Regional Trade and Food Price Stablisation in South Asia: Policy Responses to the 2007-08 World Price Shocks

World price shocks and disruptions in international cereal trade in 2007 and 2008 caused considerable anxiety and hardship for food importing countries throughout the world. In South Asia, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh and India were all affected by these movements in international prices, though the effects on domestic prices in each case was mitigated or exacerbated by each country’s own trade policies, as well as the trade policies of its neighbours. This paper reviews domestic and international trade policies in South Asia in recent years and argues that liberalised international trade still provides the best mechanism for stabilising prices and food supplies in most years. Nonetheless, appropriate contingency policies still are needed for years in which international prices are extraordinarily high. More explicit commitments to cereal trade liberalisation within South Asia would also promote region-wide food security and help avoid a repetition of export supply disruptions by India that contributed to sharp rises in food prices in Bangladesh, and similar restrictions by Pakistan that contributed to food price increases in Afghanistan.Food Security, Price Stabilisation, Trade Policy, Food Stocks, South Asia

Agglomeration, migration, and regional growth: A CGE analysis for Uganda

"Uganda has experienced rapid economic growth and poverty reduction over the past decade but has failed to significantly improve incomes in its northern regions where prolonged conflict has hindered growth. We consider three strategies to close this regional divide: (1) develop a north-south corridor to encourage regional trade, (2) accelerate growth in the southern capital city and encourage north-south migration, and (3) improve agricultural productivity in rural areas. We examine these strategies using a regionalized computable general equilibrium model, accounting for internal migration and productivity gains from urban agglomeration effects. Simulation results indicate that a north-south corridor benefits northern households, but its benefits are limited by the small size of northern urban centers and the low productivity of northern producers. Investing in the capital city accelerates economic growth but has little effect on other regions' welfare because of the city's weak growth linkages with other regions and small migration effects. Improving agricultural productivity, however, though less effective at stimulating national economic growth, generates broad-based welfare improvements in both rural and urban areas. We therefore conclude that without significant gains in agricultural productivity in the next decade, out-migration and urban-led growth centered in Kampala will be insufficient to significantly reduce poverty in northern Uganda. " from authors' abstracteconomic growth, Poverty, Agricultural development, Spatial economics, Development strategies,

Wheat Markets and Price Stabilisation in Pakistan: An Analysis of Policy Options

This article provides a quantitative analysis of the effects of Pakistan government domestic wheat procurement, sales, and trade policies on wheat supply, demand, prices, and overall inflation. Analysis of price multipliers indicates that increases in wheat procurement prices (one means of promoting domestic procurement) have relatively small effects on overall price levels. Partial equilibrium analysis of wheat markets suggests that fluctuations in production, rather than market manipulation, are plausible explanations for price increases in recent years. Comparisons of domestic and international prices suggest that promoting private sector imports is one alternative for increasing supply and stabilising market prices, particularly in years of production shortfalls. Overall, this paper concludes that market forces play a dominant role in price determination in Pakistan, and that policies that promote the private sector wheat trade can both increase price stability and reduce fiscal costs.Wheat; Agricultural prices; Pakistan

Wheat Markets and Price Stabilisation in Pakistan: An Analysis of Policy Options

This article provides a quantitative analysis of the effects of Pakistan government domestic wheat procurement, sales, and trade policies on wheat supply, demand, prices, and overall inflation. Analysis of price multipliers indicates that increases in wheat procurement prices (one means of promoting domestic procurement) have relatively small effects on overall price levels. Partial equilibrium analysis of wheat markets suggests that fluctuations in production, rather than market manipulation, are plausible explanations for price increases in recent years. Comparisons of domestic and international prices suggest that promoting private sector imports is one alternative for increasing supply and stabilising market prices, particularly in years of production shortfalls. Overall, this paper concludes that market forces play a dominant role in price determination in Pakistan, and that policies that promote the private sector wheat trade can both increase price stability and reduce fiscal costsWheat, Agricultural prices, Pakistan

Wheat Markets and Price Stabilisation in Pakistan: An Analysis of Policy Options

This article provides a quantitative analysis of the effects of Pakistan government domestic wheat procurement, sales, and trade policies on wheat supply, demand, prices, and overall inflation. Analysis of price multipliers indicates that increases in wheat procurement prices (one means of promoting domestic procurement) have relatively small effects on the overall consumer price index. Partial equilibrium analysis of wheat markets suggests that fluctuations in production, rather than market manipulation, are plausible explanations for price increases in recent years. Comparisons of domestic and international prices suggest that promoting private sector imports is one alternative for increasing supply and stabilising market prices, particularly in years of production shortfalls. Overall, this paper concludes that market forces play a dominant role in price determination in Pakistan, and that policies that promote the private sector wheat trade can both increase price stability and reduce fiscal costs.Food Policy, Food Price Stabilisation, Agricultural Policy, Food Price Inflation

Social Accounting Matrix for Pakistan, 2001-02: Methodology and Results

This paper describes the structure and construction of a social accounting matrix (SAM) for Pakistan for 2001-02. A SAM is an internally consistent extended set of national accounts that disaggregates value-added in each production activity into payments to various factors (e.g., land, labour, capital), and disaggregates household incomes and expenditures according to various household types. Because this Pakistan SAM is designed for analysis of the links between growth and rural poverty, agricultural activities, agricultural factors of production, and rural household accounts are more disaggregated than are those for urban activities and households. Rural household groups in the SAM are split according to three regions (Punjab, Sindh, and Other Pakistan) to capture the large differences in the structure of agricultural production and incomes across Pakistan. On average, household incomes in the SAM are 2.1 times greater than household expenditures in the HIES Survey, reflecting the apparent substantial under-reporting of expenditures (particularly on services)and informal sector incomes in the HIES and other household surveys. Agricultural factor incomes as calculated in the SAM account for only 23 percent of total factor incomes in Pakistan, but 60 percent of total factor incomes for agricultural households. 91 percent of agricultural incomes derive from land, water, own-farm labour, or livestock; earnings of hired labour and (nonlivestock)agricultural capital account for only 9 percent of agricultural incomes. Incomes of large- and medium-farm rural households, calculated using land area cultivated, data from the Agricultural Census, and other data, are significantly higher than indicated in household surveys.National accounts; Social accounting matrix

Comparative advantage in Bangladesh crop production

"This study uses data from 1996/97 through 1998/99 to examine the relative efficiency of production of crops in Bangladesh and their comparative advantage in international trade as measured by net economic profitability (the profitability using economic, rather than financial costs and prices), and the domestic resource cost ratio, (the amount of value of non-tradable domestic resources used in production divided by the value of tradable products). The economic profitability analysis demonstrates that Bangladesh has a comparative advantage in domestic production of rice for import substitution. However, at the export parity price, economic profitability of rice is generally less than economic profitability of many non-rice crops, implying that Bangladesh has more profitable options other than production for rice export. Several non-cereal crops, including vegetables, potatoes and onions have financial and economic returns that are as high as or higher than those of High Yielding Variety (HYV) rice. The relatively minor role in cropping systems of these crops despite their higher returns, can largely be attributed to high price risks associated with marketing, suggesting the need for further development of agro-processing industries, rural infrastructure, and marketing networks." Authors' Abstract

Rice price stabilization in Bangladesh

To meet its overall objective of ensuring food security for all households, the Government of Bangladesh undertakes several activities: it intervenes in markets to stabilize prices, targets food distribution to poor households and provides emergency relief after natural disasters. This paper provides measures of the variability of domestic and international rice prices, and examines the mix of government intervention and private sector participation in rice markets. The analysis shows that the relatively high degree of price stability achieved in the 1990s was due in large part to private sector imports that stabilized markets following major production shortfalls. Domestic rice procurement contributed relatively little to raising domestic producer prices at harvest time, involved only a small percentage of farmers, and incurred excessive costs following successful harvests because of procurement prices set far in excess of market prices.Price regulation ,Food security South Asia ,Government policy ,Markets Prices ,Rice Bangladesh ,

Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Pakistan

Distorted incentives, agricultural and trade policy reforms, national agricultural development, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, F13, F14, Q17, Q18,

Rice Price Stabilization in Madagascar: Price and Welfare Implications of Variable Tariffs

Given the large share of major staples in the budgets of the poor, governments in many developing countries intervene in food markets to limit variation in the prices of staple foods. This paper examines the recent experience of Madagascar in stabilizing prices through international trade and the implications of adjustments in tariff rates. Using a partial equilibrium model, we quantify the overall costs and benefits of a change in import duties for various household groups, and compare this intervention to a policy of targeted food transfers or security stocks.Food Policy, Price Stabilization, Trade, sub-Saharan Africa, Crop Production/Industries, International Relations/Trade, Q11, Q17,