Program Evaluation and Random Program Starts

This paper discusses the evaluation problem using observational data when the timing of treatment is an outcome of a stochastic process. We show that, without additional assumptions, it is not possible to estimate the average treatment effect and treatment on the treated. It is, however, possible to estimate the effect of treatment on the treated up to a certain time point. We propose an estimator to estimate this effect and show that it is possible to test for an average treatment effect.treatment effects, dynamic treatment assignment, program evaluation, method of matching

Employment, mobility, and active labor market programs

Using a unique micro panel data set we investigate whether active labor market programs improve employment prospects and increase mobility in the longer run. We consider two prototype programs: job creation programs and training programs. We find that both programs reduce the chances of finding a job substantially. Moreover, both programs are associated with a locking-in effect: the probability of finding a job outside the home region decreases after program participation. However, this effect appears to stem exclusively from the decrease in the overall job finding rate.Subsidized employment; labor market training; program evaluation; employment; contracted mobility

Employment, Mobility, and Active Labor Market Programs

Using a unique micro panel data set we investigate whether active labor market programs improve employment prospects and increase mobility in the longer run. We consider two prototype programs: job creation programs and training programs. We find that both programs reduce the chances of finding a job substantially. Moreover, both programs are associated with a locking-in e.ect: the probability of finding a job outside the home region decreases after program participation. However, this e.ect appears to stem exclusively from the decrease in the overall job finding rate.Subsidized employment; labor market training; program evaluation; employment; contracted mobility

Tobacco Politics and Electoral Accountability in the United States

This paper investigates whether reputation-building strategies guide U.S. governors’ state cigarette tax choices, and whether the federal cigarette tax influences such behavior. Using 1975-2000 data, we find evidence that governors in states with relatively important agricultural tobacco production and tobacco manufacturing, and which are densely populated by smokers, appear prone to reputation-building. Moreover, lame ducks are more prone to raise the state cigarette tax the lower the federal tax.Agricultural tobacco, cigarette taxation, lobbying, reputation-building; electoral accountability; term limits; federalism

Trade, Earnings, and Mobility - Swedish Evidence

Using a large longitudinal data set, we study the effects of increased trade on earnings and mobility in the Swedish labor market in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Earnings respond significantly to changes in industry sales, whether generated by domestic market forces or international trade: Swedish exports (imports) raise (lower) annual earnings, but changes in trade affect earnings just as any other shift in market conditions. In general, the wage effects are small; the prime response to changes in the product market appears to be variations in employment. We also examine whether trade has differential effects across skill groups. However, we do not find systematic differences in the effects of trade across the earnings distribution.International Trade; Earnings; Mobility

LINDA - Longitudinal INdividual DAta for Sweden

This paper presents LINDA - a register-based longitudinal data set for Sweden. LINDA consists of a large panel of individuals, and their household members, which is representative for the population during the period 1960 to 1998. As future years become available, this information will be added to the data set. LINDA also includes a specific sample of immigrants. This sample has the same design and covers the same time period as the population sample. We provide a description of the sources of data, the sampling frame as well as the sampling procedure. Moreover, to illustrate the usefulness and particular features of LINDA, we give the development of some of the key variables in the data set.Longitudinal data; Population sample; Immigrant sample; Sweden

Ethnic enclaves and the economic success of immigrants - evidence from a natural experiment

Recent immigrants tend to locate in ethnic "enclaves" within metropolitan areas. The economic consequence of living in such enclaves is still an unresolved issue. We use an immigrant policy initiative in Sweden, when government authorities distributed refugee immigrants across locales in a way that may be considered exogenous. This policy initiative provides a unique natural experiment, which allows us to estimate the causal effect on labor market outcomes of living in enclaves. We find substantive evidence of sorting across locations. When sorting is taken into account, living in enclaves improves labor market outcomes; for instance, the earnings gain associated with a standard deviation increase in ethnic concentration is in the order of four to five percent.Immigration; Enclaves; Labor market outcomes

Settlement Policies and the Economic Success of Immigrants

Many developed countries, e.g. the UK, Germany, and Sweden, use or have used settlement policies to direct the inflow of new immigrants away from immigrant dense metropolitan areas. We evaluate a reform of Swedish immigration policy that featured dispersion of refugee immigrants across the country, but also a change in the approach to labor market integration. We focus exclusively on how immigrants fared because of the policy. The results indicate that immigrants experienced fairly substantial long run losses because of the policy. We also find that only a smaller share of this effect was associated with the dispersion of immigrants across regions. The larger share of the impact appears to stem from a common component that affected immigrants regardless of where they were located. Our somewhat speculative reading of this result is that it can be traced to a shift in emphasis of integration policy from a policy focusing on labor market assimilation to one of income support.Immigration; Settlement policies; Labor market outcomes

Corruption and climate change policies: do the bad old days matter?

We study the effect of countries’ historical legacy with corruption on recent climate change policies and on global cooperation. Current policy outcomes build on policy choices made in previous years, and these choices were likely affected by the degree of corruption at the time. Our empirical findings using data for up to 131 countries suggest that accumulated historical experience with corruption is important for today’s policy outcomes, and appears to be more important than the current level of corruption

Peers, Neighborhoods and Immigrant Student Achievement - Evidence from a Placement Policy

We examine to what extent immigrant school performance is affected by the characteristics of the neighborhoods that they grow up in. We address this issue using a refugee placement policy which provides exogenous variation in the initial place of residence in Sweden. The main result is that school performance is increasing in the number of highly educated adults sharing the subject’s ethnicity. A standard deviation increase in the fraction of high-educated in the assigned neighborhood raises compulsory school GPA by 0.9 percentile ranks. Particularly for disadvantaged groups, there are also long-run effects on educational attainment.Peer effects; Ethnic enclaves; Immigration; School performance