Mathematical Modeling of a Sociological and Hydrologic Decision System

The general goal of this study was to develop a functional model of the sociological and related hydrologic elements in flood control decision-making. Conceptual system models were developed for the hydrologic system and for the sociological system. The sociological variables were identified as they related to the steps in the process of the model. Following the conceptual decision process model the social elements of the model were calibrated from data obtained from field studies and mathematical equations were developed and tested. Finally simulations of the process were run. After adjustments were made the model was found to function. Several methodological factors were devised to make the model more realistic and operable. These were: 1) Distortion Factors, which are differences that exists between various actual situations and perception of these situations; 2)Importance Factors, which are measures of the relative degrees of importance of each of the major characteristics of a proposal such as economic, aesthetic, effectiveness, etc,; 3) Acceptance Functions, defined as a combination of the perceived value of a characteristic and the Importance Factors; 4) Expansion Effect, which provides for changes in behavior related to values that are in a latent state of unimportance to a state of high importance stimulating high level action; 5) Threshold Levels, that determine the point between no activity and public action. These concepts permit the model to adjust to changes in social behavior related to the social structure of the decision process. The system provides for the function of social values as they relate to the social structures and the hydrologic components

Management of the Hydrologic System in Areas Subject to Coal Mining Activities

Publicity given to the detrimental effects of mining activities on the environment has tended to overshadow somewhat the hydrologic opportunities and benfits that could be associated with these activities. For example, many areas disturbed by surface mining have proved to be excellent recharge areas for groundwater aquifers. The degree to which mine sites can be exploited to improve management of the hydrologic system depends on both the local geology and the mining techniques used. The report examines the effects of present mining activities on the associated hydrology system, and identifies specific mining procedures and management techniques which not only minimize negative hydrologic impacts of mining operations, but which also enhance the values of the hydrologic system in terms of existing and potential social uses. Thus, the results of the research contribute to the solution of present and future hydrologic problems (both quanitty and quality) associated with coal mining in the western U.S. Emphasis is placed on sites which are representative of both existing and future coal mining areas. The specific objectives of the study are to: 1. Evaluate the potential for using underground coal mines to: a. Tap previously inaccessible groundwater supplies. b. Reduce the salt load to the Colorado River by decreasing the contact of groundwater with salt-bearing geologic formations. c. Store water in abondoned mines. 2. Consider the potential effects of underground coal mines on water resources. 3. Evaluate the potential of using surface mined areas to collect surface runoffs and thus: a. Reduce the sediment loads to the Colorado River. b. Enhance water storage in the basin. Each of the preceding objectives is addressed and discussed by the report in terms of actual coal mines in central Utah. The study suggests not only ways of reducing negative hydrologic impacts of mining operations, but also operational and management mining techniques which will enhance the social use value of the hydrologic systems, and thus, in fact, create hydrologic opportunities

Interaction of the Host and Viral Genome and Their Influence on HIV Disease

The course of Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV) infection is a dynamic interplay in which both host and viral genetic variation, among other factors, influence disease susceptibility and rate of progression. HIV set-point viral load (spVL), a key indicator of HIV disease progression, has an estimated 30% of variance attributable to common heritable effects and roughly 70% attributable to environmental factors and/or additional non-genetic factors. Genome-wide genotyping and sequencing studies have allowed for large-scale association testing studying host and viral genetic variants associated with infection and disease progression. Host genomics of HIV infection has been studied predominantly in Caucasian populations consistently identifying human leukocyte antigen (HLA) genes and C-C motif chemokine receptor 5 as key factors of HIV susceptibility and progression. However, these studies don’t fully assess all classes of genetic variation (e.g., very rare polymorphisms, copy number variants etc.) and do not inform on non-European ancestry groups. Additionally, viral sequence variability has been demonstrated to influence disease progression independently of host genetic variation. Viral sequence variation can be attributed to the rapid evolution of the virus within the host due to the selective pressure of the host immune response. As the host immune system responds to the virus, e.g., through recognition of HIV antigens, the virus is able to mitigate this response by evolving HLA-specific escape mutations. Diversity of viral genotypes has also been correlated with moderate to strong effects on CD4+ T cell decline and some studies showing weak to no correlation with spVL. There is evidence to support these viral genetic factors being heritable between individuals and the evolution of these factors having important consequences in the genetic epidemiology of HIV infection on a population level. This review will discuss the host-pathogen interaction of HIV infection, explore the importance of host and viral genetics for a better understanding of pathogenesis and identify opportunities for additional genetic studies

