Improvement over time in outcomes for patients undergoing endoscopic therapy for Barrett's oesophagus-related neoplasia: 6-year experience from the first 500 patients treated in the UK patient registry.

BACKGROUND: Barrett's oesophagus (BE) is a pre-malignant condition leading to oesophageal adenocarcinoma (OAC). Treatment of neoplasia at an early stage is desirable. Combined endoscopic mucosal resection (EMR) followed by radiofrequency ablation (RFA) is an alternative to surgery for patients with BE-related neoplasia. METHODS: We examined prospective data from the UK registry of patients undergoing RFA/EMR for BE-related neoplasia from 2008 to 2013. Before RFA, visible lesions were removed by EMR. Thereafter, patients had RFA 3-monthly until all BE was ablated or cancer developed (endpoints). End of treatment biopsies were recommended at around 12 months from first RFA treatment or when endpoints were reached. Outcomes for clearance of dysplasia (CR-D) and BE (CR-IM) at end of treatment were assessed over two time periods (2008-2010 and 2011-2013). Durability of successful treatment and progression to OAC were also evaluated. RESULTS: 508 patients have completed treatment. CR-D and CR-IM improved significantly between the former and later time periods, from 77% and 56% to 92% and 83%, respectively (p<0.0001). EMR for visible lesions prior to RFA increased from 48% to 60% (p=0.013). Rescue EMR after RFA decreased from 13% to 2% (p<0.0001). Progression to OAC at 12 months is not significantly different (3.6% vs 2.1%, p=0.51). CONCLUSIONS: Clinical outcomes for BE neoplasia have improved significantly over the past 6 years with improved lesion recognition and aggressive resection of visible lesions before RFA. Despite advances in technique, the rate of cancer progression remains 2-4% at 1 year in these high-risk patients. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN93069556

Tidal and groundwater fluxes to a shallow, microtidal estuary : constraining inputs through field observations and hydrodynamic modeling

This paper is not subject to U.S. copyright. The definitive version was published in Estuaries and Coasts 35 (2012): 1285-1298, doi:10.1007/s12237-012-9515-x.Increased nutrient loading to estuaries has led to eutrophication, degraded water quality, and ecological transformations. Quantifying nutrient loads in systems with significant groundwater input can be difficult due to the challenge of measuring groundwater fluxes. We quantified tidal and freshwater fluxes over an 8-week period at the entrance of West Falmouth Harbor, Massachusetts, a eutrophic, groundwater-fed estuary. Fluxes were estimated from velocity and salinity measurements and a total exchange flow (TEF) methodology. Intermittent cross-sectional measurements of velocity and salinity were used to convert point measurements to cross-sectionally averaged values over the entire deployment (index relationships). The estimated mean freshwater flux (0.19 m3/s) for the 8-week period was mainly due to groundwater input (0.21 m3/s) with contributions from precipitation to the estuary surface (0.026 m3/s) and removal by evaporation (0.048 m3/s). Spring–neap variations in freshwater export that appeared in shorter-term averages were mostly artifacts of the index relationships. Hydrodynamic modeling with steady groundwater input demonstrated that while the TEF methodology resolves the freshwater flux signal, calibration of the index– salinity relationships during spring tide conditions only was responsible for most of the spring–neap signal. The mean freshwater flux over the entire period estimated from the combination of the index-velocity, index–salinity, and TEF calculations were consistent with the model, suggesting that this methodology is a reliable way of estimating freshwater fluxes in the estuary over timescales greater than the spring– neap cycle. Combining this type of field campaign with hydrodynamic modeling provides guidance for estimating both magnitude of groundwater input and estuarine storage of freshwater and sets the stage for robust estimation of the nutrient load in groundwater.Funding was provided by the USGS Coastal and Marine Geology Program and by National Science Foundation Award #0420575 from the Biocomplexity/Coupled Biogeochemical Cycles Program

Regional disparities in the beneficial effects of rising CO2 concentrations on crop water productivity

Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations ([CO2]) are expected to enhance photosynthesis and reduce crop water use1. However, there is high uncertainty about the global implications of these effects for future crop production and agricultural water requirements under climate change. Here we combine results from networks of field experiments1, 2 and global crop models3 to present a spatially explicit global perspective on crop water productivity (CWP, the ratio of crop yield to evapotranspiration) for wheat, maize, rice and soybean under elevated [CO2] and associated climate change projected for a high-end greenhouse gas emissions scenario. We find CO2 effects increase global CWP by 10[0;47]%–27[7;37]% (median[interquartile range] across the model ensemble) by the 2080s depending on crop types, with particularly large increases in arid regions (by up to 48[25;56]% for rainfed wheat). If realized in the fields, the effects of elevated [CO2] could considerably mitigate global yield losses whilst reducing agricultural consumptive water use (4–17%). We identify regional disparities driven by differences in growing conditions across agro-ecosystems that could have implications for increasing food production without compromising water security. Finally, our results demonstrate the need to expand field experiments and encourage greater consistency in modelling the effects of rising [CO2] across crop and hydrological modelling communities

Evaluation of distributed recharge in an upland semi-arid karst system : the West Bank Mountain Aquifer, Middle East

Assessment of recharge in a structurally complex upland karst limestone aquifer situated in a semi-arid environment is difficult. Resort to surrogate indicators such as measurement of spring outflow and borehole discharge, is a common alternative, and attempts to apply conventional soil moisture deficit analysis may not adequately account for the intermittent spate conditions that arise in such environments. A modelling approach has been made using the West Bank Mountain Aquifer system in the Middle East as a trial. The model uses object oriented software which allows various objects to be switched on and off. Each of the main recharge processes identified in the West Bank is incorporated. The model allows either conventional soil moisture deficit analysis calculations or wetting threshold calculations to be made as appropriate, and accommodates both direct recharge and secondary recharge. Daily time steps enable recharge and runoff routing to be calculated for each node. Model runs have enabled a series of simulations for each of the three aquifer basins in the West Bank and for the whole of the West Bank. These provide recharge estimates comparable to those prepared by earlier workers by conventional means. The model is adaptable and has been successfully used in other environments