e destaca-se no cenário de exportações. No entanto, um dos entraves para a consolidação do mercado pernambucano de carne de frango, frente às demais regiões, é a distância entre a região produtora e as regiões fornecedoras de dois de seus insumos, o milho e soja. Posto isso, o presente trabalho analisou a relação entre os preços dos insumos produtivos, milho e soja, e o preço da carne de frango no estado de Pernambuco no período de janeiro de 2005 a dezembro de 2014. Utilizou-se o modelo econométrico de séries temporais, empregando o método vetorial autoregressivo (VAR), o teste de Granger, e a função impulso resposta e a decomposição da variância. Os resultados demonstram que choques exógenos no preço do milho e da soja influenciam positivamente o preço do frango por um curto período após o choque inicial

Lactobacillus crispatus dominance in the vaginal microbiome reduces the occurrence of spontaneous preterm birth in women with a short cervical length

Introduction: The majority of pregnant women with a short cervix will deliver at term and, thus, may unnecessarily receive advanced monitoring and treatment. It is still necessary to define more accurately which sub-population of women with a short cervix is at elevated risk for early delivery. Objective: To determine if vaginal microbiome composition influenced the rate of spontaneous preterm birth in women with a short cervical length. Methods: In an exploratory, observational prospective study, vaginal secretions were obtained from 591 women at 21–24 week gestation. Vaginal microbiome composition was determined by analyzing the V1–V3 region of the bacterial 16S ribosomal RNA gene. Results: Lactobacillus crispatus was numerically dominant in the vagina in 41.7% of subjects, followed by L. iners in 32% and Gardnerella vaginalis in 12%. In women whose cervix was ≤25mm, the sensitivity to predict an spontaneous preterm birth was 11.8%. However, when L. crispatus was not the dominant vaginal bacterium, this sensitivity increased to 81.8%. Similarly, in women with a cervical length ≤30mm, the sensitivity to predict an spontaneous preterm birth increased from 21.7 to 78.3% when L. crispatus was not the dominant vaginal bacterium. In women with a prior spontaneous preterm birth and a cervix ≤25 or ≤30mm, L. crispatus dominance was also associated with a reduced rate of spontaneous preterm birth in the current pregnancy (p<0.001). Conclusion: In pregnant women with a cervix ≤25mm or ≤30mm, the risk for an spontaneous preterm birth is increased if L. crispatus is not dominant in the vagina

A search for ultra-high-energy photons at the Pierre Auger Observatory exploiting air-shower universality

The Pierre Auger Observatory is the most sensitive detector to primary photons with energies above ∼0.2 EeV. It measures extensive air showers using a hybrid technique that combines a fluorescence detector (FD) with a ground array of particle detectors (SD). The signatures of a photon-induced air shower are a larger atmospheric depth at the shower maximum (X$_{max}$) and a steeper lateral distribution function, along with a lower number of muons with respect to the bulk of hadron-induced background. Using observables measured by the FD and SD, three photon searches in different energy bands are performed. In particular, between threshold energies of 1-10 EeV, a new analysis technique has been developed by combining the FD-based measurement of X$_{max}$ with the SD signal through a parameter related to its muon content, derived from the universality of the air showers. This technique has led to a better photon/hadron separation and, consequently, to a higher search sensitivity, resulting in a tighter upper limit than before. The outcome of this new analysis is presented here, along with previous results in the energy ranges below 1 EeV and above 10 EeV. From the data collected by the Pierre Auger Observatory in about 15 years of operation, the most stringent constraints on the fraction of photons in the cosmic flux are set over almost three decades in energy

Study on multi-ELVES in the Pierre Auger Observatory

Since 2013, the four sites of the Fluorescence Detector (FD) of the Pierre Auger Observatory record ELVES with a dedicated trigger. These UV light emissions are correlated to distant lightning strikes. The length of recorded traces has been increased from 100 μs (2013), to 300 μs (2014-16), to 900 μs (2017-present), to progressively extend the observation of the light emission towards the vertical of the causative lightning and beyond. A large fraction of the observed events shows double ELVES within the time window, and, in some cases, even more complex structures are observed. The nature of the multi-ELVES is not completely understood but may be related to the different types of lightning in which they are originated. For example, it is known that Narrow Bipolar Events can produce double ELVES, and Energetic In-cloud Pulses, occurring between the main negative and upper positive charge layer of clouds, can induce double and even quadruple ELVES in the ionosphere. This report shows the seasonal and daily dependence of the time gap, amplitude ratio, and correlation between the pulse widths of the peaks in a sample of 1000+ multi-ELVES events recorded during the period 2014-20. The events have been compared with data from other satellite and ground-based sensing devices to study the correlation of their properties with lightning observables such as altitude and polarity