Perspective issues in the CBR`s exchange rate policy

Analysis of fundamental factors of the CBR’s exchange rate lay at the basis of this publication. The authors review papers which address problems of index construction of real effective exchange rate as well as models of evaluation of the real equilibrium exchange rate. They also analyze various versions of index construction for the CBR’s exchange rate and evaluate real “equilibrium” Ruble exchange rate.equilibrium exchange rate, effective rate, central bank

Анализ независимости центральных банков РФ, стран СНГ и Восточной Европы

On the basis of an overview of theoretical and empirical studies on central banks’ independence, the paper assesses the independence of the central banks of the former USSR republics including the RF, as well as those of East European countries. An analysis of the potential existence of a relationship between the banks’ independence and some major economic indices, such as inflation, economic activity, and budget deficit, was also performed

Анализ факторов динамики обменного курса рубля

Analysis of fundamental factors of the CBR’s exchange rate lay at the basis of this publication. The authors review papers which address problems of index construction of real effective exchange rate as well as models of evaluation of the real equilibrium exchange rate. They also analyze various versions of index construction for the CBR’s exchange rate and evaluate real “equilibrium” Ruble exchange rate

Анализ факторов динамики обменного курса рубля

Analysis of fundamental factors of the CBR’s exchange rate lay at the basis of this publication. The authors review papers which address problems of index construction of real effective exchange rate as well as models of evaluation of the real equilibrium exchange rate. They also analyze various versions of index construction for the CBR’s exchange rate and evaluate real “equilibrium” Ruble exchange rate

Factors of global inflation in 2021–2022

The paper examines the factors of global inflation acceleration in 2021–2022. We consider primarily the developed economies, where rates of inflation over the last two years have exceeded multi-year highs and have significantly exceeded target levels. We find that the cause of accelerating inflation was an imbalance between aggregate demand, which started to increase rapidly in the second half of 2020 as economies began to adapt to the circumstances of the pandemic, and aggregate supply, which encountered persistent constraints associated with interruptions in global supply chains. Significant support for demand was provided by fiscal stimulus that was unprecedented in scale and was accompanied by policy interest rates reaching extremely low levels, and by active injections of liquidity by central banks. The willingness of governments to implement ultra-expansionary monetary and fiscal policies can to a considerable degree be attributed to the fact that during the previous decade large budget deficits, zero interest rates, and programs of quantitative easing had not resulted in macroeconomic destabilization. We examine the view of many central banks that the inflationary wave would not be long-lasting, which was a crucial reason for delaying the interest rates increase. We consider the conditions in which the leading economies might fall into the stagflation trap