Prospects for IT-Enabled Services Under a Indo-US FTA

ITES/BPO services is an important and growing component of Indias trade in services with the US. While the Indian government has implemented several measures to support the growth of this sector, Indian companies face various barriers in the US market such as anti-outsourcing regulations, restrictive visa/work permit regime and concerns relating to protection of sensitive data. Multilateral negotiations would have been the best route to address many of these barriers, but with the recent suspension of the Doha Round of talks, it has become important for countries to evaluate alternative routes such as bilateral Free Trade Agreements. In fact, after the suspension of the multilateral negotiations, both India and the US have refocused on bilateral agreements. In this context, this study discusses the current and potential trade between India and the US in ITES/BPO services, identifies barriers to trade and explores how an FTA can enhance bilateral trade in this sector. The study shows that the US-FTAs have achieved a higher level of liberalization than in the WTO. It suggests various negotiating strategies for India such as a negative list approach, signing mutual recognition agreements in key professional services, asking for a H1B1 type of visa, pushing for removal of domestic regulation-related barriers, among others which would enhance market access for Indian companies in the US. It also points out that Indo-US collaborations for data protection, skill development and raising awareness of the advantages of outsourcing in the US would be mutually beneficial. The study discusses regulatory and other reforms which will improve the productivity, efficiency and global competitiveness of this sector and enable the country to gain from the FTA.Indo-US FTA, GATS, bilateral agreements, Business Process Outsourcing, IT-enabled services

Indo-U.S. FTA: Prospects for Audiovisual Services

Many WTO (World Trade Organization) member countries, including India, are defensive about opening up of the audiovisual sector in the Doha Round due to reasons of cultural sensitivity. On the other hand, the United States is pushing for liberalizing trade in this sector - both in the WTO and in its bilateral FTAs (Free Trade Agreements). With the slow progress of the Doha Round, India and the United States are exploring the possibilities of entering into FTAs with like-minded trading partners. In this context, the present paper discusses the prospects of liberalizing audiovisual services under a possible Indo-U.S. FTA. The study found that India and the United States have significant trade complementarities in this sector which can be further enhanced under an FTA. It identifies areas such as co-production of films, digital content creation and broadband infrastructure in which companies from India and the United States can enter into mutually beneficial collaborations. It argues that India should enter into a media cooperation agreement with the U.S. to facilitate the inflow of technical know, finance and best management practices. It discusses regulatory and other reforms which would not only improve the productivity and global competitiveness of the Indian audiovisual sector but also enable it to gain from the FTA.Indo-U.S. FTA, GATS, bilateral agreements, audiovisual, services

Indo-U.S. FTA - Prospects for Audiovisual Services

Many WTO (World Trade Organization) member countries, including India, are defensive about opening up of the audiovisual sector in the Doha Round due to reasons of cultural sensitivity. On the other hand, the United States is pushing for liberalizing trade in this sector both in the WTO and in its bilateral FTAs (Free Trade Agreements). With the slow progress of the Doha Round, India and the United States are exploring the possibilities of entering into FTAs with like-minded trading partners. In this context, the present paper discusses the prospects of liberalizing audiovisual services under a possible Indo-U.S. FTA. The study found that India and the United States have significant trade complementarities in this sector which can be further enhanced under an FTA. It identifies areas such as co-production of films, digital content creation and broadband infrastructure in which companies from India and the United States can enter into mutually beneficial collaborations. It argues that India should enter into a media cooperation agreement with the U.S. to facilitate the inflow of technical know, finance and best management practices. It discusses regulatory and other reforms which would not only improve the productivity and global competitiveness of the Indian audiovisual sector but also enable it to gain from the FTA.Indo-U.S. FTA, GATS, bilateral agreements, audiovisual, Services

Forecasting Hourly Prices in Indian Spot Electricity Market

In this paper, an attempt has been made to forecast the hourly electricity spot prices in India as this is very important for the bidders in the energy exchange for participating in the day-ahead market. Forecasting high frequency data is a challenging task. In forecasting, different variants of ARMA, ARMA-GARCH models are applied in different contexts, but no unequivocal dominance of a particular model exists. In this paper, based on hourly data for several years for all the regions in India, several variants of ARMAX models are estimated, by combining static and dynamic forecasts. Along with ARMA, intra-day, inter-day and hourly variations in prices as well as seasonalities on weekdays, holidays and festive days are incorporated. ARMAX models in this context performed quite well for forecasting horizons of hourly prices of upto 5 days. Interestingly, the ARMAX models provide reasonably good forecasts for day-ahead-market and the simple structure can be quite easily implemented. Such forecasts are not only essential for the players in the spot market, but also provides insights for policymakers as it reveals several aspects of Indian electricity market including the different dimensions of seasonality in demand

