Optimization of commodity portfolio management

The problem we consider is introduced by Uljarice Bačka, LLC. The core business activities of the company are trade of agriculture commodities, warehousing and distribution and crops production. The main traded goods are: corn, wheat, barely, sunflower, soybean, soybean meal and raw material for crops production: fertilizers, plant protection products, seeds and other. Since a large part of company’s activities relays on corn, predicting the price of that good is of the main interest. In order to make a reasonable predictions, models which incorporate the crucial factors influencing the corn prices are needed. Of course, the important issue is which data are available. Within the data that we obtained, a correlation analysis is performed to point out the relevant parameters. We introduce different methods for obtaining the predictions and provide some numerical results

METHODS OF EVAULATION AND MEASURING OF EWE UDDER MORPHOLOGY TRAITS

Selekcija mliječnih pasmina ovaca donedavno je uglavnom bila usmjerena na povećanje mliječnosti i izlučivanje grla s visokom brojem somatskih stanica u mlijeku. U posljednje vrijeme, u zemljama s razvijenim mliječnim ovčarstvom javlja se sve veći interes za dodavanjem drugih u selekciji važnih funkcionalnih osobina, poput primjerice morfoloških odlika vimena. Prva primijenjena metoda subjektivne procjene ovčjeg vimena bila je klasifikacija ovaca prema obliku ili tipu vimena. Međutim, zbog relativno malog raspona tipova vimena (četiri kategorije) navedena klasifikacija nije omogućavala analizu podataka s kontinuiranom skalom te procjenu genetskih pokazatelja i uzgojnih vrijednosti grla linearnim modelima. U posljednjih desetak godina u svijetu se, usporedno sa širom primjenom strojne mužnja, u provedbi selekcije i uzgojnih programa u različitih mliječnih pasmina ovaca primjenjuje linearno ocjenjivanje (linear scoring) glavnih morfoloških odlika vimena (dubina vimena, kut sisa, dužina sisa i oblik vimena). Objektivno mjerenje morfoloških odlika vimena ovaca je vrlo sporo i naporno te stoga nije rutinsko u mliječnim stadima i uglavnom se provodi u znanstvenim istraživanjima u cilju utvrđivanja povezanosti s proizvodnjom mlijeka i drugim proizvodnim odlikama.Recently, in countries with high sheep milk production interest has been increasing functional traits such as udder morphology. The first practical utilization of udder morphology on dairy sheep was made using tables of udder typology. Classification by types is at disadvantage because BLUP methods are less suited for estimating genetic values for the non-continuous traits involved in these analyses. With the increasing implementation of milking machines, a subjective appraisal of some elementary udder traits (udder depth, teat angle, teat length, udder shape) on the basis of a linear scale was implemented. Different authors have undertaken the use of objective measurements for the characterization of the dairy sheep udder and for the study of the relations with milk yield or other productive traits since the development of machine milking. The use of objective measurements is based on several measures performed directly on each animal and as a consequence it shows some drawbacks such as low speed, laboriousness and expense in personnel making its application infeasible for commercial farms

CLASSIFICATION OF CARCASSES OF OVINE ANIMALS

U državama članicama Europske Unije primjenjuje se jedinstveni sustav klasifikacije ovčjih, odnosno janjećih trupova (European Union, 1992). Klasifikacija trupova provodi se subjektivnim ocjenjivanjem na temelju konformacije trupa i stupnja (ocjene) prekrivenosti trupa masnim tkivom. U sustavu klasifikacije janjećih trupova postoje dvije kategorije: 1) trup 13 kg. Lakši trupovi dijele se u tri težinske kategorije od kojih svaka, ovisno o boji mesa i stupnju prekrivenosti trupa masnim tkivom, sadrži dvije kvalitativne klase; I. i II. Trup teži od 13 kg klasificira se po „E.U.R.O.P.“ klasifikaciji u pet klasa (od E = izvrstan do P = slab). Ocjena prekrivenosti trupa masnim tkivom određuje se posebno za trupove lakše od 13 kg (1 = vrlo slaba, 4 = jaka), a posebno za trupove teže od 13 kg (1 = vrlo slaba, 5 = vrlo jaka). Klasifikacijski standard za trupove ovaca i janjadi napravljen je u svrhu poboljšanja tržišne transparentnosti u sektoru ovčjeg (janjećeg) mesa. U njemu su sadržana detaljna pravila za provođenje klasifikacijskih postupaka i za određivanje tržnih cijena mesa na temelju pojedinih klasa.The European Union (EU) requires Member States to make use of a classification system for ovine carcasses (European Union, 1992). The classification of carcasses is based on subjective evaluation of carcass conformation and the degree of fat cover. The lamb carcass classification system comprises two different schemes: for carcasses weighing 13 kg. Lighter carcasses are divided into three categories according to weight. Each weight category includes two quality classes, depending on meat color and fatness score. Carcasses weighing more than 13 kg are evaluated according to conformation (E.U.R.O.P. classification: five classes, from E =”good”, to P =”bad” conformation). Degree of fatness of the carcasses is assessed separately for carcasses 13 kg (1 =”very lean”, to 5 =”very fat). Among the aims of this classification is to improve market transparency in sheep meat trade. It has detailed rules for classification of ovine animals and the determination of market prices which are established on the basis of this classification standard

