Understanding residents’ capacities to support evacuated populations : A study of earthquake and tsunami evacuation for Napier Hill, Napier, Aotearoa New Zealand.

Due to a large regional subduction zone (the Hikurangi subduction zone) and localised faults, Napier City located on the East Coast of Aotearoa/New Zealand is vulnerable to earthquake and tsunami events. On feeling a long or strong earthquake people will need to evacuate immediately inland or to higher ground to avoid being impacted by a tsunami, of which the first waves could start to arrive within 20 minutes (based on the Hikurangi earthquake and tsunami scenario presented in Power et al., 2018). Napier Hill is one such area of higher land, and it is estimated that up to 12,000 people could evacuate there in the 20 minutes following a long or strong earthquake. To understand the capacity of Napier Hill residents to support evacuees, three focus groups were held with a diverse sample of residents from Napier Hill on 21 and 22 July 2019. A follow up email was sent to all participants a week after the focus groups, containing a link to a short six question survey, which was completed by 68 people, most of whom were additional to the focus group attendees. Data from the focus groups and the survey was analysed qualitatively using thematic analysis. The findings highlight that in general people were happy to host evacuees and offer support if they were in a position to do so. However, key issues in being able to offer support included the likely lack of resources available after a disaster, ranging from basic needs though to agency support. The research findings will directly inform Napier City Council and Hawke’s Bay Civil Defence Emergency Management Group’s planning for future readiness and response by providing valuable insights for evacuation planningfalseWellingtonHawke's Bay Civil Defence Emergency Management Grou

An Analysis of Jitter and Transit Timing Variations in the HAT-P-13 System

If the two planets in the HAT-P-13 system are coplanar, the orbital states provide a probe of the internal planetary structure. Previous analyses of radial velocity and transit timing data of the system suggested that the observational constraints on the orbital states were rather small. We reanalyze the available data, treating the jitter as an unknown MCMC parameter, and find that a wide range of jitter values are plausible, hence the system parameters are less well constrained than previously suggested. For slightly increased levels of jitter ($\sim 4.5\,m\,s^{-1}$) the eccentricity of the inner planet can be in the range $0<e_{inner}<0.07$, the period and eccentricity of the outer planet can be $440<P_{outer}<470$ days and $0.55<e_{outer}<0.85$ respectively, while the relative pericenter alignment, $\eta$, of the planets can take essentially any value $-180^{\circ}<\eta<+180^{\circ}$. It is therefore difficult to determine whether $e_{inner}$ and $\eta$ have evolved to a fixed-point state or a limit cycle, or to use $e_{inner}$ to probe the internal planetary structure. We perform various transit timing variation (TTV) analyses, demonstrating that current constraints merely restrict $e_{outer}<0.85$, and rule out relative planetary inclinations within $\sim 2^{\circ}$ of $i_{rel}=90^{\circ}$, but that future observations could significantly tighten the restriction on both these parameters. We demonstrate that TTV profiles can readily distinguish the theoretically favored inclinations of i_{rel}=0^{\circ}\,&\,45^{\circ}, provided that sufficiently precise and frequent transit timing observations of HAT-P-13b can be made close to the pericenter passage of HAT-P-13c. We note the relatively high probability that HAT-P-13c transits and suggest observational dates and strategies.Comment: Published in Ap

Quadrupole moment of a magnetically confined mountain on an accreting neutron star: effect of the equation of state

Magnetically confined mountains on accreting neutron stars are promising sources of continuous-wave gravitational radiation and are currently the targets of directed searches with long-baseline detectors like the Laser Interferometer Gravitational Wave Observatory (LIGO). In this paper, previous ideal-magnetohydrodynamic models of isothermal mountains are generalized to a range of physically motivated, adiabatic equations of state. It is found that the mass ellipticity drops substantially, from \epsilon ~ 3e-4 (isothermal) to \epsilon ~ 9e-7 (non-relativistic degenerate neutrons), 6e-8 (relativistic degenerate electrons) and 1e-8 (non-relativistic degenerate electrons) (assuming a magnetic field of 3e12 G at birth). The characteristic mass M_{c} at which the magnetic dipole moment halves from its initial value is also modified, from M_{c}/M_{\sun} ~ 5e-4 (isothermal) to M_{c}/M_{\sun} ~ 2e-6, 1e-7, and 3e-8 for the above three equations of state, respectively. Similar results are obtained for a realistic, piecewise-polytropic nuclear equation of state. The adiabatic models are consistent with current LIGO upper limits, unlike the isothermal models. Updated estimates of gravitational-wave detectability are made. Monte Carlo simulations of the spin distribution of accreting millisecond pulsars including gravitational-wave stalling agree better with observations for certain adiabatic equations of state, implying that X-ray spin measurements can probe the equation of state when coupled with magnetic mountain models.Comment: 20 pages, 15 figures, to be published in MNRA

Scattering Calculations with Wavelets

We show that the use of wavelet bases for solving the momentum-space scattering integral equation leads to sparse matrices which can simplify the solution. Wavelet bases are applied to calculate the K-matrix for nucleon-nucleon scattering with the s-wave Malfliet-Tjon V potential. We introduce a new method, which uses special properties of the wavelets, for evaluating the singular part of the integral. Analysis of this test problem indicates that a significant reduction in computational size can be achieved for realistic few-body scattering problems.Comment: 26 pages, Latex, 6 eps figure

Gravitational waves from an accreting neutron star with a magnetic mountain

We calculate the amplitude of gravitational waves from a neutron star accreting symmetrically at its magnetic poles. The magnetic field, which is compressed into an equatorial belt during accretion, confines accreted matter in a mountain at the magnetic pole, producing gravitational waves. We compute hydromagnetic equilibria and the corresponding quadrupole moment as a function of the accreted mass, Ma, finding the polarization- and orientation- averaged wave strain at Earth to be h_c = 6.3 × 10^(–25)(M_a/10^(–5)M_☉)(ƒ/0.6kHz)^2(d/1kpc)^(–1) for a range of conditions, where ƒ is the wave frequency and d is the distance to the source. This is ~ 10^2 times greater than previous estimates, which failed to treat the mass-flux distribution self-consistently with respect to flux-freezin

Adapting clinical guidelines to take account of multimorbidity

Most people with a chronic condition have multimorbidity, but clinical guidelines almost entirely focus on single conditions. It will never be possible to have good evidence for every possible combination of conditions, but guidelines could be made more useful for people with multimorbidity if they were delivered in a format that brought together relevant recommendations for different chronic conditions and identified synergies, cautions, and outright contradictions. We highlight the problem that multimorbidity poses to clinicians and patients using guidelines for single conditions and propose ways of making them more useful for people with multimorbidity