Estimation of non-health gross domestic product (NHGDP) loss due to COVID-19 deaths in West Bengal, India

OBJECTIVES: The state of West Bengal witnessed a significant surge of COVID-19 in all three waves. However, there is a gap in understanding the economic loss associated with COVID-19. This study estimates future non-health gross domestic product (NHGDP) losses associated with COVID-19 deaths in West Bengal, India. SETTING: Various open domains were used to gather data on COVID-19 deaths in West Bengal and the aforementioned estimates. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The NHGDP losses were evaluated using the cost-of-illness approach. Future NHGDP losses were discounted at 3%. Excess death estimates by the WHO and Global Burden of Disease (GBD) were used. Sensitivity analysis was carried out by varying discount rates and average age of death (AAD). RESULTS: 21 532 deaths in West Bengal from 17 March 2020 to 31 December 2022 decreased the future NHGDP by $0.92 billion. Nearly 90$55,171; however, the average loss/death declined with rise in age. Based on the GBD and WHO excess death estimates, the NHGDP loss increased to $9.38 billion and$9.42 billion, respectively. When the lower age interval is considered as AAD, the NHGDP loss increased to $1.3 billion. At 5$0.767 billion and $0.549 billion, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Results from the study suggest that COVID-19 contributed to a major economic loss in West Bengal. The mortality and morbidity caused by COVID-19, the substantial economic costs at individual and population levels in West Bengal, and probably across India and other countries, is another economic argument for better infection control strategies across the globe to minimise the impact of COVID-19

Novel Likelihood Ratio Tests for Screening Gene‐Gene and Gene‐Environment Interactions With Unbalanced Repeated‐Measures Data

There has been extensive literature on modeling gene‐gene interaction (GGI) and gene‐environment interaction (GEI) in case‐control studies with limited literature on statistical methods for GGI and GEI in longitudinal cohort studies. We borrow ideas from the classical two‐way analysis of variance literature to address the issue of robust modeling of interactions in repeated‐measures studies. While classical interaction models proposed by Tukey and Mandel have interaction structures as a function of main effects, a newer class of models, additive main effects and multiplicative interaction (AMMI) models, do not have similar restrictive assumptions on the interaction structure. AMMI entails a singular value decomposition of the cell residual matrix after fitting the additive main effects and has been shown to perform well across various interaction structures. We consider these models for testing GGI and GEI from two perspectives: likelihood ratio test based on cell means and a regression‐based approach using individual observations. Simulation results indicate that both approaches for AMMI models lead to valid tests in terms of maintaining the type I error rate, with the regression approach having better power properties. The performance of these models was evaluated across different interaction structures and 12 common epistasis patterns. In summary, AMMI model is robust with respect to misspecified interaction structure and is a useful screening tool for interaction even in the absence of main effects. We use the proposed methods to examine the interplay between the hemochromatosis gene and cumulative lead exposure on pulse pressure in the Normative Aging Study.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/99643/1/gepi21744-sup-0001-si.pdfhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/99643/2/gepi21744.pd

Finger Dermatoglyphic Variations in Rengma Nagas of Nagaland India

The Rengma Nagas are one of the major Mongoloid tribal populations in the North-Eastern state of Nagaland in India. Population variation and sexual dimorphism in respect of finger dermatoglyphic characteristics in 207 adult individuals (104 males and 103 females) are reported in this present context. Frequency distribution of finger pattern types in different digits (both left and right sides combined) showed that whorls were the most prevalent patterns among both males (52.19%) and females (55.69%), followed by loops (47.70% in males and 42.81% in females). Significant sex differences in Dankmeijer Index (t=1.47; p<0.0001) and finger wise variations of total finger ridge count (TFRC) and absolute finger ridge count (AFRC) in both the sexes were recorded. However, in cases of the frequencies of finger dermatoglyphic pattern types, Pattern Intensity Index in fingers, TFRC and AFRC no significant sex differences were observed