SLAUGHTER CHARACTERISTICS OF CRES, PAG AND TRAVNICKA PRAMENKA LAMBS

Cilj istraživanja bio je utvrditi klaoničke pokazatelje janjadi (klaoničku masu, ma-su toplog trupa, randman te udio pojedinih organa u trupu) creske ovce, paške ov-ce i travničke pramenke, te utvrditi utjecaj pasmine i spola na istraživane klaoni-čke pokazatelje. U tu svrhu zaklano je ukupno 131 janje; od toga 37 (25 muške i 12 ženske) janjadi travničke pramenke prosječne dobi 3,5 mjeseca, 44 creske ja-njadi (22 muška i 22 ženske) prosječne dobi 2,5 mjeseca i 50 paške janjadi (28 muške i 22 ženske) prosječne dobi 36 dana. Navedene razlike u dobi janjadi pri klanju proizlaze iz različitih tehnologija koje se primjenjuju za pojedine pasmi-ne. Klanje janjadi obavljeno je klasičnom metodom obrade koja uključuje iskr-varenje presijecanjem velikih krvnih žila na vratu (v. jugularis externa i a. ca-rotis communis), odvajanje kože i donjih dijelova nogu te vađenje iznutrica. Neposredno prije klanja sva janjad je pojedinačno vagana. Utvrđene prosječne tjelesne mase janjadi prije klanja između pasmina bile su različite (janjad travni-čke pramenke 28,05 kg : 20,02 kg creska janjad : 11,18 kg paška janjad) što je ponajviše posljedica različite dobi janjadi. Također je masa toplog trupa janjadi travničke pramenke bila značajno veća (P<0,01) od mase trupa janjadi drugih dviju pasmina (13,93 kg : 10,74 kg creska : 6,25 kg paška). Utvrđen je značajno veći (P<0,05) randman paške janjadi (55,82%) u odnosu na cresku (53,37%) i ja-njad travničke pramenke (49,49%). Uz to, u janjadi travničke pramenke i paške ovce utvrđen je značajan utjecaj spola na praćene klaoničke pokazatelje (P<0,05). Rezultati ovog istraživanja potvrđuju vrlo izražen utjecaj ovčarske tra-dicije, proizvodnje namjene i navika potrošača na klaoničku masu janjadi, dob janjadi pri klanju i masu trupa.The aim of this work was to determine slaughter characteristics (slaughter weight, hot car-cass weight, dressing percentage and non-carcass components proportion) of lambs from some breeds (Cres sheep, Pag sheep and Travnicka pramenka sheep) offered on Croatian meat market as whole carcass. Also, the aim was to determine the differences in carcass traits between those breeds and lamb sexes. For that purpose, 37 Travnicka pramenka lambs (25 male and 12 female) on average 3.5 months old, 44 Cres lambs (22 male and 22 female) on average 2.5 months old and 50 Pag lambs (28 male and 22 female) on average 36 days old. The differences in age of lambs at slaughter are due to different production system applied for each breed. The lambs were slaugh-tered and processed at local abattoirs in Lika and on islands Cres and Pag. Following slaughter, hot carcasses and ‘’non-carcass’’ components were weighed. The average slaughter weights between Travnicka pramenka lambs, Cres lambs and Pag lambs were significantly different (28.05 kg, 20.02 kg and 11.18 kg, respectively). The hot carcass weight of Travnicka pramenka lambs was signi-ficantly higher than hot carcass weight of Cres and Pag lambs (13.93 kg vs. 10.74 and 6.25 kg). However, Pag lambs had significantly higher dressing percentage than Cres and Travnicka pra-menka lambs (55.82% vs. 53.37 and 49.49%). Also, it was determined that sex had significant influ-ence on slaughter characteristics of lambs from investigated breeds. The results of this research confirm very strong influence of tradition, production goal and habits of consumers on slaughter weight, age and carcass weight of lambs. Primljeno: 15.7.2007

