Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Methods: The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk–outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk–outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk–outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk–outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws. Findings: Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7–9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4–9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7–6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8–6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8–6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0–4 years and 5–14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9–27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5–28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3–56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9–21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3–12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6–1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1–1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4–78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2–72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP). Interpretation: Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. METHODS: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. FINDINGS: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. INTERPRETATION: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Meso-scale soğutma cihazlar deneysel ve sayısal sıcaklık transfer analiz sayısal

Thesis (M.A.)--Özyeğin University, Graduate School of Sciences and Engineering, Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, January 2017.Various thermal management strategies and related technologies are recently developed based on the specific needs, which they are designed to fulfill. Some of these technologies are muffin fans, synthetic jets, and piezoelectric fans. These three technologies are chosen based on the need to compare their core system of heat removing. The muffin fans are the small scale of the normal rotary fans which exploit a number of blades to produce a flow, which performs the cooling. Synthetic jets and the piezoelectric fans both use the oscillation created by a piezoelectric plate to establish a flow. The presence of an oscillating diaphragm in the synthetic jets simulates the breathing process which is done in the lungs of a human being. In the case of piezoelectric fans, the blade is being replaced with an oscillating cantilever beam which periodic movement generates a flow that eventually removes the heat. This study consists of various parts; in the first part, previously mentioned technologies are experimentally compared, in terms of their heat transfer characteristics. In order to test the technologies, an experimental system was designed and manufactured. The test system consists of two main compartments. The heat source and the cooling device; cooling devices are secured on a plexi fixture. This stand is adjustable so that the cooling device can operate in various distances. Fixtures are designed and manufactured to securely hold the devices in position, in order to avoid any extra oscillation during operation. The heat source of the test set up is a square copper heater, placed in front of the cooling technology, which is under the tests. Then, the effect of distance on the heat removal of these cooling devices are examined and reported by putting them at various distances. For the case of the muffin fan, it was observed that the heat transfer coefficient showed inverse relation with distance; higher distance exhibited low heat transfer and thus the fan was only applicable at close distances to the heater. For the synthetic jet, an optimum distance existed after which the heat transfer was not efficient. In the case of the piezoelectric fan, not only increase in the distance resulted on the low heat transfer coefficient but also the heat transfer coefficient depended on the deflection of the piezoelectric fan slab. The effect of slab deflection is studied by the use of two different materials, mylar and metallic substrate fans. The highest Nusselt number for the synthetic jet and the piezoelectric fan is around 60 while for the muffin fan this number is less than 20. The deflection of the piezoelectric slab is so crucial that in the case of the mylar slab the highest achieved heat transfer coefficient is 20 W/m2-K, while for the metallic fan it is approximately three times higher than mylar and it is about 58 W/m2-K. Beside the extensive experimental investigations, the piezoelectric fan is numerically modeled via FLUENT-ANSYS software in order to find the inaccessible results during experiments and better understanding of phenomena. The numerical results are in accordance with the experimental outcomes with a deviation of about 20 percent. The maximum velocity is found to be approximately 1.8 m/s. The flow is also being visualized by the use of the PIV imaging during the heat transfer characteristics examination of the piezoelectric fan. PIV imaging results shed light