The spectral evolution of impulsive solar X-ray flares. II.Comparison of observations with models

We study the evolution of the spectral index and the normalization (flux) of the non-thermal component of the electron spectra observed by RHESSI during 24 solar hard X-ray flares. The quantitative evolution is confronted with the predictions of simple electron acceleration models featuring the soft-hard-soft behaviour. The comparison is general in scope and can be applied to different acceleration models, provided that they make predictions for the behavior of the spectral index as a function of the normalization. A simple stochastic acceleration model yields plausible best-fit model parameters for about 77% of the 141 events consisting of rise and decay phases of individual hard X-ray peaks. However, it implies unphysically high electron acceleration rates and total energies for the others. Other simple acceleration models such as constant rate of accelerated electrons or constant input power have a similar failure rate. The peaks inconsistent with the simple acceleration models have smaller variations in the spectral index. The cases compatible with a simple stochastic model require typically a few times 10^36 electrons accelerated per second at a threshold energy of 18 keV in the rise phases and 24 keV in the decay phases of the flare peaks.Comment: 9 pages, 4 figures, accepted for publication by A&

A New Metric for Quantifying Burn Severity: The Relativized Burn Ratio

Satellite-inferred burn severity data have become increasingly popular over the last decade for management and research purposes. These data typically quantify spectral change between pre-and post-fire satellite images (usually Landsat). There is an active debate regarding which of the two main equations, the delta normalized burn ratio (dNBR) and its relativized form (RdNBR), is most suitable for quantifying burn severity; each has its critics. In this study, we propose and evaluate a new Landsat-based burn severity metric, the relativized burn ratio (RBR), that provides an alternative to dNBR and RdNBR. For 18 fires in the western US, we compared the performance of RBR to both dNBR and RdNBR by evaluating the agreement of these metrics with field-based burn severity measurements. Specifically, we evaluated (1) the correspondence between each metric and a continuous measure of burn severity (the composite burn index) and (2) the overall accuracy of each metric when classifying into discrete burn severity classes (i.e., unchanged, low, moderate, and high). Results indicate that RBR corresponds better to field-based measurements (average R2 among 18 fires = 0.786) than both dNBR (R2 = 0.761) and RdNBR (R2 = 0.766). Furthermore, the overall classification accuracy achieved with RBR (average among 18 fires = 70.5%) was higher than both dNBR (68.4%) and RdNBR (69.2%). Consequently, we recommend RBR as a robust alternative to both dNBR and RdNBR for measuring and classifying burn severity

Fire Activity and Severity in the Western US Vary along Proxy Gradients Representing Fuel Amount and Fuel Moisture

Numerous theoretical and empirical studies have shown that wildfire activity (e.g., area burned) at regional to global scales may be limited at the extremes of environmental gradients such as productivity or moisture. Fire activity, however, represents only one component of the fire regime, and no studies to date have characterized fire severity along such gradients. Given the importance of fire severity in dictating ecological response to fire, this is a considerable knowledge gap. For the western US, we quantify relationships between climate and the fire regime by empirically describing both fire activity and severity along two climatic water balance gradients, actual evapotranspiration (AET) and water deficit (WD), that can be considered proxies for fuel amount and fuel moisture, respectively. We also concurrently summarize fire activity and severity among ecoregions, providing an empirically based description of the geographic distribution of fire regimes. Our results show that fire activity in the western US increases with fuel amount (represented by AET) but has a unimodal (i.e., humped) relationship with fuel moisture (represented by WD); fire severity increases with fuel amount and fuel moisture. The explicit links between fire regime components and physical environmental gradients suggest that multivariable statistical models can be generated to produce an empirically based fire regime map for the western US. Such models will potentially enable researchers to anticipate climate-mediated changes in fire recurrence and its impacts based on gridded spatial data representing future climate scenarios

Contrasting human influences and macro-environmental factors on fire activity inside and outside protected areas in North America

Human activities threaten the effectiveness of protected areas (PAs) in achieving their conservation goals across the globe. In this study, we contrast the influence of human and macro-environmental factors driving fire activity inside and outside PAs. Using area burned between 1984 and 2014 for 11 ecoregions in Canada and the United States, we built and compared statistical models of fire likelihood using the MaxEnt software and a set of 11 key anthropogenic, climatic, and physical variables. Overall, the full model (i.e. including all variables) performed better (adjusted area under the curve ranging from 0.71 to 0.95 for individual ecoregions) than the model that excluded anthropogenic variables. Both model types (with and without anthropogenic variables) generally performed better inside than outside the PAs. Climatic variables were usually of foremost importance in explaining fire activity inside and outside PAs, with anthropogenic variables being the second most important predictors, even inside PAs. While the individual contributions of anthropogenic variables indicate that fire activity decreased as of function of increasing human footprint, the anthropogenic effects were often substantially greater than those of physical features and were comparable to or even greater than climatic effects in some densely developed ecoregions, both outside and within PAs (e.g. Mediterranean California, Eastern Temperate Forest, and Tropical Wet Forests). Together, these results show the pervasive impact of humans on fire regimes inside PAs, as well as outside PAs. Given the increasing attractiveness of PAs, the implications for adaptive fire management beyond the concept of naturalness in the PAs are discussed. Our assessment of human-altered fire activity could serve as an indicator of human pressure in PAs; however, we suggest that further analysis is needed to understand specific interactions among fire, human pressures, and the environmental conditions at the scale of PAs

