Modeling of the trajectory of the level fluctuations in Lake Naroch

Кирвель Иван И.; Волчек Александр Александрович; Парфомук Сергей Иванович. Моделирование траектории колебаний уровня озера НарочьAs a result of the conducted investigations of the level fluctuations in Lake Naroch the initial data are divided into 3 components: a polynomial regression that makes it possible to find out an independent on time Law of trajectory, a periodic component of sinusoidal type and a residual sequence of independent random quantities. Modeling of the trajectory fluctuations is based on the deterministic part, consisting of the regression of the 8th order and periodic component, and also the random part, consisting of independent equally distributed quantities. Using this model it can be modeled the trajectory of the level fluctuations in Lake Naroch. The modeled trajectory by 200 years long demonstrated the probability of exceeding of maximum annual level, equal 1 per cent

Assessment of changes in the Viliya River runoff in the territory of Belarus

Волчек Александр Александрович; Парфомук Сергей Иванович. Оценка изменений стока реки Вилия на территории. БеларусиThe research results of runoff changes in the River Viliya at 3 stations (Steshitsy Village, Vileyka Town and Mihalishki village) during the period 1946–2014 for the average annual, maximum, minimum summer-autumn and winter runoff are presented. It has been concluded that heterogeneity in the time series of the river runoff is caused by natural-climatic and anthropogenic factors. At Mihalishki Village the average annual runoff is about 59.7 m3 s–1, the maximum 1570 m3 s–1, minimum summer–autumn is 22.0 m3 s–1, the minimum winter runoff is 17.3 m3 s–1, and the environmental runoff is 21.1 m3 s–1. A forecast of runoff changes for the River Viliya, depending on forecasted climate change using the “Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections” was made on the basis of four scenarios RCP8.5, RCP6.0, RCP4.5, RCP2.6. The results of research indicate that significant changes in runoff will not occur as the forecasted climatic parameters did not change significantly. A forecasted decrease in spring runoff was investigated, thus reducing the minimum runoff is not essential. In the event of possible low water periods the Vileyka reservoir resources, involving the Olkhovskoye and the Snigyanskoye water reservoirs, can be used for compensation measures, which may be considered as the most reliable backup source of industrial water supply for the Belarusian Nuclear Power Plant

Assessment of changes in the Viliya River runoff in the territory of Belarus

The research results of runoff changes in the River Viliya at 3 stations (Steshitsy Village, Vileyka Town and Mihalishki village) during the period 1946–2014 for the average annual, maximum, minimum summer-autumn and winter runoff are presented. It has been concluded that heterogeneity in the time series of the river runoff is caused by natural-climatic and anthropogenic factors. At Mihalishki Village the average annual runoff is about 59.7 m3 s–1, the maximum 1570 m3 s–1, minimum summer–autumn is 22.0 m3 s–1, the minimum winter runoff is 17.3 m3 s–1, and the environmental runoff is 21.1 m3 s–1. A forecast of runoff changes for the River Viliya, depending on forecasted climate change using the “Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections” was made on the basis of four scenarios RCP8.5, RCP6.0, RCP4.5, RCP2.6. The results of research indicate that significant changes in runoff will not occur as the forecasted climatic parameters did not change significantly. A forecasted decrease in spring runoff was investigated, thus reducing the minimum runoff is not essential. In the event of possible low water periods the Vileyka reservoir resources, involving the Olkhovskoye and the Snigyanskoye water reservoirs, can be used for compensation measures, which may be considered as the most reliable backup source of industrial water supply for the Belarusian Nuclear Power Plant

Exogenous shore processes in water reservoirs of Belarus

The article presents the results of observations and research on the dynamics of exogenous erosion processes on the shores of lowland reservoirs in Belarus. Features and regularities of the dynamics of development of exogenous shores subject to abrasion-processing and an assessment of planned and profile stability of coastal slopes on the basis of proposed criteria are presented. The relationship between exogenous processes and accumulation processes was determined, the approaches and criteria for determining the stability of reservoir shores based on the hydrological regime of reservoirs and ground conditions were developed

