Individual variation in susceptibility or exposure to SARS-CoV-2 lowers the herd immunity threshold

Individual variation in susceptibility and exposure is subject to selection by natural infection, accelerating the acquisition of immunity, and reducing herd immunity thresholds and epidemic final sizes. This is a manifestation of a wider population phenomenon known as “frailty variation”. Despite theoretical understanding, public health policies continue to be guided by mathematical models that leave out considerable variation and as a result inflate projected disease burdens and overestimate the impact of interventions. Here we focus on trajectories of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic in England and Scotland until November 2021. We fit models to series of daily deaths and infer relevant epidemiological parameters, including coefficients of variation and effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions which we find in agreement with independent empirical estimates based on contact surveys. Our estimates are robust to whether the analysed data series encompass one or two pandemic waves and enable projections compatible with subsequent dynamics. We conclude that vaccination programmes may have contributed modestly to the acquisition of herd immunity in populations with high levels of pre-existing naturally acquired immunity, while being crucial to protect vulnerable individuals from severe outcomes as the virus becomes endemic

Alcoholism and Strongyloides stercoralis: Daily Ethanol Ingestion Has a Positive Correlation with the Frequency of Strongyloides Larvae in the Stools

It has been reported that Strongyloides stercoralis infection is more prevalent in chronic alcoholic patients than in non alcoholics living in the same country. In a retrospective study on the prevalence of S. stercoralis infection in a large sample of alcoholic patients, we demonstrate that this prevalence is significantly higher than in non-alcoholic patients admitted at the same hospital. Moreover, the frequency of the parasite was in close relationship with the daily amount of ingested ethanol, even in the absence of liver cirrhosis, reinforcing the idea that chronic alcoholism is associated with increased susceptibility to Strongyloides infection. Beside the bad hygiene profile of alcoholic patients, which explains high risk for acquisition of the parasite, the high prevalence of S. stercoralis in alcoholics may be in relationship with other effects of ethanol on the intestinal motility, steroid metabolism and immune system, which could enhance the chance of autoinfection and the survival and fecundity of females in duodenum. In this way, the number of larvae in the stools is higher in alcoholic patients, increasing the chance of a positive result in a stool examination by sedimentation method