Real Dollarization, Financial Dollarization, and Monetary Policy

This paper explores the interaction of real dollarization (dollar indexing of wages), financial dollarization (dollar denomination of financial contracts) and monetary policy in a general equilibrium model with real shocks. Real dollarization is avoided as long as the home monetary authorities perform optimally (i.e., they maximize local welfare). Instead, dollarization increases when central banks perform poorly, and even more so when the correlation between domestic and external shocks is high, since in this case the (presumably optimal) foreign monetary policy guarantees a better level of protection against macroeconomic uncertainty. While real dollarization contributes to financial dollarization, important asymmetries between the two arise.

Optimal Interest Rate Policy in a Small Open Economy

Using an optimizing model we derive the optimal monetary and exchange rate policy for a small stochastic open economy with imperfect competition and short run price rigidity. The optimal monetary policy has an exact closed-form solution and is obtained using the utility function of the representative home agent as welfare criterion. The optimal policy depends on the source of stochastic disturbances affecting the economy, much as in the literature pioneered by Poole (1970). Optimal monetary policy reacts to domestic and foreign disturbances. If the intertemporal elasticity of substitution in consumption is less than one, as is likely to be the case empirically, the optimal exchange rate policy implies a dirty float: interest rate shocks from abroad are met partially by adjusting home interest rates, and partially by allowing the exchange rate to move. This optimal pattern may help rationalize the observed fear of floating.

The Quest for Price Stability in Central America and the Dominican Republic

Why hasn’t inflation converged to price stability in Central America and the Dominican Republic? Why is it currently still high by Latin American standards? This paper addresses these questions, and finds that despite the institutional strengthening of monetary policy, important flaws remain in most central banks, in particular the lack of a clear policy mandate and little political autonomy, which are hurting the consistency of policy implementation. Empirical analysis reveals that all central banks raise interest rates to curtail inflation, but only some of them make large enough increases to effectively tackle inflation pressures. It also shows that some central banks care simultaneously about exchange rate stability. The potential policy conflict arising from a dual central bank mandate and the unpredictable policy response is probably undermining market confidence in central banks’ commitment to price stability, thereby perpetuating an inflation bias.

Alternative Monetary Rules in the Open-Economy: a Welfare-Based Approach

Using an optimizing model we compare alternative monetary policy rules and exchange rate regimes for a small stochastic open economy with imperfect competition and short run price rigidity. The criteria to choose among rules and regimes are obtained using a welfare criterion derived from the utility function of the representative agent. The main findings of this paper are that, depending on what shocks affect this economy, the effects of inflation targeting on output and inflation volatility depend crucially on the exchange rate regime and the inflation index being targeted. With regard to the exchange rate, we find that the loss in agents’ welfare is much higher under managed exchange rates than under flexible rates in presence of real shocks, while for nominal shocks the reverse is true. As far as the definition of inflation targeting index is concerned, domestic inflation appears to outperform the CPI. Finally, flexible inflation targeting is welfare superior to strict targeting.

Overshooting Meets Inflation Targeting

This paper revisits Dornbusch’s overshooting model; first, to discuss the conditions of overshooting and undershooting, extending the model to consider monetary policy rules and imperfect capital mobility. And second, to outline Dornbusch’s representation in the context of a simple dynamic neo-Keynesian model that can be used to analyze the impact of persistent changes in monetary policy, among other shocks. The model considers inflation targeting in a small open economy setup, which is characterized by imperfect competition and short-run price rigidity. The main findings of the paper are consistent with the original contribution where the exchange rate overshoots its long run equilibrium. We also show that flexible exchange rates dominate managed exchange rates in terms of output and inflation volatility in the presence of real shocks, while for nominal shocks the reverse is true.

Effects of Foreign and Domestic Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy: the Case of Chile

This paper considers empirical evidence for a small open economy, characterizing and identifying the dynamic effects of both foreign and monetary policy shocks on Chilean macroeconomic variables. A structural VAR approach is used with non-recursive contemporaneous restrictions. Several interesting results appear in the analysis. First, consistent with the predictions of a stochastic rational expectations model, a domestic monetary contraction generates a transitory fall in output and monetary aggregates. Second, there is no evidence of price and exchange rate puzzles. Third, the source of Chilean output, price level, and real exchange rate volatility is similar to that identified in industrial countries: monetary policy explains a relatively small proportion of output, price level, and exchange rate variability. Finally, foreign monetary policy innovations have very short-lived effects on domestic interest rates and have no major influence over other Chilean macroeconomic variables; while risk premium shocks influence significatively both the interest rate and the exchange rate.

Distribution of Assets, Debt, and Income of Chilean Households

This paper summarizes the main results from the latest household panel survey (Social Protection Survey 2004/05 about the distribution of assets, debt and income across Chilean households. Several appealing conclusions can be drawn. First of all, it is worth stressing that a relatively small proportion of households hold a large share of debts, assets and income. In particular, the richest quintile concentrates 57% and 43% of debts and assets, respectively. Overall, households that hold the largest share of the debt are composed by young adults with higher education and formal employment contracts. The analysis also shows that, for the vast majority of households, 80%, their assets are greater than their liabilities, and hence, they are financially less vulnerable to changes in macroeconomic and financial conditions. Only 4% of households register negative net worth and a heavy debt service burden. This highly vulnerable group concentrates 9% of total debt.

"Occupational and Industrial Mobility in the United States 1969–93"

Using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we investigate occupational and industrial mobility of individuals over the 1969–80 and 1981–93 periods in the United States. We find that workers changed both occupations and industries more frequently in the later period. For example, occupational mobility for men ranged from 15 to 20 percent per year during the first period and from 20 to 25 percent per year over the second. We also find that, for men, occupational and industrial changes are associated with lower earnings, though this effect has lessened somewhat over time, while for women the results are mixed. Our results also indicate that older and less educated workers are less likely to shift occupation or industry, as are better paid men but not better paid women.

Business Cycle Dynamics and Shock Resilience in Chile

In this paper we use a VAR model to analyze the response of the Chilean business cycle to shocks and the capacity of the Chilean economy to withstand them (resilience). Novel features in the analysis include the introduction of an expanded set of variables to capture the impact of external shocks and domestic shocks —including policy variables; the use of an extended sample since the 1950s; and the introduction of block exogeneity to capture the small open economy feature and to better deal with identification issues. Among key results, we find that foreign shocks have been the dominant source of business cycle fluctuations, followed by monetary policy shocks, while fiscal policy shocks explain relatively little; and that despite of the increased synchronization of the domestic business cycle with international conditions, the resilience of the Chilean economy to external shocks has increased during the nineties, with countercyclical policies playing an important role in such a positive development

Pricing Policies and Inflation Inertia

The paper proposes a monetary model with nominal rigidities that differs from the conventional New Keynesian model in that firms set pricing policies instead of price levels. In response to permanent or highly persistent monetary policy shocks this model generates the empirically observed slow (inertial) and prolonged (persistent) reaction of the inflation rate, and also the recession which typically accompanies moderate disinflations. The reason is that firms respond to such shocks mostly through achange in the long-run or inflation updating component of their pricing policies. With staggered pricing policies this takes time to be reflected in aggregate inflation.