Industry views on water resources planning methods – prospects for change in England and Wales

This paper describes a qualitative study of practitioner perspectives on regulated water resources planning practice in England and Wales. The study focuses on strengths and weaknesses of existing practice and the case for change towards a risk-based approach informed by stochastic modelling assessments. In-depth, structured interviews were conducted to capture the views of planners, regulators and consultants closely involved in the planning process. We found broad agreement that the existing water availability assessment methods are fallible; they lack transparency, are often highly subjective and may fail to adequately expose problems of resilience. While most practitioners believe these issues warrant a more detailed examination of risk in the planning process, few believe there is a strong case for a fundamental shift towards risk-based planning informed by stochastic modelling assessments. The study identifies perceived business risks associated with change and exposes widespread scepticism of stochastic methods

On the dependability and feasibility of layperson ratings of divergent thinking

A new system for subjective rating of responses to divergent thinking tasks was tested using raters recruited from Amazon Mechanical Turk. The rationale for the study was to determine if such raters could provide reliable (aka generalizable) ratings from the perspective of generalizability theory. To promote reliability across the Alternative Uses and Consequence task prompts often used by researchers as measures of Divergent Thinking, two parallel scales were developed to facilitate feasibility and validity of ratings performed by laypeople. Generalizability and dependability studies were conducted separately for two scoring systems: the average-rating system and the snapshot system. Results showed that it is difficult to achieve adequate reliability using the snapshot system, while good reliability can be achieved on both task families using the average-rating system and a specific number of items and raters. Additionally, the construct validity of the average-rating system is generally good, with less validity for certain Consequences items. Recommendations for researchers wishing to adopt the new scales are discussed, along with broader issues of generalizability of subjective creativity ratings. © 2018 Hass, Rivera and Silvia

Dark Energy, Inflation and Extra Dimensions

We consider how accelerated expansion, whether due to inflation or dark energy, imposes strong constraints on fundamental theories obtained by compactification from higher dimensions. For theories that obey the null energy condition (NEC), we find that inflationary cosmology is impossible for a wide range of compactifications; and a dark energy phase consistent with observations is only possible if both Newton's gravitational constant and the dark energy equation-of-state vary with time. If the theory violates the NEC, inflation and dark energy are only possible if the NEC-violating elements are inhomogeneously distributed in thecompact dimensions and vary with time in precise synchrony with the matter and energy density in the non-compact dimensions. Although our proofs are derived assuming general relativity applies in both four and higher dimensions and certain forms of metrics, we argue that similar constraints must apply for more general compactifications.Comment: 26 pages, 1 figure. v2: reference added, typos correcte

Emissions Trading and the Convergence of the Australian Electricity and Transport Markets

Bottom up partial equilibrium modelling of the energy sector has tended to focus on the electricity sector given its typically large share of total emissions, the deregulation of that market in many countries and the relatively well understood technology options. In contrast, this paper employs a model of the energy sector to investigate the proportion electricity and transport may contribute given the relative cost of abatement in those sectors, for specified emission targets. A related issue is the potential convergence of the two sectors through greater uptake of electrically powered transport.Energy, Emissions trading, Electricity and transport, integrated modelling, Environmental Economics and Policy, Public Economics,

Molecular-Dynamics Simulation of a Glassy Polymer Melt: Incoherent Scattering Function

We present simulation results for a model polymer melt, consisting of short, nonentangled chains, in the supercooled state. The analysis focuses on the monomer dynamics, which is monitored by the incoherent intermediate scattering function. The scattering function is recorded over six decades in time and for many different wave-vectors. The lowest temperatures studied are slightly above the critical temperature of mode-coupling theory (MCT), which was determined from a quantitative analysis of the beta- and alpha-relaxations. We find evidence for the space-time factorization theorem in the beta-relaxation regime, and for the time-temperature superposition principle in the alpha-regime, if the temperature is not too close to the critical temperature. The wave-vector dependence of the nonergodicity parameter, of the critical amplitude, and the alpha-relaxation time are in qualitative agreement with calculations for hard spheres. For wave-vectors larger than the maximum of the structure factor the alpha-relaxation time already agrees fairly well with the asymptotic MCT-prediction. The behavior of the relaxation time at small wave-vectors can be rationalized by the validity of the Gaussian approximation and the value of the Kohlrausch stretching exponent.Comment: 23 pages of REVTeX, 13 PostScript figures, submitted to Phys. Rev.

Beneficial modulation of the gut microbiota

peer-reviewedThe human gut microbiota comprises approximately 100 trillion microbial cells and has a significant effect on many aspects of human physiology including metabolism, nutrient absorption and immune function. Disruption of this population has been implicated in many conditions and diseases, including examples such as obesity, inflammatory bowel disease and colorectal cancer that are highlighted in this review. A logical extension of these observations suggests that the manipulation of the gut microbiota can be employed to prevent or treat these conditions. Thus, here we highlight a variety of options, including the use of changes in diet (including the use of prebiotics), antimicrobial-based intervention, probiotics and faecal microbiota transplantation, and discuss their relative merits with respect to modulating the intestinal community in a beneficial way.C.J.W, C.M.G. and P.D.C are supported by a SFI PI award “Obesibiotics” (11/PI/1137

Spatial Equilibrium Analysis of the U.S. Hard Red Spring Wheat Industry under Alternative Transportation Rate Structures

Industrial Organization,

The determinants of direct air fares to Cleveland: how competitive?

Using a model developed to examine the determinants of air fares, the authors discuss the relationship between airline industry competitiveness and fare increases.Airlines ; Competition ; Cleveland (Ohio)