Exogenous shore processes in water reservoirs of Belarus

Виктор Евгеньевич Левкевич, Иван Кирвель, Сергей Иванович Парфомук. Экзогенные береговые процессы в водоемах БеларусиThe article presents the results of observations and research on the dynamics of exogenous erosion processes on the shores of lowland reservoirs in Belarus. Features and regularities of the dynamics of development of exogenous shores subject to abrasion-processing and an assessment of planned and profile stability of coastal slopes on the basis of proposed criteria are presented. The relationship between exogenous processes and accumulation processes was determined, the approaches and criteria for determining the stability of reservoir shores based on the hydrological regime of reservoirs and ground conditions were developed

Exogenous shore processes in water reservoirs of Belarus

Виктор Евгеньевич Левкевич, Иван Кирвель, Сергей Иванович Парфомук. Экзогенные береговые процессы в водоемах БеларусиThe article presents the results of observations and research on the dynamics of exogenous erosion processes on the shores of lowland reservoirs in Belarus. Features and regularities of the dynamics of development of exogenous shores subject to abrasion-processing and an assessment of planned and profile stability of coastal slopes on the basis of proposed criteria are presented. The relationship between exogenous processes and accumulation processes was determined, the approaches and criteria for determining the stability of reservoir shores based on the hydrological regime of reservoirs and ground conditions were developed

Spectral–time analysis of cycle fluctuations in lake water levels in Belarus and Poland

Александр А. Волчек, Иван Кирвель, Адам Хоински, Сергей И. Парфомук, Павел Кирвель, С. Сидак. Спектрально-временной анализ циклических колебаний уровня воды в озерах Беларуси и ПольшиOn the basis of the mean volume of annual water levels of 25 lakes (9 Belarusian and 16 Polish) over a period of 55 years (1956-2010) spectral time analysis of water fluctuations has been executed. The choice of the lakes was based on two factors, i.e. the continuous period of observation and insignificant anthropogenic influence. The complex analysis of water level fluctuation cycles has shown that for Belarus the cycles observed most often were 3, 5 and 10-year cycles. Polish lakes also have three cycles, but in the majority of them they amount to 5 and 10-years. It can be assumed that this is impacted by the continental climate growing to the east. Most probably it is one of the key factors defining the diversity of water fluctuations in all the analyzed lakes

Spectral–time analysis of cycle fluctuations in lake water levels in Belarus and Poland

Александр А. Волчек, Иван Кирвель, Адам Хоински, Сергей И. Парфомук, Павел Кирвель, С. Сидак. Спектрально-временной анализ циклических колебаний уровня воды в озерах Беларуси и ПольшиOn the basis of the mean volume of annual water levels of 25 lakes (9 Belarusian and 16 Polish) over a period of 55 years (1956-2010) spectral time analysis of water fluctuations has been executed. The choice of the lakes was based on two factors, i.e. the continuous period of observation and insignificant anthropogenic influence. The complex analysis of water level fluctuation cycles has shown that for Belarus the cycles observed most often were 3, 5 and 10-year cycles. Polish lakes also have three cycles, but in the majority of them they amount to 5 and 10-years. It can be assumed that this is impacted by the continental climate growing to the east. Most probably it is one of the key factors defining the diversity of water fluctuations in all the analyzed lakes

Spectral–time analysis of cycle fluctuations in lake water levels in Belarus and Poland

On the basis of the mean volume of annual water levels of 25 lakes (9 Belarusian and 16 Polish) over a period of 55 years (1956-2010) spectral time analysis of water fluctuations has been executed. The choice of the lakes was based on two factors, i.e. the continuous period of observation and insignificant anthropogenic influence. The complex analysis of water level fluctuation cycles has shown that for Belarus the cycles observed most often were 3, 5 and 10-year cycles. Polish lakes also have three cycles, but in the majority of them they amount to 5 and 10-years. It can be assumed that this is impacted by the continental climate growing to the east. Most probably it is one of the key factors defining the diversity of water fluctuations in all the analyzed lakes