on side cooling that partially happens at the close distances. The phenomenon of the side cooling is captured after the movement analysis of more than 5000 frames of the operating maylar piezoelectric fan. It is seen that in the distance less than 5 mm there is no time for the formation of the vortex and thus the induced flow is deprived towards the sides. This means that while the heat source is coordinated in the centerline of the fan; the induced flow is cooling the heat source sides and not the heater itself. This is not desirable since the cooling efficiency is lowered at this state. Finally, a high-speed camera has also been used to capture the on spot behavior of the piezoelectric fan over the flow. With the frequency of 3000 frames per second of camera, the flow is captured by the use of a smoke pen. The vortex formation is seen within the various frequencies of the piezoelectric fan. The effect of deflection value is also captured by the sequences of the camera. The formed vortex radius is different in the case of different deflection values.  Son zamanlarda çeşitli termal yönetim stratejileri ve ilgili teknolojiler, özel ihtiyaçları yerine getirmek üzerine dayanarak geliştirilmektedir. Bu teknolojilerin bazıları muffin fanları, sentetik jetler ve piezoelektrik fanlardır. Bu üç teknoloji kendi çekirdek ısı giderim sistem karşılaştırma ihtiyacını baz alınarak seçilmiştir. Muffin fanları, normal döner fanların küçük ölçeğidirler ve Soğutma yapan bir akım üretmek için bir dizi bıçak kullanırlar. Sentetik jetleri ve piezoelektrik fanların ikisi de akım oluşturmak için bir piezoelektrik plaka tarafından oluşturulan salınımı kullanırlar. Sentetik Jetlerde salınımlı bir diyafram varlığı insanın akciğerinde yapılan nefes alma işlemini simule eder. Bıçak, Piezoelektrik fanlardaki periyodik hareketi sonucunda ısıyı gideren bir akış oluşturan salınımlı konsol ışını ile değiştiriliyor. Bu çalışma çeşitli bölümlerden oluşmaktadır, birinci bölümde, daha önce bahsedilen teknolojiler deneysel olarak, ısı transfer karakteristikleri bakımından karşılaştırılmıştır. Teknolojileri test etmek için deneysel bir sistem tasarlanıp ve üretilmiştir. Test sistemi iki ana bölmeden oluşur. Isı kaynağı ve soğutma cihazı; Soğutma cihazları bir plexi fikstüre sabitlenmiştir. Bu stand ayarlanabilir, böylece soğutma cihazı çeşitli mesafelerde çalışabilir. Fikstürler, çalışma esnasında ekstra salınımı önlemek için cihazları sabit tutacak şekilde tasarlanıp ve üretilmiştir. Testin kurulumun ısı kaynağı, testlerin altında olan soğutma teknolojisinin önüne yerleştirilen kare bir bakır ısıtıcıdır. Daha sonra uzaklığın bu soğutma cihazlarının ısı gidermesi üzerindeki etkisi, çeşitli mesafelere yerleştirilerek incelenir ve raporlanır Muffin fan durumunda, ısı transfer katsayısının mesafe ile ters ilişki gösterdiği, yüksek mesafenin düşük ısı transferi sergilediği ve bu nedenle fan ısıtıcıya yakın mesafelerde uygulanabileceği görülmüştür. Sentetik jetler için, ısı aktarımı etkili olmadıktan sonra optimum bir mesafe oluşur. Piezoelektrik fan durumunda, yalnızca düşük ısı aktarım katsayısı ile sonuçlanan mesafedeki artış değil, aynı zamanda, ısı aktarım katsayısı piezoelektrik fan levhasının dönmesine bağlıdır. Levhanın dönme etkisi, mylar ve metalik substrate fanları olmak üzere iki farklı malzeme kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Sentetik jet ve piezoelektrik fan için en yüksek Nusselt sayısı 60 civarındayken, muffin fanında bu sayı 20 den düşüktür. Piezoelektrik levhanın dönmesi o kadar önemlidir ki, mylar levhasında elde edilen en büyük ısı transferi eşdeğeri 20 W/m2-K dır, metalik fan için mylar'dan yaklaşık üç kat daha yüksektir ve yaklaşık 58 W/m2-K dır. Kapsamlı deneysel soruşturmaların yanı sıra, Deneyler sırasında erişilemeyen sonuçların bulunması ve olayların daha iyi anlaşılması için, , piezoelektrik fan, sayısal olarak FLUENT-ANSYS yazılımı ile modellenmiştir. Sayısal sonuçlar, yaklaşık yüzde 20 sapma ile deney sonuçları ile uyumludur. Maksimum hız Yaklaşık 1.8 m/s olduğu bulunmuştur. Akış, piezoelektrik fanın ısı transfer özellikleri incelemesi sırasında PIV görüntüleme yöntemiyle de görselleştirilmektedir. PIV görüntüleme sonuçları, kısmen yakın mesafelerde gerçekleşen yan soğutma açıklığa kavuşturmasına yol açıyor. Yan soğutma olayı, 5000'den fazla kare maylar piezoelektrik fanın hareket analizinden sonra ele geçiyor. 5 mm'den daha az uzaklığa vorteks oluşumu için zaman olmadığı ve dolayısıyla sonuçlanan akışın yanlara doğru yoksun olduğu görülmektedir. Bunun anlamı, ısı kaynağının fan merkez çizgisinde koordine edilmesine rağmen, sonuçlanan akış ısı kaynağının yanlarını soğutulup, Isıtıcının kendisinin soğutulmamasıdır, bu durum arzu edilmez çünkü bu durumda soğutma verimi düşürülür. Son olarak, yüksek hızlı bir kamera 'da piezoelektrik fanın akış üzerindeki nokta davranışını kaydetmek için kullanılmıştır. Kameranın saniyede 3000 kare frekansıyla akış bir duman kalemi kullanılarak kaydedilmiştir. Vorteks oluşumu piezoelektrik fanının çeşitli frekanslarında görülür. Dönme değerinin etkisi kameranın dizileri tarafından da kaydedilmiştir. Oluşan vorteks etki alanı, farklı dönme değerleri durumunda farklıdır

