Reconsidering the Rational Public: Cognition, Heuristics, and Mass Opinion

There has been a marked change in the way political scientists think about the American citizenry. Beginning with the advent of survey research in the 1940s, students of public opinion took a dim view of citizens ’ political capabilities. Consistently finding a public profoundly lacking in political knowledge and sophistication, they became skeptical of the individual citizen’s ability to make intelligent political decisions or to participate effectively in the political process (see Kinder 1983 and Sniderman 1993 for comprehensive reviews). Over the past decade, leading scholars have offered grounds for a much more positive view of citizen competence. They do not dispute the finding of widespread political ignorance or claim that the citizen’s command of politics has recently improved. Rather, they offer two arguments to suggest that even an uninformed citizenry can participate in politics competently. One is that individuals use heuristics--mental shortcuts that require hardly any information--to make fairly reliable political judgments. By this means, Sniderman, Brody, and Tetlock (1991, pp. 19) write, “people can be knowledgeable in their reasoning about political choices without necessarily possessing a large body of knowledge about politics. ” The other argument is that public opinion is rational in the aggregate, even if individual opinion is prone to error (Page and Shapiro 1992; see also Converse 1990). Individual errors cancel out in the process of aggregation, and thus collective opinion conveys real and true information about the citizenry’s preferences. The two proposals struck a chord among political scientists. Sniderman, Brody, an

Early detection of marine non-indigenous species on Svalbard by DNA metabarcoding of sediment

Non-indigenous species (NIS) in the Arctic have an increased likelihood of arrival from ship traffic in the region, while the survival potential of the species becomes more likely in a warming environment. Monitoring is essential to detect the rate and magnitude of the establishment of NIS. In this study, a list of 123 potential marine NIS for Svalbard was drafted and the presence of marine NIS in soft sediment of Kongsfjorden in Svalbard was assessed using molecular metabarcoding techniques. For 37 species, including eight potential Arctic NIS, we generated new 18S and/or COI barcode sequences to improve the available online reference databases. In total, 299 species were identified in the sediment samples, including seven potential NIS. Three of these potential NIS have not been reported before in Svalbard: the harpacticoid copepod Euterpina acutifrons, and the ascidians Botrylloides violaceus and Molgula manhattensis. Another novel observation for Svalbard was the polychaete Chone mollis. Additional studies are needed to assess whether the NIS have been established on Svalbard and what their potential impact on the local system may be. Metabarcoding proved to be an effective monitoring tool to detect the presence of new species in Svalbard marine waters. We advise its use to set up a baseline record for the presence of NIS at points of entry, especially harbours. This approach is also valuable for biodiversity monitoring, in particular the detection of small organisms and life stages that are hard to identify using current visual techniques.</p