Realist ontology for futures studies

All social phenomena, all social interaction, anything that exists in society, is temporal. Anticipation of futures is a necessary part of all social actions, and particularly so in the world of modern organisations. If social sciences are to be relevant they should also be able to say something about possible and likely futures. My paper articulates an ontology for futures studies and then, on that ontological basis, specifies the methodology of futures studies. Critical realist ontology explains why there are multiple possible futures. The actual is only a part of the real world, which also consists of non-actualised possibilities and unexercised powers of the already existing structures and mechanisms that are transfactually efficacious in open systems. Social sciences are also involved in envisaging better possible futures in terms of concrete utopias. However, building concrete utopias is not the only task of a futurologist. We are also interested in other possible and likely futures, and in determining the ways in which our actions and the actions of others contribute 'sometimes via unintended effects and consequences' to making some of them real. Empirico-analytical models have a role to play, as do systematic modelling of geo-historical realities: embodied agency and actors; modes of action; rules and principles; resources, as competencies and facilities; practices; relational structures (of power); and self-organising social systems (also as collective actors). However, scenario-construction should also be seen as self-reflective exercise in cultural studies, moral philosophy and creative ability (in the same way that research and development or the arts are creative)

Back to the Kantian 'idea for a universal history'? Overcoming eurocentric accounts of the international problematic

International theory remains Eurocentric. The implicit assumption is that all relevant modern concepts, practices, technologies and capacities are essentially European. Modernity - including the Industrial Revolution - originates exclusively in Europe, and with it, the modern international problematic. In this paper I argue that it is possible to take steps towards correcting this far-reaching bias with the help of works in the new global history. I develop the idea that there are different layers of time, in which counterfactual possibilities play out in different ways. The Industrial Revolution could also have taken place elsewhere in the Eurasian continent, most plausibly in East Asia (China), with far-reaching world-historical consequences. However, at a deeper level of world-historical time, and at a higher level of abstraction, the modern international problematic would most likely have emerged anyway. Paradoxically, it thus seems that attempts to overcome the Eurocentrism of international theory will lead to a version of universal stages of history along the lines of classical political economy and a universal learning process along the lines of Kant. Finally, I argue that an adequately multi-sided understanding of global history is essential for a global security community and for global democratisation. It grounds an ethical mode of responsiveness that is both open to the accidental historical trajectories layered in one's self and, at the same time, universalisable

The Tobin tax: A new phase in the politics of globalization?

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After international relations, after capitalism: A Rejoinder to Brawen Gruffydd Jones

In her otherwise first-rate review of my After International Relations, Branwen Gruffydd Jones maintains that 'Patomaki refuses to contemplate the necessity of radical social transformation (in the sense of socialist transformation) in the struggle for human emancipation'. 1Nothing could be further from the truth

Global security: Learning from possible futures

Put quite simply, the twin impacts of globalization and environmental degradation pose new security dangers and concerns. In this comprehensive new work on global security thinking, 91 authors from five continents and many disciplines, from science and practice, assess the worldwide reassessment of the meaning of security triggered by the end of the Cold War and globalization, as well as the multifarious impacts of global environmental change in the early 21st century. Chapters address the theoretical, philosophical, ethical and religious and spatial context of security. They analyze the relationship between security, peace, development and environment. The authors move on to review the rethinking of security in international law, economics and political science, as well as in the key political, military and economic milieux. The book also examines the environmental security dimension and the adaptation of the institutional security concepts of the UN, EU and NATO, and analyzes the effect of change on regional security. Finally, it posits alternative security futures and draws conclusions for future research and action

Conclusion: Beyond the political party/civil society dichotomy

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A critical realist approach to global political economy

This book introduces social scientists to the difference that critical realism can make to theorising and methodological problems within the contemporary social sciences. The chapters, which cover such topics as cultural studies, feminism, globalization, heterodox economics, education policy, the self, and the 'underclass' debate, are arranged in four sections dealing with some of the major topics in contemporary social science: ethics, the consequences of the 'linguistic turn', methodology and globalization

A response from between the past and the future: On the ethico-political notion of collective learning of humankind

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Neoliberalism and the global financial crisis

First I make a case for the possibility of defining neoliberalism in a sufficiently evident and coherent way as a programme of resolving problems of, and developing, human society by means of competitive markets. Second, I argue that the more narrow, technical and short-term one's definition of Keynesianism is, the more plausible the claim about a new era of Keynesianism may seem. A multidimensional comparison between ideal-typical models of social democracy and neoliberalism shows, however, that the ongoing global economic crisis has so far prompted responses that are leaving neoliberalisation intact in most dimensions and may even elicit further neoliberalisation. I conclude by discussing the limits of thinking about ideologies in territorial-statist terms. The current era may well be replaced by an era of green global Keynesianism; but a full-scale return to mere national social democracy is unlikely, especially given the discrepancy between the reaches of territorial states and private capital operating in competitive, liberalised world markets

The draft treaty and the NIGD strategy for global democratisation

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