Wildland fire deficit and surplus in the western United States, 1984–2012

Wildland fire is an important disturbance agent in the western US and globally. However, the natural role of fire has been disrupted in many regions due to the influence of human activities, which have the potential to either exclude or promote fire, resulting in a ‘‘fire deficit’’ or ‘‘fire surplus’’, respectively. In this study, we developed a model of expected area burned for the western US as a function of climate from 1984 to 2012.We then quantified departures from expected area burned to identify geographic regions with fire deficit or surplus. We developed our model of area burned as a function of several climatic variables from reference areas with low human influence; the relationship between climate and fire is strong in these areas. We then quantified the degree of fire deficit or surplus for all areas of the western US as the difference between expected (as predicted with the model) and observed area burned from 1984 to 2012. Results indicate that many forested areas in the western US experienced a fire deficit from 1984 to 2012, likely due to fire exclusion by human activities. We also found that large expanses of non-forested regions experienced a fire surplus, presumably due to introduced annual grasses and the prevalence of anthropogenic ignitions. The heterogeneity in patterns of fire deficit and surplus among ecoregions emphasizes fundamentally different ecosystem sensitivities to human influences and suggests that largescale adaptation and mitigation strategies will be necessary in order to restore and maintain resilient, healthy, and naturally functioning ecosystems

Wildland fire deficit and surplus in the western United States, 1984–2012

Wildland fire is an important disturbance agent in the western US and globally. However, the natural role of fire has been disrupted in many regions due to the influence of human activities, which have the potential to either exclude or promote fire, resulting in a ‘‘fire deficit’’ or ‘‘fire surplus’’, respectively. In this study, we developed a model of expected area burned for the western US as a function of climate from 1984 to 2012.We then quantified departures from expected area burned to identify geographic regions with fire deficit or surplus. We developed our model of area burned as a function of several climatic variables from reference areas with low human influence; the relationship between climate and fire is strong in these areas. We then quantified the degree of fire deficit or surplus for all areas of the western US as the difference between expected (as predicted with the model) and observed area burned from 1984 to 2012. Results indicate that many forested areas in the western US experienced a fire deficit from 1984 to 2012, likely due to fire exclusion by human activities. We also found that large expanses of non-forested regions experienced a fire surplus, presumably due to introduced annual grasses and the prevalence of anthropogenic ignitions. The heterogeneity in patterns of fire deficit and surplus among ecoregions emphasizes fundamentally different ecosystem sensitivities to human influences and suggests that largescale adaptation and mitigation strategies will be necessary in order to restore and maintain resilient, healthy, and naturally functioning ecosystems

Wildland fire deficit and surplus in the western United States, 1984-2012

Wildland fire is an important disturbance agent in the western US and globally. However, the natural role of fire has been disrupted in many regions due to the influence of human activities, which have the potential to either exclude or promote fire, resulting in a fire deficit or fire surplus, respectively. In this study, we developed a model of expected area burned for the western US as a function of climate from 1984 to 2012. We then quantified departures from expected area burned to identify geographic regions with fire deficit or surplus. We developed our model of area burned as a function of several climatic variables from reference areas with low human influence; the relationship between climate and fire is strong in these areas. We then quantified the degree of fire deficit or surplus for all areas of the western US as the difference between expected (as predicted with the model) and observed area burned from 1984 to 2012. Results indicate that many forested areas in the western US experienced a fire deficit from 1984 to 2012, likely due to fire exclusion by human activities. We also found that large expanses of non-forested regions experienced a fire surplus, presumably due to introduced annual grasses and the prevalence of anthropogenic ignitions. The heterogeneity in patterns of fire deficit and surplus among ecoregions emphasizes fundamentally different ecosystem sensitivities to human influences and suggests that large scale adaptation and mitigation strategies will be necessary in order to restore and maintain resilient, healthy, and naturally functioning ecosystems

