A study in the cognition of individuals’ identity: Solving the problem of singular cognition in object and agent tracking

This article compares the ability to track individuals lacking mental states with the ability to track intentional agents. It explains why reference to individuals raises the problem of explaining how cognitive agents track unique individuals and in what sense reference is based on procedures of perceptual-motor and epistemic tracking. We suggest applying the notion of singular-files from theories in perception and semantics to the problem of tracking intentional agents. In order to elucidate the nature of agent-files, three views of the relation between object- and agent-tracking are distinguished: the Independence, Deflationary and Organism-Dependence Views. The correct view is argued to be the latter, which states that perceptual and epistemic tracking of a unique human organism requires tracking both its spatio-temporal object-properties and its agent-properties

Effects of climate change on the dispersion of white grub damages in the Austrian grassland

Recent changes in occurrence of agricultural pests in Austria might already reflect climate change phenomena. In this study, an inventory of white grub (Melolontha melolontha, Amphimallon solstitiale and Phyllopertha horticola) damages in Austrian grassland including organic cultivation was performed by questioning plant protection consultants of 74 Agricultural County Chambers. Altogether, a cumulated 14.800 hectares of white grub damages were recorded. From 2000 onwards, a steady increase of white grub damages occurred with a climax in the year of heat and drought 2003. The infested fields extended along the alpine main ridge from Vorarlberg up to the alpine foreland. Additionally, southern slopes of the Danube valley in Upper and Lower Austria were affected. Very likely, the damages were mainly due to the garden chafer P. horticola. From 2004 to 2006, the extent of damages decreased again all over Austria. By studying meteorological data, it became obvious that the damaged areas were mainly situated in regions with a strong precipitation deficit. On-farm investigations performed in 2007 strengthened the hypothesis that drought and elevated soil temperatures might be the decisive factors for a strong development of grub populations and subsequent feeding damages. Additionally, drought can increase the effects of grub damage by delaying the regeneration of the damaged sward. A strongly damaged sward on slopes can be dangerous for the farmers e.g. by slipping machines

Untersuchungen zur Niederschlagsabhängigkeit der Verbreitung des Ampferblattkäfers (Gastrophysa viridula)

The broad-leaved dock (Rumex obtusifolius) is a widely distributed weed of cultivated grasslands. Since the dock leaf beetle (Gastrophysa viridula) can defoliate docks extensively, if occurring in sufficient high densities, it is considered to be a potential part of a biocontrol strategy against R. obtusifolius. Our study aimed at investigating the influence of precipitation on the distribution of G. viridula. For that, 635 questionnaires were sent out to organic farmers and surveys were conducted on 39 farms in Lower Austria. The results showed G. viridula preferring regions with sufficient precipitation. These observations confirmed laboratory results reported in literature and should be considered in a concept for the enhancement of dock beetle populations as part of an organic dock regulation strategy

Market Power, Survival and Accuracy of Predictions in Financial Markets*

In a standard General Equilibrium framework, we consider an agent strategically using her large volum of trade to influence asset prices to increase her consumption. We show that , as in Sandroni (2000) for the competitive case, if markets are dynamically complete and some general conditions on market preferences are met then this agent' long-run consumption will vanish if she makes less accurate predictions than the market, and will maintain her market power otherwise. We thus agrue that the Market Selection Hypothesis extends to this situation of market power, in contract to Alchain (1950) and Friedman (1953) who claimed that this selection was solely driven by the competitivness of markets

The Economics of upgrading to innovative treatment technologies in the fight against HIV/AIDS

Abstract. We argue that current funding campaigns to fight AIDS in developing countries fail to recognize significant losses associated with the introduction of innovative treatment technologies. For instance, the future albeit uncertain appearance and widespread use of a therapeutic vaccine will trigger significant and unrecoverable losses in current drugs treatment investments. Our objective is then two-fold. We first document losses associated with the transition to better treatment technologies and we show that failure to hedge against such losses leads to sub-optimal policies. Our second objective is to provide policy recommendations to alleviate this problem. We show how to transform some cutting-hedge financial products to generate full insurance coverage against such losses, and in some cases how to achieve full risk-sharing with agencies developing innovative treatments. We recommend that every funding campaign in current AIDS treatments be accompanied with the provision of such insurance against the cost of switching to future albeit uncertain innovative treatments

Sharing Power? Prospects for a U.S. Concert-Balance Strategy

View the Executive SummaryThe subject of U.S. grand strategy has been getting increasing attention from the policy and academic communities. However, too often the debate suffers from being too reductionist, limiting America’s choices to worldwide hegemony or narrow isolation. There is a wide spectrum of choices before Washington that lie “somewhere in the middle.” Frequently, not enough thought is given to how such alternative strategies should be designed and implemented. The future cannot be known, and earlier predictions of American decline have proven to be premature. However, there is a shift in wealth and power to the extent that America may not be able to hold on to its position as an unrivalled unipolar superpower. Therefore, it is worth thinking about how the United States could shape and adjust to the changing landscape around it. What is more, there are a number of interlocking factors that mean such a shift would make sense: transnational problems needing collaborative efforts, the military advantages of defenders, the reluctance of states to engage in unbridled competition, and “hegemony fatigue” among the American people. Alternative strategies that are smaller than global hegemony, but bigger than narrow isolationism, would be defined by the logic of “concerts” and “balancing,” in other words, some mixture of collaboration and competition. Can the United States adjust to a Concert-Balance grand strategy that made space for other rising powers without sacrificing too much of its forward military presence, without unleashing too much regional instability, and without losing the domestic political will? It is not certain that a cumulative shift to a new grand strategy would necessarily succeed, since other powers might turn down the chance to cooperate. But with soaring budget deficits and national debt, increasing burdens on social security, and possible agonizing choices in the future between guns and butter, it is surely worth a try.https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/1530/thumbnail.jp

Psychological Aspects of Market Crashes

This paper analyzes the sensitivity of market crashes to investors' psychology in a standard general equilibrium framework. Contrary to the traditional view that market crashes are driven by large drops in aggregate endowments. We argue from a theoretical standpoint that individual anticipations of such drops are necessary condition for crashes to occur and that the magnitude of such crashes are positively correlated with the level of individual anticipations of drops

Should States or Cities Regulate Fracking: Colorado the Latest State to Confront the Issue

The Kay Bailey Hutchison Center for Energy, Law, and Busines

Regulatory Practices and the Impossibility to Extract Truthful Risk Information

We consider a regulator providing deposit insurance to a bank with private informataion about its investment portfolio. Following current regulatory practices, we assume that the regulator does not commit to audit and sanction after any risk report from the bank. We show that, in absence of commitment, the socially optimal contract leads a high-risk bank to misreport its risk with positive probability in most cases. Wer also isolate cases when truthful risk report is optimal. We this extablish that extraction of truthful risk information is not socially optimal in most cases given current regulatioy practices

A market microstructure explanation of IPOs underpricing

In a typical IPO game with first-price auctions, we argue that risk-averse investors always underbid in equilibrium because of sucbjective interpreetations of the firm' communications about its actual value and resulting risk aversion about the likelihood of facing investors with higher valuations. We show that the noisier the investors' inferences of the firm' value(in the sense of first-order stochastic dominance) the higher the underbidding level. Our finding is independent of winner's curse effects and possible irrational, and allows for a testable theory