Bet-hedging strategies in expanding populations

In ecology, species can mitigate their extinction risks in uncertain environments by diversifying individual phenotypes. This observation is quantified by the theory of bet-hedging, which provides a reason for the degree of phenotypic diversity observed even in clonal populations. Bet-hedging in well-mixed populations is rather well understood. However, many species underwent range expansions during their evolutionary history, and the importance of phenotypic diversity in such scenarios still needs to be understood. In this paper, we develop a theory of bet-hedging for populations colonizing new, unknown environments that fluctuate either in space or time. In this case, we find that bet-hedging is a more favorable strategy than in well-mixed populations. For slow rates of variation, temporal and spatial fluctuations lead to different outcomes. In spatially fluctuating environments, bet-hedging is favored compared to temporally fluctuating environments. In the limit of frequent environmental variation, no opportunity for bet-hedging exists, regardless of the nature of the environmental fluctuations. For the same model, bet-hedging is never an advantageous strategy in the well-mixed case, supporting the view that range expansions strongly promote diversification. These conclusions are robust against stochasticity induced by finite population sizes. Our findings shed light on the importance of phenotypic heterogeneity in range expansions, paving the way to novel approaches to understand how biodiversity emerges and is maintained.This study has been partially financed by the Consejería de Conocimiento, Investigación y Universidad, Junta de Andalucía and European Regional Development Fund (ERDF), ref. SOMM17/6105/UGR (to MAM)

Quenched disorder forbids discontinuous transitions in nonequilibrium low-dimensional systems

Quenched disorder affects significantly the behavior of phase transitions. The Imry-Ma-Aizenman-Wehr-Berker argument prohibits first-order or discontinuous transitions and their concomitant phase coexistence in low-dimensional equilibrium systems in the presence of random fields. Instead, discontinuous transitions become rounded or even continuous once disorder is introduced. Here we show that phase coexistence and first-order phase transitions are also precluded in nonequilibrium low-dimensional systems with quenched disorder: discontinuous transitions in two-dimensional systems with absorbing states become continuous in the presence of quenched disorder. We also study the universal features of this disorder-induced criticality and find them to be compatible with the universality class of the directed percolation with quenched disorder. Thus, we conclude that first-order transitions do not exist in low-dimensional disordered systems, not even in genuinely nonequilibrium systems with absorbing states

Intermittent percolation and the scale-free distribution of vegetation clusters

Understanding the causes and effects of spatial vegetation patterns is a fundamental problem in ecology, especially because these can be used as early predictors of catastrophic shifts such as desertification processes. Empirical studies of the vegetation cover in some areas such as drylands and semiarid regions have revealed the existence of vegetation patches of broadly diverse sizes. In particular, the probability distribution of patch sizes can be fitted by a power law, i.e. vegetation patches are approximately scale free up to some maximum size. Different explanatory mechanisms, such as plant–plant interactions and plant-water feedback loops have been proposed to rationalize the emergence of such scale-free patterns, yet a full understanding has not been reached. Using a simple model for vegetation dynamics, we show that environmental temporal variability—a well-recognized feature of semiarid environments—promotes in a robust way (i.e. for a wide range of parameter values) the emergence of vegetation patches with broadly distributed cluster sizes. Furthermore, this result is related to a percolation phenomenon that occurs in an intermittent or fluctuating way. The model also reveals that the power-law exponents fitting the tails of the probability distributions depend on the overall vegetation-cover density, in agreement with empirical observations. This supports the idea that environmental variability plays a key role in the formation of scale-free vegetation patterns. From a practical viewpoint, this may be of importance to predict the effects that changes in environmental conditions may have in real ecosystems. From a theoretical side, our study sheds new light on a novel type of percolation phenomena occurring under temporally-varying external conditions, that still needs further work to be fully characterized.Spanish Ministry and Agencia Estatal de investigacion (AEI) FIS2017-84256-PJunta de AndaluciaEuropean Union (EU) A-FQM-175-UGR18 SOMM17/6105/UG

Safety and immunogenicity of the protein-based PHH-1V compared to BNT162b2 as a heterologous SARS-CoV-2 booster vaccine in adults vaccinated against COVID-19 : a multicentre, randomised, double-blind, non-inferiority phase IIb trial

