Energy policy and oil prices : system dynamics approach to modeling oil market

Version of RecordA version of this paper was presented in the 2nd Annual International Conference on Global Commerce, Las Vegas, NV during October 22-24, 2009.The pattern of global oil demand, real oil price, and world economy in the future is studied through system dynamics modeling. Based on the simulation, the oil demand will drop and then gradually recover while the real oil price will be stable and then drop mimicking a sigmoid curve. The economy will continuously increase. If an economic stimulus policy is implemented, the oil demand is expected to have a shallower drop. Thus, the real oil price is likely to be an S-shaped curve with a higher value, and the economy is expected to grow faster as compared to the case when there is no stimulus policy.Samii, M., & Teekasap, P. (2010). Energy policy and oil prices: System dynamics approach to modeling oil market. Journal of Global Commerce Research 2(3): 1-7

System dynamics approach to the analysis of interaction of foreign direct investment and employment in Thailand

Author's OriginalThis paper was also presented at the Academy of International Business Northeast Annual Conference October 1-4, 2009, in New York City.This research studies the effect of FDI policy on the wages and employment in Thailand. A system dynamics model that simulates the interaction between labor market and foreign direct investment in Thailand is used. The results show that having an FDI policy results in higher FDI in the short term but lower FDI in the long term. The effect of the policy on unemployment in the short term is not significant but the unemployment ratio is higher than it would be without such policy in the long term. Regarding the salary, having an FDI policy results in having higher average salary in both the short-term and the long term.Samii, M., & Teekasap, P. (2010). System dynamics approach to the analysis of interaction of foreign direct investment and employment in Thailand. Academy of Taiwan Business Management Review, (6)1

Technology spillover and productivity growth under R&D consortia policy

This present research studies the effect of the R&D consortia policy on the productivity growth and technology spillover through FDI in the Southeast Asia region using a system dynamics approach Thailand, Malaysia, and Vietnam are selected as the representative countries in the Southeast Asia region. The R&D consortia policy has not been implemented in these three countries. However, the effect of the R&D consortia policy on the selected countries is examined through the Japanese case which successfully utilizes the R&D consortia policy. The study shows that Thailand, Malaysia, and Vietnam gain benefits from the R&D consortia policy by having higher productivity. Increase in the country's productivity also improves the average income of the population in that country. By having more income per person, the country can attract more FDI which in turn increases the technology spillover and productivity of the country. Through sensitivity analysis, the country can gain more benefits by shortening the policy implementation duration. However, these benefits are the short-term benefits instead of the long-term benefits. The negative reaction of foreign firms toward the implementation of the R&D consortia policy also shows insignificant effect on the productivity of the country and the GDP per capita although it lowers the level of FDI. The effect of the R&D consortia policy on the improvement of the productivity growth, country's economy, and foreign investment varies due to the economic situation and the risk of the country. The country with mature economy gains more productivity growth but acquires less additional FDI from the policy while the country with a rapidly growing economy receives less benefit in terms of country productivity but acquires more benefits in terms of FDI. The country which is perceived by foreign investors as a high risk country requires a longer period until the effect of the R&D consortia policy on the increase in FDI takes place. (Author abstract)Teekasap, P. (2010). Technology spillover and productivity growth under R&D consortia policy. Retrieved from http://academicarchive.snhu.eduDoctor of Business Administration (D.B.A.)International BusinessSchool of Busines

System dynamics modelling of health workforce planning to address future challenges of Thailand's Universal Health Coverage.

BACKGROUND: System dynamics (SD) modelling can inform policy decisions under Thailand's Universal Health Coverage. We report on this thinking approach to Thailand's strategic health workforce planning for the next 20 years (2018-2037). METHODS: A series of group model building (GMB) sessions involving 110 participants from multi-sectors of Thailand's health systems was conducted in 2017 and 2018. We facilitated policymakers, administrators, practitioners and other stakeholders to co-create a causal loop diagram (CLD) representing a shared understanding of why the health workforce's demands and supplies in Thailand were mismatched. A stock and flow diagram (SFD) was also co-created for testing the consequences of policy options by simulation modelling. RESULTS: The simulation modelling found hospital utilisation created a vicious cycle of constantly increasing demands for hospital care and a constant shortage of healthcare providers. Moreover, hospital care was not designed for effectively dealing with the future demands of ageing populations and prevalent chronic illness. Hence, shifting emphasis to professions that can provide primary care, intermediate care, long-term care, palliative care, and end-of-life care can be more effective. CONCLUSIONS: Our SD modelling confirmed that shifting the care models to address the changing health demands can be a high-leverage policy of health workforce planning, although very difficult to implement in the short term. of health workforce planning, although very difficult to implement in the short term

Can country continuously compete on cheap labor cost? A system dynamics approach to foreign direct investment policy analysis

