The Chinese renminbi: what’s real, what’s not

China's recent devaluation and liberalization of its exchange-rate policies will, at best, have only a temporary impact on its trade competitiveness with the United States. The type of exchange-rate regime that a country adopts matters little for its long-term international competitiveness. In addition, the recent focus on China's exchange rate diverts attention from the real problem: China’s command economy.Foreign exchange rates - China

Nondeliverable forwards: can we tell where the renminbi is headed?

Since the early 1990s, international banks have been offering nondeliverable forward (NDF) contracts to clients who need to hedge exposures in currencies of emerging-market economies. Many also use the exchange rate on these contracts as a best guess of where the emerging-market currency is headed. The exchange rates on NDFs, however, likely embody a substantial risk premium that interferes with forecasting accuracy.Foreign exchange rates - China

Walking on a fence: Brazil’s public-sector debt

Brazil is walking on a fence between sustainable and unsustainable public-debt dynamics. How it treads could affect not only its own economic prosperity but that of its neighbors, emerging markets in general, and U.S. financial institutions in particular. Relatively small improvements in Brazilian economic conditions and a continuation of that country’s recent fiscal improvements could push Brazil in the right direction, particularly if the dollar continues to depreciate.Debts, Public - Brazil ; Economic conditions - Brazil

Option prices, exchange market intervention, and the higher moment expectations channel: a user’s guide

A vast literature on the effects of sterilized intervention by the monetary authorities in the foreign exchange markets concludes that intervention systematically moves the spot exchange rate only if it is publicly announced, coordinated across countries, and consistent with the underlying stance of fiscal and monetary policy. Over the past fifteen years, researchers have also attempted to determine if intervention has any effects on the dispersion and directionality of market views concerning the future exchange rate. These studies usually focus on the variance around the expected future exchange rate—the second moment. In this paper we demonstrate how to use over-the-counter option prices to recover the risk-neutral probability density function (PDF) for the future exchange rate. Using the yen/dollar exchange rate as an example, we calculate measures of dispersion and directionality, such as variance and skewness, from estimated PDFs to test whether intervention by the Japanese Ministry of Finance had any impact on the higher moments of the exchange rate. We find little or no systematic effect, consistent with the findings of the literature on the spot rate as Japanese intervention during the period 1996-2004 was not publicly announced, rarely coordinated across countries and, in hindsight, probably inconsistent with the underlying stance of monetary policy.Options (Finance) ; Foreign exchange administration

Monitoring and analysing attendance in first year university mathematics tutorials

As part of an innovative tutorial structure introduced to a first year university mathematics subject, an attendance monitoring system was implemented. The system collected data that was used to investigate the relationship between student attendance and assessment performance which is reported here. The implementation of this system also assisted in the increase of student participation and engagement

FOMC communications and the predictability of near-term policy decisions

In February 1994, the FOMC began a new era in transparency, gradually building a communications apparatus that conveys information about the Committee’s decisions and expectations. Has the new apparatus improved the public’s ability to predict FOMC interest rate decisions? New research based on the prices of fed funds futures shows that over the past decade, it has, especially over horizons of two to three months.Federal Open Market Committee ; Federal funds rate

Drug use amongst 12- and 13-year-olds attending emotional and behavioural difficulty units in Belfast.

This article reports on the findings from a survey of 12- and 13-year-old young people with statements of special educational needs who are attending emotional and behavioural difficulty units in Belfast. The existing literature in the area of special education suggests that a gap in contemporary empirical evidence for drug use behaviours of adolescents attending EBD units and other special educational facilities exists at present. In attempting to redress this knowledge gap, the findings from the present study support the opinions of commentators in the field that young people attending EBD units are at a high risk of illicit drug use in comparison with their contemporaries in mainstream school