A SARS-CoV-2 protein-based heterodimer vaccine, PHH-1V, has been shown to be safe and well-tolerated in healthy young adults in a first-in-human, Phase I/IIa study dose-escalation trial. Here, we report the interim results of the Phase IIb HH-2, where the immunogenicity and safety of a heterologous booster with PHH-1V is assessed versus a homologous booster with BNT162b2 at 14, 28 and 98 days after vaccine administration. The HH-2 study is an ongoing multicentre, randomised, active-controlled, double-blind, non-inferiority Phase IIb trial, where participants 18 years or older who had received two doses of BNT162b2 were randomly assigned in a 2:1 ratio to receive a booster dose of vaccine-either heterologous (PHH-1V group) or homologous (BNT162b2 group)-in 10 centres in Spain. Eligible subjects were allocated to treatment stratified by age group (18-64 versus ≥65 years) with approximately 10% of the sample enrolled in the older age group. The primary endpoints were humoral immunogenicity measured by changes in levels of neutralizing antibodies (PBNA) against the ancestral Wuhan-Hu-1 strain after the PHH-1V or the BNT162b2 boost, and the safety and tolerability of PHH-1V as a boost. The secondary endpoints were to compare changes in levels of neutralizing antibodies against different variants of SARS-CoV-2 and the T-cell responses towards the SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein peptides. The exploratory endpoint was to assess the number of subjects with SARS-CoV-2 infections ≥14 days after PHH-1V booster. This study is ongoing and is registered with , . From 15 November 2021, 782 adults were randomly assigned to PHH-1V (n = 522) or BNT162b2 (n = 260) boost vaccine groups. The geometric mean titre (GMT) ratio of neutralizing antibodies on days 14, 28 and 98, shown as BNT162b2 active control versus PHH-1V, was, respectively, 1.68 (p < 0.0001), 1.31 (p = 0.0007) and 0.86 (p = 0.40) for the ancestral Wuhan-Hu-1 strain; 0.62 (p < 0.0001), 0.65 (p < 0.0001) and 0.56 (p = 0.003) for the Beta variant; 1.01 (p = 0.92), 0.88 (p = 0.11) and 0.52 (p = 0.0003) for the Delta variant; and 0.59 (p ≤ 0.0001), 0.66 (p < 0.0001) and 0.57 (p = 0.0028) for the Omicron BA.1 variant. Additionally, PHH-1V as a booster dose induced a significant increase of CD4 + and CD8 + T-cells expressing IFN-γ on day 14. There were 458 participants who experienced at least one adverse event (89.3%) in the PHH-1V and 238 (94.4%) in the BNT162b2 group. The most frequent adverse events were injection site pain (79.7% and 89.3%), fatigue (27.5% and 42.1%) and headache (31.2 and 40.1%) for the PHH-1V and the BNT162b2 groups, respectively. A total of 52 COVID-19 cases occurred from day 14 post-vaccination (10.14%) for the PHH-1V group and 30 (11.90%) for the BNT162b2 group (p = 0.45), and none of the subjects developed severe COVID-19. Our interim results from the Phase IIb HH-2 trial show that PHH-1V as a heterologous booster vaccine, when compared to BNT162b2, although it does not reach a non-inferior neutralizing antibody response against the Wuhan-Hu-1 strain at days 14 and 28 after vaccination, it does so at day 98. PHH-1V as a heterologous booster elicits a superior neutralizing antibody response against the previous circulating Beta and the currently circulating Omicron BA.1 SARS-CoV-2 variants in all time points assessed, and for the Delta variant on day 98 as well. Moreover, the PHH-1V boost also induces a strong and balanced T-cell response. Concerning the safety profile, subjects in the PHH-1V group report significantly fewer adverse events than those in the BNT162b2 group, most of mild intensity, and both vaccine groups present comparable COVID-19 breakthrough cases, none of them severe. HIPRA SCIENTIFIC, S.L.U

Occurrence of SARS-CoV-2 viremia is associated with genetic variants of genes related to COVID-19 pathogenesis

