Tetrachloroethylene-contaminated drinking water in Massachusetts and the risk of colon-rectum, lung, and other cancers.

We conducted a population-based case-control study to evaluate the relationship between cancer of the colon-rectum (n = 326), lung (n = 252), brain (n = 37), and pancreas (n = 37), and exposure to tetrachloroethylene (PCE) from public drinking water. Subjects were exposed to PCE when it leached from the vinyl lining of drinking-water distribution pipes. Relative delivered dose of PCE was estimated using a model that took into account residential location, years of residence, water flow, and pipe characteristics. Adjusted odds ratios (ORs) for lung cancer were moderately elevated among subjects whose exposure level was above the 90th percentile whether or not a latent period was assumed [ORs and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), 3.7 (1.0-11.7), 3.3 (0.6-13.4), 6.2 (1.1-31.6), and 19.3 (2.5-141.7) for 0, 5, 7, and 9 years of latency, respectively]. The adjusted ORs for colon-rectum cancer were modestly elevated among ever-exposed subjects as more years of latency were assumed [OR and CI, 1.7 (0.8-3.8) and 2.0 (0.6-5.8) for 11 and 13 years of latency, respectively]. These elevated ORs stemmed mainly from associations with rectal cancer. Adjusted ORs for rectal cancer among ever-exposed subjects were more elevated [OR and CI, 2.6 (0. 8-6.7) and 3.1 (0.7-10.9) for 11 and 13 years of latency, respectively] than were corresponding estimates for colon cancer [OR and CI, 1.3 (0.5-3.5) and 1.5 (0.3-5.8) for 11 and 13 years of latency, respectively]. These results provide evidence for an association between PCE-contaminated public drinking water and cancer of the lung and, possibly, cancer of the colon-rectum

Tetrachloroethylene-contaminated drinking water and the risk of breast cancer.

We conducted a population-based case-control study to evaluate the relationship between cases of breast cancer and exposure to tetrachloroethylene (PCE) from public drinking water ( n = 258 cases and 686 controls). Women were exposed to PCE when it leached from the vinyl lining of water distribution pipes. The relative delivered dose was estimated using an algorithm that accounted for residential history, water flow, and pipe characteristics. Only small increases in breast cancer risk were seen among ever-exposed women either when latency was ignored or when 5 to 15 years of latency was considered. No or small increases were seen among highly exposed women either when latency was ignored or when 5 years of latency was considered. However, the adjusted odds ratios (ORs) were more increased for highly exposed women when 7 and 9 years of latency, respectively, were considered (OR 1.5 95% CI 0.5-4.7 and OR 2.3, 95% CI 0.6-8.8 for the 75th percentile, and OR 2.7, 95% CI 0.4-15.8 and OR 7.6, 95% CI 0.9-161.3 for the 90th percentile). The number of highly exposed women was too small for meaningful analysis when more years of latency were considered. Because firm conclusions from these data are limited, we recently undertook a new study with a large number of more recently diagnosed cases

Developing consistent data and methods to measure the public health impacts of ambient air quality for Environmental Public Health Tracking: progress to date and future directions

Environmental Public Health Tracking (EPHT) staff at the state and national levels are developing nationally consistent data and methods to estimate the impact of ozone and fine particulate matter on hospitalizations for asthma and myocardial infarction. Pilot projects have demonstrated the feasibility of pooling state hospitalization data and linking these data to The United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) statistically based ambient air estimates for ozone and fine particulates. Tools were developed to perform case-crossover analyses to estimate concentration–response (C-R) functions. A weakness of analyzing one state at a time is that the effects are relatively small compared to their confidence intervals. The EPHT program will explore ways to statistically combine the results of peer-reviewed analyses from across the country to provide more robust C-R functions and health impact estimates at the local level. One challenge will be to routinely share data for these types of analyses at fine geographic and temporal scales without disclosing confidential information. Another challenge will be to develop C-R estimates which take into account time, space, or other relevant effect modifiers

Clogging the machinery: the BBC's experiment in science coordination, 1949–1953

In 1949, physicist Mark Oliphant criticised the BBC’s handling of science in a letter to the Director General William Haley. It initiated a chain of events which led to the experimental appointment of a science adviser, Henry Dale, to improve the ‘coordination’ of science broadcasts. The experiment failed, but the episode revealed conflicting views of the BBC’s responsibility towards science held by scientists and BBC staff. For the scientists, science had a special status, both as knowledge and as an activity, which in their view obligated the BBC to make special arrangements for it. BBC staff, however, had their own professional procedures which they were unwilling to abandon. The events unfolded within a few years of the end of the Second World War, when social attitudes to science had been coloured by the recent conflict, and when the BBC itself was under scrutiny from the William Beveridge’s Committee. The BBC was also embarking on new initiatives, notably the revival of adult education. These contextual factors bear on the story, which is about the relationship between a public service broadcaster and the external constituencies it relies on, but must appear to remain independent from. The article therefore extends earlier studies showing how external bodies have attempted to manipulate the inner workings of the BBC to their own advantage (e.g. those by Doctor and Karpf) by looking at the little-researched area of science broadcasting. The article is largely based on unpublished archive documents

