The Determinants of Corporate Risk in Emerging Markets: An Option-Adjusted Spread Analysis

This study explores the determinants of corporate bond spreads in emerging market economies. Using a largely unexploited dataset, the paper finds that corporate bond spreads are determined by firm-specific variables, bond characteristics, macroeconomic conditions, sovereign risk, and global factors. A variance decomposition analysis shows that firm-level characteristics account for the larger share of the variance. In addition, the paper finds two asymmetries. The first is in line the sovereign ceiling “lite” hypothesis which states that the transfer of risk from the sovereign to the private sector is less than 1 to 1. The second is consistent with the popular notion that panics are common in emerging markets where investors are less informed and more prone to herding.

The Elasticity of Substitution in Demand for Non-Tradable Goods in Uruguay

This paper`s main goal is to estimate the elasticity of substitution of non-tradable goods, paying special attention to empirical problems related to time-varying parameters, missing regressors and model misspecification. To that end, the paper creates a database and estimates, via three alternative methods, quarterly series of consumption and prices of tradable and non-tradable goods for Uruguay for the period 1983-2002. The econometric estimations of the parameter of interest were performed with VEC models. These estimates give a long-run elasticity of substitution of %0. 46 in the principal model and %0. 71 and %0. 75 in the two alternative models. Parametric stability tests are performed on the principal model, and the predictive ability of the model is also tested. It is concluded that, not only is the parameter of interest stable over time, but the model also has good predictive properties, even when tested in a very demanding environment: the period following Uruguay`s change of exchange rate regime in mid-2002.

La Sostenibilidad de Deuda frente a Riesgo de Catastrofes Naturales

Los desastres naturales son una importante fuente de vulnerabilidad en la región del Caribe. A pesar de ser una de las regiones del mundo con más altas probabilidades de desastres naturales, el Caribe tiene los niveles más bajos de cobertura de seguro. Este articulo examina la vulnerabilidad de las finanzas publicas de Belice debido a la alta ocurrencia de huracanes. El artículo estudia el potencial de instrumentos de aseguración que podrían reducir la vulnerabilidad a estos desastres naturales. Este estudio encuentra que el seguro de Riesgos Catastróficos mejora la sostenibilidad de la deuda del gobierno de Belice. La metodología aplicada por el estudio hace posible estimar el nivel apropiado de cobertura de seguro apropiado. Para el caso de Belice, es como máximo, US$120 millones por año. Organizaciones internacionales pueden jugar un papel importante en asistir a los países a sobrellevar las distorsiones de los mercados de seguros, como también en ayudar a disminuir la resistencia política interna contra la aplicación de esta póliza.

Debt Sustainability Under Catastrophic Risk: The Case for Government Budget Insurance

Natural disasters are an important source of vulnerability in the Caribbean region. Despite being one of the more disaster-prone areas of the world, it has the lowest levels of insurance coverage. This paper examines the vulnerability of Belize’s public finance to the occurrence of hurricanes and the potential impact of insurance instruments in reducing that vulnerability. The paper finds that catastrophic risk insurance significantly improves Belize’s debt sustainability. In addition, the methodology employed makes it possible to estimate the appropriate level of insurance, which for the case of Belize is a maximum coverage of US$120 million per year. International organizations can play a role in assisting countries to overcome distortions in insurance markets, as well as in helping to relax internal political resistance to the purchase of insurance policies.

The determinants of corporate risk in emerging markets: An option-adjusted spreads analysis

This study explores the determinants of corporate bond spreads in emerging markets economies. Using a largely unexploited dataset, the paper finds that corporate bond spreads are determined by firm-specific variables, bond characteristics, macroeconomic conditions, sovereign risk, and global factors. A variance decomposition analysis shows that firm-level characteristics account for the larger share of the variance. In addition, the paper finds two asymmetries. The first is in line the sovereign ceiling 'lite' hypothesis which states that the transfer of risk from the sovereign to the private sector is less than 1 to 1. The second is consistent with the popular notion that panics are common in emerging markets where investors are less informed and more prone to herding

Becoming an entrepreneur

Using the 1996-2001 Chilean CASEN Panel Survey, this paper analyzes the impact on income of the switch from salaried employment to entrepreneurship (self-employment and leadership of micro-enterprises). By means of a differencein-differences non-parametric matching estimator the paper alleviates problems of selection bias (on observable and unobservable traits) and creates the appropriate counterfactuals of interest. The results indicate that the income gains associated with the switch from salaried employment to entrepreneurship are positive, statistically significant and financially substantial. Even more, the results are qualitatively the same using mean and medians, suggesting that the impacts are not influenced by the presence of few 'superstar winners'. Additionally, the income changes associated with the reverse switches (from self-employment to salaried jobs) are negative. The results also suggest interesting gender differences, as females show higher gains than males on the switch from salaried jobs to entrepreneurship and lower losses on the reverse switch

Becoming an entrepreneur

Using the 1996-2001 Chilean CASEN Panel Survey, this paper analyzes the impact on income of the switch from salaried employment to entrepreneurship (self-employment and leadership of micro-enterprises). By means of a difference-in-differences non-parametric matching estimator the paper alleviates problems of selection bias (on observable and unobservable traits) and creates the appropriate counterfactuals of interest. The results indicate that the income gains associated with the switch from salaried employment to entrepreneurship are positive, statistically significant and financially substantial. Even more, the results are qualitatively the same using mean and medians, suggesting that the impacts are not influenced by the presence of few superstar winners. Additionally, the income changes associated with the reverse switches (from self-employment to salaried jobs) are negative. The results also suggest interesting gender differences, as females show higher gains than males on the switch from salaried jobs to entrepreneurship and lower losses on the reverse switch

Business Advisory Services and Female Employment in an Extreme Institutional Context

Funding Information Phil Smith Center for Free Enterprise Fondecyt Regular Project. Grant Number: 1200070 Embassy of the United States in Santiago, Chile Institute for Research in Market Imperfections and Public Policy. Grant Number: ICM IS130002Peer reviewedPostprin

Impactos de un Shock Externo en un Modelo Estocástico de Equilibrio General para una Economía Abierta: El Caso de Chile

Este documento analiza el impacto de un shock en la tasa de interés externa en la economía chilena. Con este fin, se estima un modelo empírico de Vectores Autoregresivos y adicionalmente se desarrolla un modelo estocástico de equilibrio general calibrado y parametrizado para la economía chilena. Del análisis de las funciones impulso-respuesta del modelo empírico se concluye que la autoridad monetaria no debiese reaccionar ante un shock transitorio en la tasa de interés externa. Más aún, si la autoridad monetaria reaccionase causaría una caída en el nivel de producto y un aumento de la tasa de inflación debido al ' price puzzle ' observado. De manera similar, las funciones impulso-respuesta y las simulaciones del modelo teórico utilizando reglas á la Taylor alternativas sugieren que la autoridad monetaria no debería reaccionar ante un aumento de la tasa de interés externa mientras valore la estabilidad de la tasa de inflación por sobre la volatilidad de la tasa de depreciación. Los resultados sugieren que una reacción moderada de la autoridad solamente lograría disminuir la volatilidad del tipo de cambio a un costo de una tasa de inflación más volátil.Monetary Policy, Open Economy General Eqilibrium Model, Foreign Interest Rate Shock, Monetary Policy Rules á la Taylor