Author's OriginalThis paper studies the interaction of FDI, wages and employment of workers under different policies in countries that use cheap labor cost strategies such as Thailand. The interactions are analyzed by using system dynamics modeling. The model simulation shows that FDI drives salaries up when the demand for workers reaches the limit of the working population. A higher salary, in turn, causes low labor cost seeking FDI to withdraw their investment. Government policies aimed to sustain cheap labor cost seeking FDI are examined. Policies to subsidize foreign operation such as providing tax breaks and reducing the time to set up a new firm can stimulate FDI in the short term but in the long term the foreign firms still withdraw their investments due to high salaries. An increase in the working population or a reduction in firm hiring process time, on the other hand, does not affect the volume of FDI. Thus, the country cannot rely on a low labor cost strategy on the long term.Samii, M., & Teekasap, P. (2010, June). Can country continuously compete on cheap labor cost? A system dynamics approach to FDI policy analysis. In proceedings from Academy of International Business (AIB) Conference 2010. Rio de Janero, Brazil

Central American Free Trade Agreement-Dominican Republic effects on foreign direct investment inflows, growth and distribution of the workforce in Costa Rica : a system dynamics approach

Author's OriginalAs regional trading arrangements have spread, enlarged and deepened over the last decades, the study of the relation between trade agreements and foreign direct investment still presents difficulties due to the multi-dimensional character of such relationship. This paper attempts to shed new light on how some of the Central American Free Trade (CAFTA) policies will impact FDI inflows on the manufacturing and agricultural sectors in Costa Rica. Specifically we look at how the growth and distribution of the workforce is affected by the treaty. The results show that the agreement provisions will have a positive effect on foreign direct investment. From these results it is possible to estimate that in the long run, the implementation of CAFTA has a higher probability of generating the intended benefits. System dynamics modelling is used in this paper.Frutos, D, Teekasap, P., & Samii, M. (2011). CAFTA-DR effects on FDI inflows, growth and distribution of the workforce in Costa Rica: A system dynamics approach. International Trade Journal (25)3. Retrieved from http://academicarchive.snhu.ed

Central American Free Trade Agreement-Dominican Republic effects on foreign direct investment inflows, growth and distribution of the workforce : a system dynamics approach

Author's OriginalAs regional trading arrangements have spread over the last decades, the study of the relation between trade agreements and foreign direct investment still presents difficulties due to the multi-dimensional character of such relationship. This paper presents a system dynamics model that attempts to shed new light on how some of the Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA-DR). Specifically we look at how the growth and distribution of the workforce in the non-agricultural (or industrial) and agricultural sector in six CAFTADR country members. The model results indicate that the provisions we considered tend to industrialize member countries as well as expand the agricultural sector in some countries in the long run. In addition, the model indicates that the treaty provisions drive up the GDP per capita for all member countries.Teekasap, P., Frutos, D., & Samii, M. (2010, June). CAFTA-DR effects on FDI inflows, growth and distribution of the workforce: a system dynamics approach. In proceedings from Academy of International Business (AIB) Conference 2010. Rio de Janero, Brazil

Forecasted Trends of the New COVID-19 Epidemic Due to the Omicron Variant in Thailand, 2022

Thailand is among many countries severely affected by COVID-19 since the beginning of the global pandemic. Thus, a deliberate planning of health care resource allocation against health care demand in light of the new SARS-CoV-2 variant, Omicron, is crucial. This study aims to forecast the trends in COVID-19 cases and deaths from the Omicron variant in Thailand. We used a compartmental susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model combined with a system dynamics model. We developed four scenarios with differing values of the reproduction number (R) and vaccination rates. In the most pessimistic scenario (R = 7.5 and base vaccination rate), the number of incident cases reached a peak of 49,523 (95% CI: 20,599 to 99,362) by day 73, and the peak daily deaths grew to 270 by day 50. The predicted cumulative cases and deaths at the end of the wave were approximately 3.7 million and 22,000, respectively. In the most optimistic assumption (R = 4.5 and speedy vaccination rate), the peak incident cases was about one third the cases in the pessimistic assumption (15,650, 95% CI: 12,688 to 17,603). In the coming months, Thailand may face a new wave of the COVID-19 epidemic due to the Omicron variant. The case toll due to the Omicron wave is likely to outnumber the earlier Delta wave, but the death toll is proportionately lower. Vaccination campaigns for the booster dose should be expedited to prevent severe illnesses and deaths in the population

Understanding the Problem of Access to Public Health Insurance Schemes among Cross-Border Migrants in Thailand through Systems Thinking

Thailand has become a popular destination for international migrant workers, particularly from Cambodia, Lao PDR, and Myanmar. However, only a fraction of these migrant workers were insured by public health insurance. The objective of this study was to apply systems thinking to explore contextual factors affecting access to public health insurance among cross-border migrants in Thailand. A group model building approach was applied. Participants (n = 20) were encouraged to share ideas about underlying drivers and barriers of migrants’ access to health insurance. The causal loop diagram and stock and flow diagram were synthesised to identify the dynamics of access to migrant health insurance. Results showed that nationality verification is an important mechanism to deal with the precarious citizenship status of undocumented migrants. However, some migrants are still left uninsured. The likely explanations are the semi-voluntary nature of the Health Insurance Card Scheme, administrative delay of the enrollment process, and resistance of some employers to hiring migrants. As a result, findings suggest that effective communication is required to raise acceptance towards insurance among migrants and their employers. A participatory public policy process is needed to create a good balance of migrant policies among diverse authorities