The Demand for Private Health Insurance in Malawi

This study investigates the determinants of demand for private health insurance among formal sector employees in Malawi, a poor country with heavy pressure on under-funded free government health services. The study is based on membership in the Medical Aid Society of Malawi’s (MASM), three schemes, namely: the VIP, the best; the Executive, the intermediate; and the Econoplan, the minimum. The results indicate that formal sector employees prefer to receive medical treatment from private fee-charging health facilities, where health insurance would be relevant. The study finds that the probability of enrolling in any of MASM’s schemes increases with income and with age for the top and minimum schemes. More children and good health status reduce the probability of enrolling into the two lower schemes. The results suggest the potentially important roles that can be played by information and interventions that address the affordability factor such as through employer contributions that take into consideration income and family size.Health insurance; MASM; Multinomial logit

Global Trade Models and Economic Policy Analyses: Relevance, Risks and Repercussions for Africa

Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are widely used for trade policy analyses and recommendations. Simulation results from these models have also been used as a basis for offering advice to African countries on what positions to take in multilateral trade negotiations. There is however increasing discomfort with the use of these models for policy recommendations, especially in Africa. In this paper we compare the results of several CGE studies that examined the impact of potential Doha Round reforms on Africa and demonstrate that the results differ drastically both in terms of magnitude and direction. Part of the discrepancies in results can be explained by differences in database, model structure, and choice of parameters. Others are, however, difficult to explain because several studies either do not report key assumptions made or do not provide a clear description of how their framework differs from those in the literature. We also show that the modelling approach and the database used in most CGE studies do not take account of key features of African economies that have serious implications for the impact of trade reforms on Africa. Finally, we outline potential consequences of the misuse of CGE models for policy evaluation and suggest pitfalls to avoid if CGE model results are to be taken seriously by policy makers in Africa.Trade Reforms; CGE Models; Doha Round; Africa

Negative Branes, Supergroups and the Signature of Spacetime

We study the realization of supergroup gauge theories using negative branes in string theory. We show that negative branes are intimately connected with the possibility of timelike compactification and exotic spacetime signatures previously studied by Hull. Isolated negative branes dynamically generate a change in spacetime signature near their worldvolumes, and are related by string dualities to a smooth M-theory geometry with closed timelike curves. Using negative D3 branes, we show that $SU(0|N)$ supergroup theories are holographically dual to an exotic variant of type IIB string theory on $dS_{3,2} \times \bar S^5$, for which the emergent dimensions are timelike. Using branes, mirror symmetry and Nekrasov's instanton calculus, all of which agree, we derive the Seiberg-Witten curve for $\mathcal N=2 ~SU(N|M)$ gauge theories. Together with our exploration of holography and string dualities for negative branes, this suggests that supergroup gauge theories may be non-perturbatively well-defined objects, though several puzzles remain.Comment: 66 pages, 12 figures. V2: additional references, minor typo correction

Financing Development in Africa: Trends, Issues and Challenges

Access to finance is critical to successful development in Africa. This paper presents recent trends in various aspects of development finance and provides a critical assessment of the costs of meeting the Millennium Development Goals in the region. It also examines recent proposals for financing the MDGs. Furthermore, it examines the key international commitments made to Africa as well as the extent to which donors have fulfilled these commitments. Finally, it examines issues and challenges arising from recent initiatives on aid and debt.Development; Finance; MDGs; Africa; Trends