Determinants of pre-vaccination antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2: a population-based longitudinal study (COVIDENCE UK)

BACKGROUND: Prospective population-based studies investigating multiple determinants of pre-vaccination antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2 are lacking. METHODS: We did a prospective population-based study in SARS-CoV-2 vaccine-naive UK adults recruited between May 1 and November 2, 2020, without a positive swab test result for SARS-CoV-2 prior to enrolment. Information on 88 potential sociodemographic, behavioural, nutritional, clinical and pharmacological risk factors was obtained through online questionnaires, and combined IgG/IgA/IgM responses to SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein were determined in dried blood spots obtained between November 6, 2020, and April 18, 2021. We used logistic and linear regression to estimate adjusted odds ratios (aORs) and adjusted geometric mean ratios (aGMRs) for potential determinants of SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity (all participants) and antibody titres (seropositive participants only), respectively. RESULTS: Of 11,130 participants, 1696 (15.2%) were seropositive. Factors independently associated with  higher risk of SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity included frontline health/care occupation (aOR 1.86, 95% CI 1.48–2.33), international travel (1.20, 1.07–1.35), number of visits to shops and other indoor public places (≥ 5 vs. 0/week: 1.29, 1.06–1.57, P-trend = 0.01), body mass index (BMI) ≥ 25 vs. < 25 kg/m(2) (1.24, 1.11–1.39), South Asian vs. White ethnicity (1.65, 1.10–2.49) and alcohol consumption ≥15 vs. 0 units/week (1.23, 1.04–1.46). Light physical exercise associated with  lower risk (0.80, 0.70–0.93, for ≥ 10 vs. 0–4 h/week). Among seropositive participants, higher titres of anti-Spike antibodies associated with factors including BMI ≥ 30 vs. < 25 kg/m(2) (aGMR 1.10, 1.02–1.19), South Asian vs. White ethnicity (1.22, 1.04–1.44), frontline health/care occupation (1.24, 95% CI 1.11–1.39), international travel (1.11, 1.05–1.16) and number of visits to shops and other indoor public places (≥ 5 vs. 0/week: 1.12, 1.02–1.23, P-trend = 0.01); these associations were not substantially attenuated by adjustment for COVID-19 disease severity. CONCLUSIONS: Higher alcohol consumption and lower light physical exercise represent new modifiable risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection. Recognised associations between South Asian ethnic origin and obesity and higher risk of SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity were independent of other sociodemographic, behavioural, nutritional, clinical, and pharmacological factors investigated. Among seropositive participants, higher titres of anti-Spike antibodies in people of South Asian ancestry and in obese people were not explained by greater COVID-19 disease severity in these groups. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12916-022-02286-4

Correlation Between Postvaccination Anti-Spike Antibody Titers and Protection Against Breakthrough Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Infection: A Population-Based Longitudinal Study

In this population-based cohort of 7538 adults, combined immunoglobulin (Ig) G, IgA, and IgM (IgG/A/M) anti-spike titers measured after severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccination were predictive of protection against breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 infection. Discrimination was significantly improved by adjustment for factors influencing risk of SARS-CoV-2 exposure, including household overcrowding, public transport use, and visits to indoor public places. Anti-spike IgG/A/M titers showed positive correlation with neutralizing antibody titers (r(s) = 0.80 [95% confidence interval, .72–.86]; P < .001) and S peptide–stimulated interferon-γ concentrations (r(s) = 0.31 [.13–.47]; P < .001)

Determinants of Antibody Responses to SARS-CoV-2 Vaccines: Population-Based Longitudinal Study (COVIDENCE UK)

Antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2 vaccines vary for reasons that remain poorly understood. A range of sociodemographic, behavioural, clinical, pharmacologic and nutritional factors could explain these differences. To investigate this hypothesis, we tested for presence of combined IgG, IgA and IgM (IgGAM) anti-Spike antibodies before and after 2 doses of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (ChAdOx1, AstraZeneca) or BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) in UK adults participating in a population-based longitudinal study who received their first dose of vaccine between December 2020 and July 2021. Information on sixty-six potential sociodemographic, behavioural, clinical, pharmacologic and nutritional determinants of serological response to vaccination was captured using serial online questionnaires. We used logistic regression to estimate multivariable-adjusted odds ratios (aORs) for associations between independent variables and risk of seronegativity following two vaccine doses. Additionally, percentage differences in antibody titres between groups were estimated in the sub-set of participants who were seropositive post-vaccination using linear regression. Anti-spike antibodies were undetectable in 378/9101 (4.2%) participants at a median of 8.6 weeks post second vaccine dose. Increased risk of post-vaccination seronegativity associated with administration of ChAdOx1 vs. BNT162b2 (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 6.6, 95% CI 4.2–10.4), shorter interval between vaccine doses (aOR 1.6, 1.2–2.1, 6–10 vs. >10 weeks), poor vs. excellent general health (aOR 3.1, 1.4–7.0), immunodeficiency (aOR 6.5, 2.5–16.6) and immunosuppressant use (aOR 3.7, 2.4–5.7). Odds of seronegativity were lower for participants who were SARS-CoV-2 seropositive pre-vaccination (aOR 0.2, 0.0–0.6) and for those taking vitamin D supplements (aOR 0.7, 0.5–0.9). Serologic responses to vaccination did not associate with time of day of vaccine administration, lifestyle factors including tobacco smoking, alcohol intake and sleep, or use of anti-pyretics for management of reactive symptoms after vaccination. In a sub-set of 8727 individuals who were seropositive post-vaccination, lower antibody titres associated with administration of ChAdOx1 vs. BNT162b2 (43.4% lower, 41.8–44.8), longer duration between second vaccine dose and sampling (12.7% lower, 8.2–16.9, for 9–16 weeks vs. 2–4 weeks), shorter interval between vaccine doses (10.4% lower, 3.7–16.7, for 10 weeks), receiving a second vaccine dose in October–December vs. April–June (47.7% lower, 11.4–69.1), older age (3.3% lower per 10-year increase in age, 2.1–4.6), and hypertension (4.1% lower, 1.1–6.9). Higher antibody titres associated with South Asian ethnicity (16.2% higher, 3.0–31.1, vs. White ethnicity) or Mixed/Multiple/Other ethnicity (11.8% higher, 2.9–21.6, vs. White ethnicity), higher body mass index (BMI; 2.9% higher, 0.2–5.7, for BMI 25–30 vs. <25 kg/m(2)) and pre-vaccination seropositivity for SARS-CoV-2 (105.1% higher, 94.1–116.6, for those seropositive and experienced COVID-19 symptoms vs. those who were seronegative pre-vaccination). In conclusion, we identify multiple determinants of antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2 vaccines, many of which are modifiable

Cancer care for Ukrainian refugees: Strategic impact assessments in the early days of the conflict

BACKGROUND: The invasion of Ukraine by Russia in February 2022 has resulted in destruction of healthcare infrastructure and triggered the largest wave of internally displaced populations and refugees since World War Two. Conflicts in transitioned countries such as Ukraine create new non-communicable disease (NCD) challenges, especially for cancer care for refugees and humanitarian assistance in host countries. In the early days, rapid attempts were made to model possible impacts. METHODS: By evaluating open source intelligence used in the first three months of the conflict through snowball search methods, we aimed to address: (i) burden of cancer in Ukrainian population, specifically considering translating to the refugees population, and its cancer care capacity; ii) baseline capacity/strengths of cancer systems in initial host countries. Moreover, using a baseline scenario based on crude cancer incidence in Ukraine, and considering data from UNHCR, we estimated how cancer cases would be distributed across host countries. Finally, a surveillance assessment instrument was created, intersecting health system's capacity and influx of internally displaced populations and refugees. FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS: The total new cancer patients per month in pre-conflict Ukraine was estimated as 13,106, of which < 1 % are paediatric cases. The estimated cancer cases in the refugee population (combining prevalent and incident), assuming 7.5 million refugees by July 2022 and a female:male ratio of 9:1, was 33,121 individuals (Poland: 19284; Hungary: 3484; Moldova: 2651; Slovakia: 2421; Romania: 5281). According to our assessments, Poland is the only neighbouring country classified as green/yellow for cancer capacity, i.e. sufficient ablility to absorb additional burden into national health system; Slovakia we graded as yellow, Hungary and Romania as yellow/red and Moldova as red