Estimation of Burden of Cystic Echinococcosis in Iran Using Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) in 2018

Background: Human hydatidosis as a public concern has increased in a number of countries that have reduced control programs for the disease due to lack of resources or policies. We aimed to estimate Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) for human hydatidosis in Iran in 2018. Methods: Data were collected from the Center of Communicable Diseases Control, Ministry of Health &Medical Education, Tehran, Iran in 2018. To calculate DALYs, years of life lost due to premature death (YLL) with years of life with disability (YLD) were calculated according to the formula as DALY = YLL + YLD. The standard life expectancy lost method (SEYLL) was used to calculate the years lost due to premature death. Results: DALYs for human hydatidosis was calculated as 1210.12 years (YLD equals to 177.12 and YLL equals to 1033) in Iran for the year 2018. It was estimated to be 700.2 years for men and 509.8 years for women. DALYs in men were significantly different from women (P= 0.001) so DALYs were more in men than women were. YLD was calculated at 78.228 years in men and 98.892 years in women and in both men and women at 177.12 years. YLD was significantly different in women compared to men (P=0.001), so YLD in women was more than in men. Conclusion: We reached considerable indices for hydatidosis in our study. Therefore, disease prevention and control programs in Iran seem necessary by the policy makers. Keywords: Hydatidosis; Burden; Disability-adjusted life years; Human; Ira

The Impacts of Climate Change on Maximum Daily Discharge in the Payab Jamash Watershed, Iran

One of the most crucial consequences of climate change involves the alteration of the hydrologic cycle and river flow regime of watersheds. This study was an endeavor to investigate the contributions of climate change to maximum daily discharge (MDD). To this end, the MDD simulation was carried out through implementing the IHACRES precipitation-runoff model in the Payyab Jamash watershed for the 21st century (2016-2100). Subsequently, the observed precipitation and temperature data of the weather stations (1980-2011) as well as 4 multi-model outputs of Global Climate Models (GCMs) under the maximum and minimum Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (2016-2100) were utilized. In order to downscale the output of GCMs, Bias Correction (BC) statistical method was applied. The projections for the 21st century indicated a reduction in Maximum Daily Precipitation (MDP) in comparison with the historic period in the study area. The average projected MDP for the future period was 9 mm/day and 5 mm/ day under 2.6 and 8.5 RCPs (4.6% and 2.6% decrease compared with the historical period), respectively. Moreover, the temperature increased in Jamash Watershed based on 2.6 and 8.5 RCPs by 1∘C and 2∘C(3.7% and 7.4% increase compared with the historical period), respectively. The findings of flow simulation for the future period indicated a decrease in MDD due to the diminished MDP in the study area. The amount of this decrease under RCP8.5 was not remarkable (0.75 m3/s), whereas its value for RCP2.6 was calculated as 40m3/s (respectively, 0.11% and 5.88% decrease compared with the historical period)