A COMPARISON OF SUBJECTIVE AND HISTORICAL CROP YIELD PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

Forecast distributions based on historical yields and subjective expectations for 1987 expected crop yields were compared for 90 Western Kentucky grain farms. Different subjective probability elicitation techniques were also compared. In many individual cases, results indicate large differences between subjective and empirical moments. Overall, farmer expectations for 1987 corn yields were below those predicted from their past yields, while soybean expectations were above the historical forecast. Geographical location plays a larger role than crop in comparisons of relative variability of yield. Neither elicitation technique nor manager characteristics have significant effects on the comparisons of the forecasts.Crop Production/Industries,

PROPOSED END OF PEANUT QUOTA PROGRAM: ECONOMIC EFFECTS ON VIRGINIA PRODUCERS

Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries,

Reducing Crop Nutrient Applications: The Yield Reserve Program

A proposed Yield Reserve Program designed to compensate farmers for any reduced yields resulting from reduced nitrogen (N) application rates below recommended rates is evaluated. Assuming that farmers currently follow extension recommendations for applying N, Yield Reserve Program participation reduces expected net revenue by $10 to$13/ha. The Yield Reserve Program reduces expected net revenue by $17 to$20/ha for farmers who apply N to maximize expected net revenue. Farmers costs of participation increase with lower probabilities of inadequate rainfall and higher corn prices and decline with higher N prices. The Yield Reserve Program can significantly reduce N applications to cropland, which may reduce N content of surface waters, but the costs to taxpayers and farmers will depend on how the program is implemented.compliance cost, nitrogen fertilizer, nonpoint source pollution, policy, yield response function, Crop Production/Industries,

Conservation Provisions of the Food, Conservation and Energy Act of 2008: Evolutionary Changes and Challenges

Farm Bill, Conservation, Agricultural land retirement, Agricultural land preservation, Working lands, Agricultural and Food Policy, H59, Q58, Policy,

ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF NUTRIENT LOSS REDUCTIONS ON DAIRY AND DAIRY/POULTRY FARMS

Livestock Production/Industries,

COST EFFECTIVENESS OF NUTRIENT MANAGEMENT AND BUFFERS: COMPARISONS OF FOUR SPATIAL SCENARIOS

Policymakers are seeking cost effective methods to reduce nutrient pollution from agriculture. Predicted costs and pollution reductions from nutrient management and buffers are evaluated under four spatial scenarios describing a watershed. Results will help policymakers evaluate alternative Best Management Practices (BMPs) for water quality protection in agriculture.Environmental Economics and Policy,

FARM ADVISORY SERVICES AND PESTICIDE TOXICITY ON COTTON AND PEANUTS IN THE ALBEMARLE-PAMLICO WATERSHED

According to a Virginia-North Carolina watershed survey, farmers view advisory services as having the effect of decreasing pesticide use. However, analysis of pesticide use shows that hired staff, scouting personnel, and extension agents are associated with higher pesticide toxicity applied to cotton while chemical dealers and scouting personnel are associated with higher toxicity applied to peanuts.Crop Production/Industries, Environmental Economics and Policy,

AN INTRODUCTION TO VIRGINIA ISSUES: INFORMATION AND ANALYSIS: SPECIAL REPORT FOR VIRGINIA COOPERATIVE EXTENSION

Community/Rural/Urban Development, Labor and Human Capital, Land Economics/Use,

Yield Reserve Program Costs in the Virginia Coastal Plain

A proposed Yield Reserve Program designed to compensate farmers for any reduced yields resulting from nitrogen (N) application rates reduced to below recommended rates is evaluated. Assuming that farmers currently follow Extension recommendations for applying N, Yield Reserve Program participation reduces expected net revenue by $10 to$13/ha. The Yield Reserve Program reduces expected net revenue by $17 to$20/ha for farmers who apply N to maximize expected net revenue. Farmers’ costs of participation increase with lower probabilities of inadequate rainfall and higher corn prices and decline with higher N prices. The Yield Reserve Program can significantly reduce N applications to cropland, which may reduce N content of surface waters, but the costs to taxpayers and farmers will depend on how the program is implemented.compliance cost, nitrogen fertilizer, nonpoint source pollution, policy, yield response function, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries,

The Economic Impact of the Agriculture Sector In Clarke County, Virginia 2005

Community/Rural/Urban Development,