International Interest Rate Differentials: The Interaction with Fiscal and Monetary Variables, and the Business Cycle

Adapting Den Haan's (1996) methodology based on VARs, this paper documents stylized facts about various deviations from international no arbitrage conditions between Canada and the United States. The calculated statistics provide important information about the dynamics of the economic variables that is lost when the focus is solely on unconditional correlation coefficients. In particular, we find that a higher public debt path and slower economic growth in Canada are associated with higher real interest rates in that country relative to that of the US. These results may suggest that international interest rate differentials reflect, at least in part, a risk premium. À l'aide d'une méthodologie adaptée de Den Haan (1996) basée sur les VAR, cette étude documente des régularités empiriques relativement à diverses déviations par rapport aux conditions internationales de non-arbitrage entre le Canada et les États-Unis. Les statistiques calculées fournissent de l'information pertinente, à propos de la dynamique entre les variables économiques, qui auraient été masquée en examinant uniquement des coefficients de corrélations non conditionnelles. En particulier, nous trouvons qu'un taux d'endettement public plus élevé et une croissance économique plus faible sont associés avec des taux d'intérêt réels plus élevés relativement aux taux américains. Ces résultats peuvent suggérer que les différentiels de taux d'intérêt reflètent, du moins en partie, une prime de risque.

ToTEM: The Bank of Canada's New Projection and Policy-Analysis Model

The Terms-of-Trade Economic Model, or ToTEM, replaced the Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) in December 2005 as the Bank's principal projection and policy-analysis model for the Canadian economy. Benefiting from advances in economic modelling and computer power, ToTEM builds on the strengths of QPM, allowing for optimizing behaviour on the part of firms and households, both in and out of steady state, in a multi-product environment. The authors explain the motivation behind the development of ToTEM, provide an overview of the model and its calibration, and present several simulations to illustrate its key properties, concluding with some indications of how the model is expected to evolve going forward.

Combining GPS, GIS, and accelerometry to explore the physical activity and environment relationship in children and young people – a review

The environment has long been associated with physical activity engagement, and recent developments in technology have resulted in the ability to objectively quantify activity behaviours and activity context. This paper reviews studies that have combined Global Positioning Systems (GPS), Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and accelerometry to investigate the PA-environment relationship in children and young people (5–18 years old). Literature searches of the following bibliographic databases were undertaken: Sportdiscus, Medline, Embase, CINAHL, Psychinfo and Applied Social Sciences Index and Abstracts (ASSIA). Fourteen studies met the inclusion criteria, and covered topics including greenspace use, general land use, active travel, and the built environment. Studies were largely cross-sectional and took place across developed countries (UK, USA, Canada, New Zealand, and Australia). Findings suggest that roads and streets, school grounds, and the home location are important locations for total PA, and moderate to vigorous PA (MVPA). The relationship between greenspace was positive, however, multiple definitions and outcome measures add complexity to the results. MVPA was more likely in those exposed to higher levels of greenspace compared to sedentary individuals. Total MVPA time in greenspace is low, but when framed as a proportion of the total can be quite high. Domestic gardens may be an important area for higher intensity activity.<p></p> Researchers are encouraged to show transparency in their methods. As a relatively new area of research, with ever-evolving technology, future work is best placed in developing novel, but robust, methods to investigate the PA and environment relationship. Further descriptive work is encouraged to build on a small but increasing knowledge base; however, longitudinal studies incorporating seasonal/weather variation would also be extremely beneficial to elicit some of the nuances associated with land use. A greater understanding of geographic variation (i.e. within and between countries), as well as urban/suburban and rural dwelling is welcomed, and future work should also include the investigation of psycho-social health as an outcome, as well as differences in socio-economic status, sex and adiposity

Impact of pig slurry amendments on phosphorus, suspended sediment and metal losses in laboratory runoff boxes under simulated rainfall

peer-reviewedLosses of phosphorus (P) when pig slurry applications to land are followed by a rainfall event or losses from soils with high P contents can contribute to eutrophication of receiving waters. The addition of amendments to pig slurry spread on high P Index soils may reduce P and suspended sediment (SS) losses. This hypothesis was tested at laboratory-scale using runoff boxes under simulated rainfall conditions. Intact grassed soil samples, 100 cm-long, 22.5 cm-wide and 5 cm-deep, were placed in runoff boxes and pig slurry or amended pig slurry was applied to the soil surface. The amendments examined were: (1) commercial grade liquid alum (8% Al2O3) applied at a rate of 0.88:1 [Al:total phosphorus (TP)] (2) commercial-grade liquid ferric chloride (38% FeCl3) applied at a rate of 0.89:1 [Fe:TP] and (3) commercial-grade liquid poly-aluminium chloride (PAC) (10% Al2O3) applied at a rate of 0.72:1 [Al:TP]. The grassed soil was then subjected to three rainfall events (10.3 ± 0.15 mm h−1) at time intervals of 48, 72, and 96 h following slurry application. Each sod received rainfall on 3 occasions. Results across three rainfall events showed that for the control treatment, the average flow weighted mean concentration (FWMC) of TP was 0.61 mg L−1, of which 31% was particulate phosphorus (PP), and the average FWMC of SS was 38.1 mg L−1. For the slurry treatment, there was an average FWMC of 2.2 mg TP L−1, 47% of which was PP, and the average FWMC of SS was 71.5 mg L−1. Ranked in order of effectiveness from best to worst, PAC reduced the average FWMC of TP to 0.64 mg L−1 (42% PP), FeCl3 reduced TP to 0.91 mg L−1 (52% PP) and alum reduced TP to 1.08 mg L−1 (56% PP). The amendments were in the same order when ranked for effectiveness at reducing SS: PAC (74%), FeCl3 (66%) and alum (39%). Total phosphorus levels in runoff plots receiving amended slurry remained above those from soil only, indicating that, although incidental losses could be mitigated by chemical amendment, chronic losses from the high P index soil in the current study could not be reduced.The first author gratefully acknowledges the award of the EMBARK scholarship from IRCSET to support this study

Carbon and nitrogen dynamics: Greenhouse gases in groundwater beneath a constructed wetland treating municipal wastewater

Conference oral presentationConstructed wetlands (CW) act as nitrogen (N) sinks and reactors facilitating a number of physical, chemical and biological processes. The N removal efficiency of through-flowing water in such systems when used to treat municipal wastewater is variable. Their overall removal efficiencies do not specifically explain which N species have been removed by physical attenuation, and by biological assimilation or transformation to other forms. A wider understanding of how N removal occurs would help elucidate how losses of N and associated gases from CW impact on water and air quality. The objective of this study is to investigate the C and N cycling processes in the porewater of soils immediately adjacent, up-gradient and down- gradient to helophyte —vegetated CW cells