Application of the commensurability method for long-term forecasting of the highest summer floods on the Danube River at Bratislava

This paper reports the use of the commensurability method for long-term forecasting of the highest summer floods on the Danube River at Bratislava. Bratislava is the capital of the Slovak Republic, as well as its major administrative and industrial centre. In the past, Bratislava has suffered from dangerous floods. The highest floods have occurred most frequently in the summer. Consequently, long-term forecasting of summer floods on the Danube River at Bratislava has important scientific and practical significance. We used the dates of the highest summer floods for the period 1876-2018, as well as historical information about the highest summer floods that occurred before the beginning of regular hydrometric observations. The commensurability method supports prediction of various natural phenomena, including floods and other dangerous events. It is characterized by the simplicity of the calculations and minimum needs for input information. Four methods of forecasting were used: (1) the calculated value of commensurability; (2) the two-dimensional and three-dimensional graphs of commensurability; (3) the time intervals between floods that have occurred in the past; and (4) the number of commensurability equations with three components. The results indicate that the highest summer floods are likely to occur on the Danube at Bratislava in 2020, 2025, and 2030

The Use of a Uniform Technique for Harmonization and Generalization in Assessing the Flood Discharge Frequencies of Long Return Period Floods in the Danube River Basin

The flow regime conditions of the Danube River are continually changing. These changes are the result of natural processes and anthropogenic activities. The territory of the Danube River Basin is one of the most flood-endangered regions in Europe and assessing the design discharges along the Danube channel is complicated by the different estimation methods that are applied in particular countries. For this reason, it is necessary to harmonize flood design value assessment methods. The long-term maximum annual discharge series of the Danube River and other rivers in the Danube basin were analyzed and used to estimate the flood design values. We used the Log-Pearson type III distribution, which is one of the most widely used theoretical probability distributions to estimate extremes. This distribution can be flexibly applied to extreme values depending on the skew coefficient. We also analyzed the effect of the inclusion and exclusion of the historical extremes in the processed dataset. The results show that the inclusion of historical floods and the regionalization of the Log-Pearson type III distribution skew parameter can change the design discharges

Use of historical sources in a study of the 1895 floods on the Danube River and its tributaries

Hydrological data series that are measured on the Danube River are temporally limited. Instrumental flow data can be prolonged by documentary data from historical sources in archives. This paper deals with knowledge gained by studies of historical materials regarding the 1895 catastrophic floods on the Danube River and its tributaries as reflected in the contemporary local press and also in studies of other historical records (flood marks, chronicles, books and photos). Records from the newspapers (Wiener Zeitung, Preßburger Zeitung, The New York Times and Komáromi Lapok) and other analysed sources show the relatively large territorial impact of the floods in March and April 1895, which affected not only the Danube and its tributaries, but also some neighboring basins. Catastrophic consequences of the flood were especially reported from the lower parts of the Danube River (from its confluence with the Drava River up to the mouth of the Black Sea) and the tributaries of the Tisza and Sava rivers. In 1895, the second highest flood after the 2006 flood on the Lower Danube was observed since 1841

Hydrological simulation of flood transformations in the upper Danube River: Case study of large flood events

The problem of understand natural processes as factors that restrict, limit or even jeopardize the interests of human society is currently of great concern. The natural transformation of flood waves is increasingly affected and disturbed by artificial interventions in river basins. The Danube River basin is an area of high economic and water management importance. Channel training can result in changes in the transformation of flood waves and different hydrographic shapes of flood waves compared with the past. The estimation and evolution of the transformation of historical flood waves under recent river conditions is only possible by model simulations. For this purpose a nonlinear reservoir cascade model was constructed. The NLN-Danube nonlinear reservoir river model was used to simulate the transformation of flood waves in four sections of the Danube River from Kienstock (Austria) to Štúrovo (Slovakia) under relatively recent river reach conditions. The model was individually calibrated for two extreme events in August 2002 and June 2013. Some floods that occurred on the Danube during the period of 1991–2002 were used for the validation of the model. The model was used to identify changes in the transformational properties of the Danube channel in the selected river reach for some historical summer floods (1899, 1954 1965 and 1975). Finally, a simulation of flood wave propagation of the most destructive Danube flood of the last millennium (August 1501) is discussed

Identification of long-term high-flow regime changes in selected stations along the Danube River

The aim of the paper is to study spatial and temporal changes in the magnitude, duration and frequency of high flows in the Danube basin. A hydrological series of the mean daily discharges from 20 gauging stations (operated minimally since 1930) were used for the analysis of changes in the daily discharges. The high flow events were classified into three classes: high flow pulses, small floods, and large floods. For each year and for each class, the means of the peak discharges, the number and duration of events, and the rate of changes of the rising and falling limbs of the waves were determined

Monthly stream temperatures along the Danube River: Statistical analysis and predictive modelling with incremental climate change scenarios

The aim of the study is to analyse changes and predict the course of mean monthly water temperatures of the Danube River at various locations for the future. The first part of the study involves conducting a statistical analysis of the annual and monthly average air temperatures, water temperatures, and discharges along the Danube River. The study examines long-term trends, changes in the trends, and multiannual variability in the time series. The second part of the study focuses on simulating the average monthly water temperatures using Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models and nonlinear regression models (NonL), based on two RCP based incremental mean monthly air temperature scenarios. To assess the impact of future climate on stream temperatures, the historical long-term average of the monthly water temperature (1990–2020) was compared with scenarios S1 (2041–2070) and S2 (2071–2100). The simulation results from the two stochastic models, the SARIMA and NonL, showed that in scenario S1, the Danube River’s average monthly water temperature is projected to increase by 0.81/0.82°C (Passau), 0.55/0.71°C (Bratislava), and 0.68/0.56°C (Reni). In scenario S2, the models predict higher increases: 2.83/2.50°C (Passau), 2.06/2.46°C (Bratislava), and 2.52/1.90°C (Reni). Overall, the SARIMA model proved to be more stable and effective in simulating the increase in monthly water temperatures in the Danube River

Sensitivity of runoff due to changes in the characteristics of the water balance in the Danube River region

Climate change is presently a widely discussed subject in relation to alterations in water storage capacity and the components of the hydrological balance within catchment areas. This research study was directed at two main objectives: 1. The indirect estimation of long-term mean annual runoff using an empirical model; 2. The determination of changes in the annual runoff regime of fifty Danube sub-basins. Monthly areal precipitation, discharges, and air temperature data from 1961 to 1990 were collected for selected headwater sub-basins of the Danube River. In the first part, Turc-type empirical equations for the estimation of the long-term average annual runoff R in the Danube basin were employed. The parameters of the empirical equations were determined through nonlinear regression. Given the underestimation of the actual (territorial, balance) evapotranspiration ET values determined from the balance equation, the precipitation totals were corrected by +10%. With a 10% increase in precipitation, the values of balance ET reached the values ET determined by the Budyko–Zubenok–Konstantinov method. In the second part, fifty equations for the estimation of changes in the average annual runoff, depending on increases in the air temperature and changes in the annual precipitation separately for each of the 50 sub-basins, were established. In conclusion, the results suggest that, on average, a 100 mm increase in the average annual rainfall in the Danube River headwater sub-basins, will cause a 50 mm increase in outflow, and a 1 °C increase in the average annual air temperature will lead to a 12 mm decrease in runoff