Long-term relationship between climate change and nomadic migration in historical China

We investigated the relationship between a 2000-year history of nomadic migration and climate change in historical China. By using updated data and statistical methods, the study solved several unanswered questions from past research about the relationship between climate change and the nomadic migration, especially over the long term and on a large spatial scale. The study used correlation analysis, multiple regression analysis, and Granger causality analysis to quantitatively verify the following causal pathway: climate change → nomadic migration → conflicts between pastoralists and agriculturalists. In the long term, precipitation was a statistically more influential factor on nomadic migration than temperature in historical China. How climate change affects the migration of nomadic minorities in the long term is theoretically explained based on the Push-Pull model as well as statistical evidence.published_or_final_versio

Climate Change and Macro-Economic Cycles in Pre-Industrial Europe

Climate change has been proven to be the ultimate cause of social crisis in pre-industrial Europe at a large scale. However, detailed analyses on climate change and macro-economic cycles in the pre-industrial era remain lacking, especially within different temporal scales. Therefore, fine-grained, paleo-climate, and economic data were employed with statistical methods to quantitatively assess the relations between climate change and agrarian economy in Europe during AD 1500 to 1800. In the study, the Butterworth filter was adopted to filter the data series into a long-term trend (low-frequency) and short-term fluctuations (high-frequency). Granger Causality Analysis was conducted to scrutinize the associations between climate change and macro-economic cycle at different frequency bands. Based on quantitative results, climate change can only show significant effects on the macro-economic cycle within the long-term. In terms of the short-term effects, society can relieve the influences from climate variations by social adaptation methods and self-adjustment mechanism. On a large spatial scale, temperature holds higher importance for the European agrarian economy than precipitation. By examining the supply-demand mechanism in the grain market, population during the study period acted as the producer in the long term, whereas as the consumer in the short term. These findings merely reflect the general interactions between climate change and macro-economic cycles at the large spatial region with a long-term study period. The findings neither illustrate individual incidents that can temporarily distort the agrarian economy nor explain some specific cases. In the study, the scale thinking in the analysis is raised as an essential methodological issue for the first time to interpret the associations between climatic impact and macro-economy in the past agrarian society within different temporal scales.published_or_final_versio

Climate change and the macroeconomic structure in Pre-industrial Europe: new evidence from Wavelet Analysis

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Long-term regional precipitation disparity in northwestern China and its driving forces

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Crop management as an agricultural adaptation to climate change in early modern era: A comparative study of Eastern and Western Europe

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Temperature and precipitation effects on agrarian economy in late imperial China

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The Expression and Roles of Nde1 and Ndel1 in the Adult Mammalian Central Nervous System

Open Access funded by Wellcome Trust Under a Creative Commons license Acknowledgments We thank Prof Angelo Sementilli, Department of Pathology, Universidade Metropolitana de Santos, SP, Brazil, for the human sample collection. This study is funded by Scottish Universities Life Sciences Alliance (HR07019 to S. Shen and C.D. McCaig), Medical Research Scotland (384 FRG to B. Lang, United Kingdom), Tenovus Scotland (G12/25 to B. Lang), Sino-UK Higher Education Research Partnership for PhD Studies (C.D. McCaig and Y.Q. Ding) and Wellcome Trust (WT081633MA-NCE to P.J.A. McCaffery, United Kingdom).Peer reviewedPublisher PD