Spatial analysis of lung, colorectal, and breast cancer on Cape Cod: An application of generalized additive models to case-control data

BACKGROUND: The availability of geographic information from cancer and birth defect registries has increased public demands for investigation of perceived disease clusters. Many neighborhood-level cluster investigations are methodologically problematic, while maps made from registry data often ignore latency and many known risk factors. Population-based case-control and cohort studies provide a stronger foundation for spatial epidemiology because potential confounders and disease latency can be addressed. METHODS: We investigated the association between residence and colorectal, lung, and breast cancer on upper Cape Cod, Massachusetts (USA) using extensive data on covariates and residential history from two case-control studies for 1983–1993. We generated maps using generalized additive models, smoothing on longitude and latitude while adjusting for covariates. The resulting continuous surface estimates disease rates relative to the whole study area. We used permutation tests to examine the overall importance of location in the model and identify areas of increased and decreased risk. RESULTS: Maps of colorectal cancer were relatively flat. Assuming 15 years of latency, lung cancer was significantly elevated just northeast of the Massachusetts Military Reservation, although the result did not hold when we restricted to residences of longest duration. Earlier non-spatial epidemiology had found a weak association between lung cancer and proximity to gun and mortar positions on the reservation. Breast cancer hot spots tended to increase in magnitude as we increased latency and adjusted for covariates, indicating that confounders were partly hiding these areas. Significant breast cancer hot spots were located near known groundwater plumes and the Massachusetts Military Reservation. DISCUSSION: Spatial epidemiology of population-based case-control studies addresses many methodological criticisms of cluster studies and generates new exposure hypotheses. Our results provide evidence for spatial clustering of breast cancer on upper Cape Cod. The analysis suggests further investigation of the potential association between breast cancer and pollution plumes based on detailed exposure modeling

Impact of tetrachloroethylene-contaminated drinking water on the risk of breast cancer: Using a dose model to assess exposure in a case-control study

BACKGROUND: A population-based case-control study was undertaken in 1997 to investigate the association between tetrachloroethylene (PCE) exposure from public drinking water and breast cancer among permanent residents of the Cape Cod region of Massachusetts. PCE, a volatile organic chemical, leached from the vinyl lining of certain water distribution pipes into drinking water from the late 1960s through the early 1980s. The measure of exposure in the original study, referred to as the relative delivered dose (RDD), was based on an amount of PCE in the tap water entering the home and estimated with a mathematical model that involved only characteristics of the distribution system. METHODS: In the current analysis, we constructed a personal delivered dose (PDD) model that included personal information on tap water consumption and bathing habits so that inhalation, ingestion, and dermal absorption were also considered. We reanalyzed the association between PCE and breast cancer and compared the results to the original RDD analysis of subjects with complete data. RESULTS: The PDD model produced higher adjusted odds ratios than the RDD model for exposures > 50(th )and >75(th )percentile when shorter latency periods were considered, and for exposures < 50(th )and >90(th )percentile when longer latency periods were considered. Overall, however, the results from the PDD analysis did not differ greatly from the RDD analysis. CONCLUSION: The inputs that most heavily influenced the PDD model were initial water concentration and duration of exposure. These variables were also included in the RDD model. In this study population, personal factors like bath and shower temperature, bathing frequencies and durations, and water consumption did not differ greatly among subjects, so including this information in the model did not significantly change subjects' exposure classification

Spatial analysis of bladder, kidney, and pancreatic cancer on upper Cape Cod: an application of generalized additive models to case-control data

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In 1988, elevated cancer incidence in upper Cape Cod, Massachusetts prompted a large epidemiological study of nine cancers to investigate possible environmental risk factors. Positive associations were observed, but explained only a portion of the excess cancer incidence. This case-control study provided detailed information on individual-level covariates and residential history that can be spatially analyzed using generalized additive models (GAMs) and geographical information systems (GIS).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We investigated the association between residence and bladder, kidney, and pancreatic cancer on upper Cape Cod. We estimated adjusted odds ratios using GAMs, smoothing on location. A 40-year residential history allowed for latency restrictions. We mapped spatially continuous odds ratios using GIS and identified statistically significant clusters using permutation tests.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Maps of bladder cancer are essentially flat ignoring latency, but show a statistically significant hot spot near known Massachusetts Military Reservation (MMR) groundwater plumes when 15 years latency is assumed. The kidney cancer map shows significantly increased ORs in the south of the study area and decreased ORs in the north.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Spatial epidemiology using individual level data from population-based studies addresses many methodological criticisms of cluster studies and generates new exposure hypotheses. Our results provide evidence for spatial clustering of bladder cancer near MMR plumes that suggest further investigation using detailed exposure modeling.</p