EXTERIOR CHARACTERISTICS OF DIFFERENT CATEGORIES OF CROATIAN COLOURED GOAT

Cilj istraživanja bio je komisijskom prosudbom vanjštine i određenim tjelesnim izmjerama utvrditi osnovne eksterijerne odlike različitih kategorija hrvatske šarene koze. U tu svrhu su ukupno na četiri stada koza, i to dva sa šireg područja južnog Velebita, i dva s područja Kamešnice i Dinare, provedena ocjenjivanja i mjerenja vanjštine izvornih hrvatskih šarenih koza različite dobi, spola i tjelesne razvijenosti. Istraživanjem je ukupno bilo obuhvaćeno 651 grlo, od toga 90 šilježica prosječne dobi 13 mjeseci, 146 mladih koza prosječne dobi 34 mjeseca, 380 odraslih koza prosječne dobi 72 mjeseca, 28 jarčića (muške šilježadi) prosječne dobi 11 mjeseci te 7 mladih jarčeva prosječne dobi 30 mjeseci. Ocjenjivanje se sastojalo od subjektivne komisijske prosudbe vanjštine, procjene dobi grla po zubima, uzimanja pojedinačnih tjelesnih mjera Lydtinovim štapom i mjernom vrpcom te pojedinačnih vaganja. Tijelo hrvatske šarene koze prekriveno je kostrijeti različite boje, najčešće crno-bijele, s tim da postoje i potpuno crna, smeđa i siva grla. Vrat koza je uzak i plosnat, a u pojedinih grla s donje strane vidljive su malene resice. Glava je srednje duga, ravnog profila, ponekad blago ugnuta. U većine istraživanih grla utvrđeno je postojanje brade i rogova što se može smatrati pasminskom odlikom. Prosječna visina do grebena, odraslih, potpuno razvijenih koza, bila je 61,32 cm, dužina trupa 69,06 cm, širina prsa 17,83 cm, dubina prsa 30,64 cm, opseg prsa 84,25 cm, opseg cjevanice 8,33 cm, dužina rogova 29,49 cm i tjelesna masa 44,01 kg. Mlade koze se odlikuju dobrom tjelesnom razvijenošću (postigle su u prosjeku 96% visine grebena i 95% dužine trupa odraslih koza). Sve utvrđene tjelesne mjere rasplodnih mladih jarčeva bile su veće od onih u koza iste dobne kategorije: visina grebena 65,29 cm, dužina trupa 72,57 cm, širina prsa 18,14 cm, dubina prsa 32,85 cm, opseg prsa 88,42 cm, opseg cjevanice 11,03 i tjelesna masa 51,28 kg.The aim of this research was to determine exterior characteristics of different categories of Croatan coloured goats, using a commission evaluation and body measurements. Thus, totally 651 Croatian coloured goats were picked out from totally 4 flocks: two flocks located in south Velebit area and two flocks located in the area of Dinara and Kamešnica, and divided into age groups according to the teeth: 90 female hoggets about 13 months old; 146 young goats between 2 and 3.5 years old; 380 adult does older than 3.5 years; 28 male kids about 11 months old and 7 young bucks about 30 months old. The body of investigated animals (except the legs) is overgrown with thick, lengthy and dense hair of a black-white, brown or grey-white colour and rarely of a single colour. The head is medium sized, with obligatory horns mostly curving backwards, shaped like a sabre. The neck is narrow and flat, often with tassels hanging under the throat. Hind part of the trunk is more developed than the front part. The chest and scallop are narrow. Legs are thin, but stable, with well developed hoofs that are mostly black. The mean crest height of adult goats was 61.32 cm, the trunk length 69.06 cm, the chest width 17.83 cm, the chest depth 30.64 cm, the circumference of the chest 84.25 cm, the circumference of the leg 8.33 cm, the length of the horns 29.49 cm and the body weight was 44.01 kg. In comparison with adult goats, young does have well developed body conformation (they obtain 96% of crest height and 95% of the trunk length of adult goats). All established body measurements of young bucks were higher than in goats of the same age groups: the crest height was 65.29 cm, the trunk length 72.57 cm, the chest width 18.14 cm, the chest depth 32.85 cm, the circumference of the chest 88.42 cm, the circumference of the leg 11.03 cm and the body weight was 51.28 kg