Simulation of the Hydrologic-Economic Flow System in an Agricultural Area

Like the allocation of water resources among water users, the distribution of allocated water to the subusers requires an estimate of the economic costs and benefits from a number of distribution alternatives. The most satisfactory solution maximizes the benefit cost ratio. This study is based on the premise that equitable water distribution to agricultural subusers can be more easily accomplished through the use of a technique to predict the marginal value of agricultural water. A hydro-economic model is formulated to distribute the water supply to the crops and to determine the unit value of water for the given supply. By incrementing the supply, the marginal value of water for a given cropping pattern is determined. Water is in short supply if the potential evapotranspiration of all the crops can not be satisfied. The link between the economic and hydrologic system is the production function which is the relationship between the actual evapotranspiration and the yield of the crop. Other variables affecting crop production are assumed to be relatively constant. The simulation model is applied to a prototype system to demonstrate the applicability of the model to management and planning problems. The model provides a means of determining the marginal value of water in water short years where potential evapotranspiration of all crops can not be met

Modeling the Total Hydrologic-Sociologic Flow System of Urban Areas - Phase II

Introduction and Overview: This is an interim report on Phase II of the three phase study. The objectives covered in this phase were: 1. To gather social and hydrologic data needed to calibrate and test the model. 2. The expand the physical model to include the rural part of the watersheds. 3. To test and improve techniques of the logical linking of the hydrologic and sociologic systems. 4. To begin adapting the model to the computer. During the second phase for the hydrologic component of the model major emphasis was placed on the expansion of the hydrologic area and the collection and analysis of additional physical data. The major emphasis for the sociologic part of the model was on the gathering of social data by the re-designing and testing of an improved research instrument (schedule or questionaire_ and administration of this schedule to a random sample of the general population in the urbanized area. The urbanized area is related to the physical hydrologic area of the study. The data were collected to improve the basic methodology and conceptualizations for linking the hydrologic and sociologic systems together in one model. Division of this report: Section II of this interim report deals with development of the physical component of they hydrologic-sociologic model. It describes the expansion of the hydrologic to include the rural parts of the watershed and tests for validation of they physical submodel. Section III review the ype of work done in Phase II of the sociological work. This consisted of: (1) reviewing the accomplishments and limitations of the first phase; (2) redesigning the questionaire to correct deficiencies in the one used in the first study, to measure additional variables throught to perhaps be relevant to the problem, and where desireable, to adapt them to the general population of the area rather than to specialized populations; (3) pretesting of component parts of the revised schedule; (4) drawing of a random sample from the population; (5) interviewing of the sample; (6) coding and processing of data for analysis; and (7) preliminary analysis of the results of the data. Progress made in the mathematical formulations of social elements is vital. The refinement of meaurement of the population data for use in the model is of central importance since the effectiveness of the testing, verification, and consequent improvement of the model depends on the accuracy of the measurement of the variables involved. Section IV shows some details on the work performed in interrelating the sociologic and hydrologic components of the model, and on one possible mathematical formulation which shows some of the interrelationships between these components. It is hoped that the formulation achieved will be useful to planners, not only in increased understanding of the total system, but also in the analysis of the merits of flood-control proposals relative to the social characteristics of particular areas. Section V discusses the purposes of the work in Phase II and the objectives expected to be met during the coming phase

A Preliminary Model of the Hydrologic-Sociologic Flow System of an Urban Area

This report describes the first phase of a larger study which is directed toward the development of a general technique for analyzing and solving urban metropolitan hydrologic problems through a joint consideration of both the physical and social dimensions. This report is limited to the preliminary work of identification of social variables, the first steps in assigning mathematical values to them, and developing a mathematical format for these variables. In addition, the physical-hydrologic system is identified for purposes of clarifying the elements in that system. The ultimate objective of the entire study is directed toward discovering a theoretical and generally applicable mathematical model of both the physical and social dimensions involved in metropolitan flooding problems

Colorado River Basin Modeling Studies: Proceedings of a Seminar Held at Utah State University Logan , Utah July 16-18, 1975

Preface: Computer modeling is an important and valuable tool for water resources planning and management. In recent years many different modeling approaches and techniques have been developed. Some have been applied in the Colorado River Basin. A brief and incomplete search showed over fifty reports on modeling in the Colorado River Basin alone. The main motivation for this Seminar was the indication that (1) much duplication of effort is occuring among Colorado River modeling studies due to lack of information and (2) much of the knowledge now available on modeling is not being effectively applied to real problems. The overall goals and broach objectives of this conference were to provide a forum whereby management policies, existing computer modeling techniques, methodologies, and studies applied to the planning, design, construction, operation, management, and development of the water and land resources in the Colorado River Basin might be comprehensively reviewed, discussed, and analyzed, and projections of future needs and trends developed. Specifically, the Seminar appempted to: *Provide a forum for policy and decision-makers and public officials to review, evaluate, discuss, and project the needs and applicability of modeling techniques in river basin planning and management. *Acquaint the participants with the present status and trends in computer models as they are applicable to water resource systems. *Bring a knowledge of the state-of-the-art in computer modeling studies to institutions, agencies, and individuals. *Help participants avoid or minimize duplication of efforts in future work related to the theme of the seminar. *Emphasize the importance of comprehensive systmes analyses, recognizing that subanalysis of a comprehensize system through uncoordinated submodels generally is not sufficient