IntroductionSARS-CoV-2 viral load has been related to COVID-19 severity. The main aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship between SARS-CoV-2 viremia and SNPs in genes previously studied by our group as predictors of COVID-19 severity.Materials and methodsRetrospective observational study including 340 patients hospitalized for COVID-19 in the University Hospital La Princesa between March 2020 and December 2021, with at least one viremia determination. Positive viremia was considered when viral load was above the quantifiable threshold (20 copies/ml). A total of 38 SNPs were genotyped. To study their association with viremia a multivariate logistic regression was performed.ResultsThe mean age of the studied population was 64.5 years (SD 16.6), 60.9% patients were male and 79.4% white non-Hispanic. Only 126 patients (37.1%) had at least one positive viremia. After adjustment by confounders, the presence of the minor alleles of rs2071746 (HMOX1; T/T genotype OR 9.9 p &lt; 0.0001), rs78958998 (probably associated with SERPING1 expression; A/T genotype OR 2.3, p = 0.04 and T/T genotype OR 12.9, p &lt; 0.0001), and rs713400 (eQTL for TMPRSS2; C/T + T/T genotype OR 1.86, p = 0.10) were associated with higher risk of viremia, whereas the minor alleles of rs11052877 (CD69; A/G genotype OR 0.5, p = 0.04 and G/G genotype OR 0.3, p = 0.01), rs2660 (OAS1; A/G genotype OR 0.6, p = 0.08), rs896 (VIPR1; T/T genotype OR 0.4, p = 0.02) and rs33980500 (TRAF3IP2; C/T + T/T genotype OR 0.3, p = 0.01) were associated with lower risk of viremia.ConclusionGenetic variants in HMOX1 (rs2071746), SERPING1 (rs78958998), TMPRSS2 (rs713400), CD69 (rs11052877), TRAF3IP2 (rs33980500), OAS1 (rs2660) and VIPR1 (rs896) could explain heterogeneity in SARS-CoV-2 viremia in our population

Spread of a SARS-CoV-2 variant through Europe in the summer of 2020

[EN] Following its emergence in late 2019, the spread of SARS-CoV-21,2 has been tracked by phylogenetic analysis of viral genome sequences in unprecedented detail3,4,5. Although the virus spread globally in early 2020 before borders closed, intercontinental travel has since been greatly reduced. However, travel within Europe resumed in the summer of 2020. Here we report on a SARS-CoV-2 variant, 20E (EU1), that was identified in Spain in early summer 2020 and subsequently spread across Europe. We find no evidence that this variant has increased transmissibility, but instead demonstrate how rising incidence in Spain, resumption of travel, and lack of effective screening and containment may explain the variant’s success. Despite travel restrictions, we estimate that 20E (EU1) was introduced hundreds of times to European countries by summertime travellers, which is likely to have undermined local efforts to minimize infection with SARS-CoV-2. Our results illustrate how a variant can rapidly become dominant even in the absence of a substantial transmission advantage in favourable epidemiological settings. Genomic surveillance is critical for understanding how travel can affect transmission of SARS-CoV-2, and thus for informing future containment strategies as travel resumes.S

Pervasive gaps in Amazonian ecological research

Biodiversity loss is one of the main challenges of our time,1,2 and attempts to address it require a clear un derstanding of how ecological communities respond to environmental change across time and space.3,4 While the increasing availability of global databases on ecological communities has advanced our knowledge of biodiversity sensitivity to environmental changes,5–7 vast areas of the tropics remain understudied.8–11 In the American tropics, Amazonia stands out as the world’s most diverse rainforest and the primary source of Neotropical biodiversity,12 but it remains among the least known forests in America and is often underrepre sented in biodiversity databases.13–15 To worsen this situation, human-induced modifications16,17 may elim inate pieces of the Amazon’s biodiversity puzzle before we can use them to understand how ecological com munities are responding. To increase generalization and applicability of biodiversity knowledge,18,19 it is thus crucial to reduce biases in ecological research, particularly in regions projected to face the most pronounced environmental changes. We integrate ecological community metadata of 7,694 sampling sites for multiple or ganism groups in a machine learning model framework to map the research probability across the Brazilian Amazonia, while identifying the region’s vulnerability to environmental change. 15%–18% of the most ne glected areas in ecological research are expected to experience severe climate or land use changes by 2050. This means that unless we take immediate action, we will not be able to establish their current status, much less monitor how it is changing and what is being lostinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio