What is the Ideal Monetary Policy Regime? Improving the Bank of Canada's Inflation-targeting Program

The recent financial crisis has emphasized the role of sound monetary policy for ensuring Canada’s future prosperity. Although much is right with the Bank of Canada’s inflation-targeting regime, improvements such as price-level targeting and closer attention to potential financial instability should be considered in the lead-up to the renewal of the program in 2011.monetary policy, central bank policy, inflation-targeting program

Overnight Moves: The Bank of Canada Should Start to Raise Interest Rates Now

When the Bank of Canada will begin raising interest rates is looking very different than when it should even though the risks of postponement are growing. If more “no-change” decisions are made by the Bank of Canada regarding its policy interest rate, inflation expectations might begin to slip loose of their 2 percent anchor. Further, with the Fed continuing to hold a near-zero rate, the US dollar is likely to continue its steady slide. If the Canadian dollar moves at least partially with the US dollar, because the Bank of Canada keeps its interest rate close to the federal funds rate, the higher inflation rates of energy and other commodity prices that are currently deemed temporary might start to look permanent.Monetary Policy, Bank of Canada, interest rates, inflation rate

How Soon? How Fast? Interest Rates and Other Monetary Policy Decisions in 2010

With the economic recovery taking hold and the Bank of Canada’s conditional commitment to keep the overnight rate at 0.25 percent expiring soon, a number of questions about the conduct of monetary policy need to be considered. The author argues the Bank should keep its conditional commitment, but should thereafter raise the overnight rate sharply by 50 basis points at every announcement date until mid-2011. In addition, the Bank should publish conditional statements about the future path of the policy rate to help shape market expectations and avoid surprises that disrupt financial markets, output, and employment. Further, the Bank should withdraw its injection of excess reserves at a future preannounced date and should gradually wind down credit easing measures.Monetary Policy, Bank of Canada, overnight interest rate

Greater Transparency Needed

Financial market participants would benefit from a better understanding of how the Bank of Canada sets the overnight interest rate in response to economic developments. More accurate forecasts of the Bank’s future policy choices would lead to better financial decisions and better price and wage-setting decisions, making it easier for the Bank to hit its 2 percent inflation target. Currently, the Bank’s internal model predicts a path for the overnight rate that is inconsistent with the expectations of the Bank’s Governing Council. The Bank could achieve greater transparency by publishing its own conditional forecasts of the future path of the overnight rate or, failing that, by publishing such forecasts with a six-month lag. This would enable market participants to better understand what these forecasts mean and how to use them in economic decision-making.Monetary Policy, Bank of Canada, overnight interest rate, inflation target

2013-3 The Effects of Central Bank Independence and Inflation Targeting on Macroeconomic Performance: Evidence from Natural Experiments

I investigate the effects of central bank independence and inflation targeting on macroeconomic performance in 26 advanced economies during the period 1980 to 2011. I find that both improve macroeconomic performance but inflation targeting is the more effective arrangement. When a central bank becomes more independent, it lowers the inflation rate and the variability of inflation but has no effect on real GDP or unemployment. When a central bank becomes an inflation targeter, it lowers the inflation rate, the variability of inflation, the variability of real GDP growth and the output gap, and has no effect on unemployment

2013-1 Central Bank Laws and Monetary Policy Outcomes: A Three Decade Perspective

Thomas Cargill (University of Nevada-Reno) at the meetings of the American Economi