SLAMBench 3.0:Systematic Automated Reproducible Evaluation of SLAM Systems for Robot Vision Challenges and Scene Understanding

As the SLAM research area matures and the number of SLAM systems available increases, the need for frameworks that can objectively evaluate them against prior work grows. This new version of SLAMBench moves beyond traditional visual SLAM, and provides new support for scene understanding and non-rigid environments (dynamic SLAM). More concretely for dynamic SLAM, SLAMBench 3.0 includes the first publicly available implementation of DynamicFusion, along with an evaluation infrastructure. In addition, we include two SLAM systems (one dense, one sparse) augmented with convolutional neural networks for scene understanding, together with datasets and appropriate metrics. Through a series of use-cases, we demonstrate the newly incorporated algorithms, visulation aids and metrics (6 new metrics, 4 new datasets and 5 new algorithms)

A Retrospective Real-World Study of the Effectiveness and Tolerability of Tildrakizumab in UK Adults with Moderate-to-Severe Chronic Plaque Psoriasis

INTRODUCTION: As with most medicines historically, clinicians prescribing tildrakizumab have relied on information derived from registration studies undertaken in a prospective controlled clinical trial setting. More recently, clinicians, policymakers, and commissioners increasingly rely on real-world data to inform both policy and practice. METHODS: A retrospective real-world data study was undertaken at four specialist dermatology departments in the United Kingdom. All adult patients treated with tildrakizumab for moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis were included, with data being collected for 122 patients. RESULTS: Psoriatic patients on tildrakizumab tended to be overweight (median body mass index of 32 (range 19–59) (n = 61); 26/68 (38%)  120 kg). The study population had high levels of comorbidities (83/116, 72%), multiple special sites (39/117, 33%), and histories of biological treatments (81/100, 81%). Most patients (61/80, 76%) initiated on tildrakizumab were switched from another biological treatment. Tildrakizumab was effective, with 91/122 (75%) patients remaining on treatment for the duration of the study—a median of 12 months per patient (range 1–29 months)—and achieving a change in median Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI) from 12 to 0.35 and in Dermatology Life Quality Index (DLQI) from 20 to 0. The response rate was 57/66 (86%) when tildrakizumab was used as the first- or second-line biologic compared to 19/31 (61%) when used as the third- to seventh-line. Thirty-three (78.6%) patients over 90 kg of weight received the 200-mg dose of tildrakizumab. All but one (n = 8) patient with body weight over 120 kg maintained response over time. There was one treatment discontinuation; a patient who had a local sensitivity reaction. CONCLUSIONS: In UK clinical practice, tildrakizumab was well tolerated and effective at doses of 100 mg or 200 mg in a range of patient phenotypes

Two years of satellite-based carbon dioxide emission quantification at the world's largest coal-fired power plants

Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from combustion sources are uncertain in many places across the globe. Satellites have the ability to detect and quantify emissions from large CO2 point sources, including coal-fired power plants. In this study, we routinely made observations with the PRecursore IperSpettrale della Missione Applicativa (PRISMA) satellite imaging spectrometer and the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-3 (OCO-3) instrument aboard the International Space Station at over 30 coal-fired power plants between 2021 and 2022. CO2 plumes were detected in 50 % of the acquired PRISMA scenes, which is consistent with the combined influence of viewing parameters on detection (solar illumination and surface reflectance) and unknown factors (e.g., daily operational status). We compare satellite-derived emission rates to in situ stack emission observations and find average agreement to within 27 % for PRISMA and 30 % for OCO-3, although more observations are needed to robustly characterize the error. We highlight two examples of fusing PRISMA with OCO-2 and OCO-3 observations in South Africa and India. For India, we acquired PRISMA and OCO-3 observations on the same day and used the high-spatial-resolution capability of PRISMA (30 m spatial/pixel resolution) to partition relative contributions of two distinct emitting power plants to the net emission. Although an encouraging start, 2 years of observations from these satellites did not produce sufficient observations to estimate annual average emission rates within low (&lt;15 %) uncertainties. However, as the constellation of CO2-observing satellites is poised to significantly improve in the coming decade, this study offers an approach to leverage multiple observation platforms to better quantify and characterize uncertainty for large anthropogenic emission sources.</p