Evaluation of the Webler-Brown model for estimating tetrachloroethylene exposure from vinyl-lined asbestos-cement pipes

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>From May 1968 through March 1980, vinyl-lined asbestos-cement (VL/AC) water distribution pipes were installed in New England to avoid taste and odor problems associated with asbestos-cement pipes. The vinyl resin was applied to the inner pipe surface in a solution of tetrachloroethylene (perchloroethylene, PCE). Substantial amounts of PCE remained in the liner and subsequently leached into public drinking water supplies.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Once aware of the leaching problem and prior to remediation (April-November 1980), Massachusetts regulators collected drinking water samples from VL/AC pipes to determine the extent and severity of the PCE contamination. This study compares newly obtained historical records of PCE concentrations in water samples (n = 88) with concentrations estimated using an exposure model employed in epidemiologic studies on the cancer risk associated with PCE-contaminated drinking water. The exposure model was developed by Webler and Brown to estimate the mass of PCE delivered to subjects' residences.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The mean and median measured PCE concentrations in the water samples were 66 and 0.5 μg/L, respectively, and the range extended from non-detectable to 2432 μg/L. The model-generated concentration estimates and water sample concentrations were moderately correlated (Spearman rank correlation coefficient = 0.48, p < 0.0001). Correlations were higher in samples taken at taps and spigots vs. hydrants (ρ = 0.84 vs. 0.34), in areas with simple vs. complex geometry (ρ = 0.51 vs. 0.38), and near pipes installed in 1973–1976 vs. other years (ρ = 0.56 vs. 0.42 for 1968–1972 and 0.37 for 1977–1980). Overall, 24% of the variance in measured PCE concentrations was explained by the model-generated concentration estimates (p < 0.0001). Almost half of the water samples had undetectable concentrations of PCE. Undetectable levels were more common in areas with the earliest installed VL/AC pipes, at the beginning and middle of VL/AC pipes, at hydrants, and in complex pipe configurations.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>PCE concentration estimates generated using the Webler-Brown model were moderately correlated with measured water concentrations. The present analysis suggests that the exposure assessment process used in prior epidemiological studies could be improved with more accurate characterization of water flow. This study illustrates one method of validating an exposure model in an epidemiological study when historical measurements are not available.</p

Risk of breast cancer following exposure to tetrachloroethylene-contaminated drinking water in Cape Cod, Massachusetts: reanalysis of a case-control study using a modified exposure assessment

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Tetrachloroethylene (PCE) is an important occupational chemical used in metal degreasing and drycleaning and a prevalent drinking water contaminant. Exposure often occurs with other chemicals but it occurred alone in a pattern that reduced the likelihood of confounding in a unique scenario on Cape Cod, Massachusetts. We previously found a small to moderate increased risk of breast cancer among women with the highest exposures using a simple exposure model. We have taken advantage of technical improvements in publically available software to incorporate a more sophisticated determination of water flow and direction to see if previous results were robust to more accurate exposure assessment.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The current analysis used PCE exposure estimates generated with the addition of water distribution modeling software (EPANET 2.0) to test model assumptions, compare exposure distributions to prior methods, and re-examine the risk of breast cancer. In addition, we applied data smoothing to examine nonlinear relationships between breast cancer and exposure. We also compared a set of measured PCE concentrations in water samples collected in 1980 to modeled estimates.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Thirty-nine percent of individuals considered unexposed in prior epidemiological analyses were considered exposed using the current method, but mostly at low exposure levels. As a result, the exposure distribution was shifted downward resulting in a lower value for the 90th percentile, the definition of "high exposure" in prior analyses. The current analyses confirmed a modest increase in the risk of breast cancer for women with high PCE exposure levels defined by either the 90th percentile (adjusted ORs 1.0-1.5 for 0-19 year latency assumptions) or smoothing analysis cut point (adjusted ORs 1.3-2.0 for 0-15 year latency assumptions). Current exposure estimates had a higher correlation with PCE concentrations in water samples (Spearman correlation coefficient = 0.65, p < 0.0001) than estimates generated using the prior method (0.54, p < 0.0001).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The incorporation of sophisticated flow estimates in the exposure assessment method shifted the PCE exposure distribution downward, but did not meaningfully affect the exposure ranking of subjects or the strength of the association with the risk of breast cancer found in earlier analyses. Thus, the current analyses show a slightly elevated breast cancer risk for highly exposed women, with strengthened exposure assessment and minimization of misclassification by using the latest technology.</p