Standardization of epidemiological surveillance of acute rheumatic fever

Acute rheumatic fever (ARF) is a multiorgan inflammatory disorder that results from the body’s autoimmune response to pharyngitis or a skin infection caused by Streptococcus pyogenes (Strep A). Acute rheumatic fever mainly affects those in low- and middle-income nations, as well as in indigenous populations in wealthy nations, where initial Strep A infections may go undetected. A single episode of ARF puts a person at increased risk of developing long-term cardiac damage known as rheumatic heart disease. We present case definitions for both definite and possible ARF, including initial and recurrent episodes, according to the 2015 Jones Criteria, and we discuss current tests available to aid in the diagnosis. We outline the considerations specific to ARF surveillance methodology, including discussion on where and how to conduct active or passive surveillance (eg, early childhood centers/schools, households, primary healthcare, administrative database review), participant eligibility, and the surveillance population. Additional considerations for ARF surveillance, including implications for secondary prophylaxis and follow-up, ARF registers, community engagement, and the impact of surveillance, are addressed. Finally, the core elements of case report forms for ARF, monitoring and audit requirements, quality control and assurance, and the ethics of conducting surveillance are discussed

A versatile element for gene addition in bacterial chromosomes

The increasing interest in genetic manipulation of bacterial host metabolic pathways for protein or small molecule production has led to a need to add new genes to a chromosome quickly and easily without leaving behind a selectable marker. The present report describes a vector and four-day procedure that enable site-specific chromosomal insertion of cloned genes in a context insulated from external transcription, usable once in a construction series. The use of rhamnose-inducible transcription from rhaBp allows regulation of the inserted genes independently of the commonly used IPTG and arabinose strategies. Using lacZ as a reporter, we first show that expression from the rhamnose promoter is tightly regulatable, exhibiting very low leakage of background expression compared with background, and moderate rhamnose-induced expression compared with IPTG-induced expression from lacp. Second, the expression of a DNA methyltransferase was used to show that rhamnose regulation yielded on-off expression of this enzyme, such that a resident high-copy plasmid was either fully sensitive or fully resistant to isoschizomer restriction enzyme cleavage. In both cases, growth medium manipulation allows intermediate levels of expression. The vehicle can also be adapted as an ORF-cloning vector

Adaptation of a mobile interactive obesity treatment approach for early severe mental illness: Protocol for a mixed methods implementation and pilot randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Obesity is common in individuals with severe mental illness (SMI), contributing to a significantly shortened lifespan when compared to the general population. Available weight loss treatments have attenuated efficacy in this population, underscoring the importance of prevention and early intervention. OBJECTIVE: Here, we describe a type 1 hybrid study design for adapting and pilot-testing an existing mobile health intervention for obesity prevention in individuals with early SMI and Class I or early-stage obesity, defined as a BMI of 30-35. METHODS: An existing, evidence-based interactive obesity treatment approach using low-cost, semiautomated SMS text messaging was selected for adaptation. Community mental health clinics and Clubhouse settings in Eastern Missouri and South Florida were identified to participate. This study has the following 3 aims. First, using the Enhanced Framework for Reporting Adaptations and Modifications to Evidence-based interventions, contextual aspects of the clinical and digital treatment environments are identified for adaptation, considering 5 main stakeholder groups (clinical administrators, prescribing clinicians, case managers, nurses, and patients). Following a 2-week trial of unadapted SMS text messaging, Innovation Corps methods are used to discover needed intervention adaptations by stakeholder group and clinical setting. Second, adaptations to digital functionality and intervention content will be made based on themes identified in aim 1, followed by rapid usability testing with key stakeholders. A process for iterative treatment adaptation will be developed for making unplanned modifications during the aim 3 implementation pilot study. Individuals working in partner community mental health clinics and Clubhouse settings will be trained in intervention delivery. Third, in a randomized pilot and feasibility trial, adults with 5 years or less of treatment for an SMI diagnosis will be randomized 2:1 to 6 months of an adapted interactive obesity treatment approach or to an attentional control condition, followed by a 3-month extension phase of SMS text messages only. Changes in weight, BMI, and behavioral outcomes, as well as implementation challenges, will be evaluated at 6 and 9 months. RESULTS: Institutional review board approval for aims 1 and 2 was granted on August 12, 2018, with 72 focus group participants enrolled; institutional review board approval for aim 3 was granted on May 6, 2020. To date, 52 participants have been enrolled in the study protocol. CONCLUSIONS: In this type 1 hybrid study design, we apply an evidence-based treatment adaptation framework to plan, adapt, and feasibility test a mobile health intervention in real-world treatment settings. Resting at the intersection of community mental health treatment and physical health promotion, this study aims to advance the use of simple technology for obesity prevention in individuals with early-stage mental illness. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03980743; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03980743. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): DERR1-10.2196/42114