Shared Legacies, Disparate Outcomes: Why American South Border Cities Turned the Tables on Crime and Their Mexican Sisters Did Not

The article evaluates crime trends in south border American and Mexican sister cities using panel data analysis. The region offers a unique assessment opportunity since cities are characterized by shared cultural and historical legacies, institutional heterogeneity, and disparate crime outcomes. Higher homicide rates on the Mexican side seem to result from deficient law enforcement. Higher population densities in Mexican cities appear to also be a factor. Cultural differences, on the other hand, have been decreasing, and apparently do not play a substantial role. The homicide rate dynamics show opportunistic clustering of criminal activity in Mexican cities, while no clustering is found on the American side. Crime also appears to spill from Mexican cities into American cities. Homicide rates on both sides of the border have been falling faster than countrywide rates, leading, in the case of American cities, and against stereotypes, to rates below the countrywide rate in 2001.Crime, Border, Law Enforcement, Justice, Immigration, Mexico

BAD Taxation: Disintermediation and Illiquidity in a Bank Account Debits Tax Model

This paper uses a dynamic general equilibrium model to study the economic effects of bank account debits (BAD) taxation. Australia and various Latin American countries have levied or levy BAD taxes. Aspects such as financial disintermediation, market illiquidity, and impacts on dividend and interest rates are considered. Part of the BAD tax revenue may be fictitious, due to increased interest payments on government debt. The Brazilian BAD tax (CPMF) experience is evaluated. The empirical analysis confirms some theoretical predictions. Incidence base over GDP appears to be sensitive to the tax rate, possibly engendering a Laffer curve. The tax may also cause real interest rates to increase. Furthermore, the deadweight losses are relatively large, even if revenues are small. The theoretical and empirical results suggest that the BAD tax is not adequate for revenue collection.Bank Account Debits Tax, BAD Tax, Financial Transactions Tax, FTT, Currency Transaction Tax, CTT, Automated Payment Transaction Tax, APT Tax, CPMF, Disintermediation, Illiquidity

Optimal Time Interval Selection in Long-Run Correlation Estimation

This paper presents an asymptotically optimal time interval selection criterion for the long-run correlation block estimator (Bartlett kernel estimator) based on the Newey-West and Andrews-Monahan approaches. An alignment criterion that enhances finite-sample performance is also proposed. The procedure offers an optimal yet unobtrusive alternative to the common practice in finance and economics of arbitrarily choosing time intervals or lags in correlation studies. A Monte Carlo experiment using parameters derived from Dow Jones returns data confirms that the procedures are MSE-superior to typical alternatives such as aggregation over arbitrary time intervals, parametric VAR estimation, and Newey-West covariance matrix estimation with automatic lag selection.Long-Run Correlation, Bartlett, Lag Selection, Time Interval, Alignment, Newey-West

Flip invariance for domino tilings of three-dimensional regions with two floors

We investigate tilings of cubiculated regions with two simply connected floors by 2 x 1 x 1 bricks. More precisely, we study the flip connected component for such tilings, and provide an algebraic invariant that "almost" characterizes the flip connected components of such regions, in a sense that we discuss in the paper. We also introduce a new local move, the trit, which, together with the flip, connects the space of domino tilings when the two floors are identical.Comment: 33 pages, 34 figures, 2 tables. We updated the reference lis

Using a Money Demand Model to Evaluate Monetary Policies in Brazil

This paper uses a money demand model to evaluate monetary policies under different regimes in Brazil. The consistency between monetary liquidity and the inflation rate path is considered. The concept is applied to the Brazilian case by modeling M 1 and its components. Based on unit root and cointegration tests, a growth-rate model is chosen, which considers all the interventions that happened during the sample period (1980-1999). It is shown that a variable seasonal pattern, which is a linear function of the nominal interest rate, increases the model ability to explain seasonal changes in the money demand. Despite the economic instability that marked Brazilian economic history during the last two decades, the model shows good fit and predictive power. Finally, it is shown that unsuccessful macroeconomic stabilization programs were marked by excessive liquidity, with money supply exceeding expected conditional money demand during intervention periods. The results suggest that to track monetary aggregates can be useful to policy makers even under a regime where interest rates are the main policy instrument.