The Persian Suffixes ‘-zɑr’, ‘-kæde’, and ‘-estɑn’ within the Framework of Construction Morphology

The purpose of the present research is to investigate three Persian derivational suffixes ‘-zɑr’, ‘-kæde’ and ‘-estɑn’ from a construction-based perspective and to analyze their various formal and semantic aspects. The study applies the framework of Construction Morphology (Booij, 2010, 2018) to address the word-formation patterns based on the notions of ‘construction’ and ‘constructional schema’ and explain their polysemy using the notion of ‘constructional subschema’. The research data are adapted from author’s own morphological corpus (including more than 12000 Persian compound and affixed words), Farhang-e Emlaee Khatt-e Farsi (Sadeghi & Zandi-Moghadam, 2012) and Farhang-e Zānsoo (Reverse Dictionary, Keshani 1993) which include 187 derivative words with the three aforementioned suffixes. The results reveal that in order to explain the polysemy of word-formation patterns of these suffixes, we need to adopt the idea of hierarchical lexicon and the notion of constructional subschemas so that we can consider distinct meanings as different subschemas. These subschemas are at different levels of abstraction and are related to a more abstract, high-order schema. This is called constructional polysemy, a kind of polysemy explained not at the level of concrete words, but rather at the level of abstract constructional schemas

An experimental and computational investigation of a thin piezofan cooler

Due to copyright restrictions, the access to the full text of this article is only available via subscription.Recent trends in electronic cooling systems are targeted towards a reduction in size, therefore small form factor/miniature cooling devices are of interest to various applications. Among these devices are piezoelectric fans which are simply made of vibrating plates and shed vortices from their leading edge and enhance heat transfer from nearby target surfaces. This paper investigates the flow and temperature fields produced by a piezoelectric fan. An experimental study is performed to determine the temperature distribution of a vertically heated surface under various fan tip-to-target surface distances and driving conditions of the piezoelectric device (frequency). 2-D numerical simulations are carried out to predict the momentum and temperature fields in the domain of interest under the same boundary conditions of the experimental effort. The numerical results are in reasonably good agreement with the measured experimental data. The relevant dimensionless parameters such as Nusselt, Strouhal, and Keulegan-Carpenter numbers are determined. With a maximum Nusselt number of 20 and 57 for mylar and metallic piezo fans, respectively, the corresponding Strouhal, and Keulegan-Carpenter numbers suggest that a vortex formation occurs at the blade tip, however these vortices are weak such that they are neither able to approach the target surface as high strength structures nor improve heat removal significantly for the range of measurements.Aselsan ; SSM (undersecretary of Turkish ministry of defense) ; Istanbul Development Agenc

The Polysemy of Suffix “-ɑne”: A Construction Morphology Approach

The purpose of the present research is to analyze the Persian suffix ‘- ɑne’ and to examine its various structural and semantic/functional aspects. The study adopts a construction-based approach and uses the framework of Construction Morphology theory which tries to explain the word formation patterns using the notions of “construction” and “constructional schemas” and to shows hierarchical relations among constructional schemas and subschemas in a systematic manner. The data includes 944 derivative words with the suffix ‘-ɑne’ which are adapted from author’s own morphological corpus (including more than 10000 Persian compound and affixed words), Farhang-e Zānsoo (Reverse Dictionary, Keshani 1993) and Farhang-e Pasvand dar Zabān-e Fārsi (The Dictionary of Persian Suffixes, Ravaghi 2009). The findings of the research show that the suffix “-ɑne” has a remarkable semantic diversity and can appears in 12 constructional subschemas to form new nouns, adjectives or adverbs. This polysemy is not explainable at the level of concrete words but at the level of abstract constructional schemas, and therefore is called “constructional polysemy”

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Methods: The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk–outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk–outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk–outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk–outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws. Findings: Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7–9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4–9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7–6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8–6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8–6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0–4 years and 5–14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9–27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5–28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3–56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9–21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3–12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6–1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1–1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4–78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2–72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP). Interpretation: Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions. Funding: Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation.</p