FORWARD MARKETING BEHAVIOR OF SOYBEAN PRODUCERS

Indiana, Mississippi, and Nebraska producers' forward pricing behavior was analyzed with Tobit models. Percent debt, percent soybean acres, risk aversion, market consultants, comfort level with futures and options, lenders' opinions, written marketing plans, crop insurance, and geographic location were significant in explaining the percentage of expected soybean production forward priced.Demand and Price Analysis, Marketing,

Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE) Program or Traditional Government Payment Programs: What Factors Matter?

Rankings of different risk management portfolios including Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE), traditional government payment programs, crop insurance and hedging in futures; and optimal choices of insurance coverage levels and hedge ratios are evaluated for a representative central Indiana corn farm, using Monte Carlo simulation and optimization of expected utilities. The changes of preference between ACRE and traditional government programs under comprehensive scenarios of price and yield risks are studied. Also, Interactions between ACRE and other risk management instruments are examined, and government costs and risk management efficiencies between ACRE and traditional government programs are compared. The results show a strong preference of ACRE for the representative central Indiana corn farm in 2009, due to high ACRE guarantee price and expected drop in corn price from 2008 level. Even if the farm faces weak dependence between farm and aggregate yield, the risk could not offset the addition value ACRE could provide for this year. Also, it is found that there are synergistic effects between ACRE and two individual crop insurance plans but antagonistic effects between ACRE and group insurance plans. ACRE is more efficient than traditional government programs in terms of expected program costs.ACRE, Farm Bill, crop insurance, willingness to pay, government expenditure, government programs, Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Risk and Uncertainty,

Crop Revenue and Yield Insurance Demand: A Subjective Probability Approach

A multinomial logit is utilized to model the choice of whether to purchase yield or revenue insurance using subjectively elicited survey data. Our results indicate that the demand for crop insurance is inelastic (-0.40), consistent with most earlier yield elasticity estimates, but the elasticity for choices between yield and revenue insurance is found to be relatively more elastic (-0.88).crop insurance, elasticities, multinomial logit model, revenue demand, subjective elicitation, survey, Agribusiness, Crop Production/Industries, Demand and Price Analysis, Q18,

RISK PERCEPTIONS AND MANAGEMENT RESPONSES: PRODUCER-GENERATED HYPOTHESES FOR RISK MODELING

Farm level risk analyses have used price and yield variability almost exclusively to represent risk. Results from a survey of 149 agricultural producers in 12 states indicate that producers consider a broader range of sources of variability in their operations. Significant differences exist among categories with respect to the importance of the sources of variability in crop and livestock production. Producers also used a variety of management responses to variability. There were significant difference among categories in the importance given to particular responses and their use of them. These results have implications for research, extension, and policy programs.Risk and Uncertainty,