Empirical Evidence on the Use of Credit Scoring for Predicting Insurance Losses with Psycho-social and Biochemical Explanations

An important development in personal lines of insurance in the United States is the use of credit history data for insurance risk classification to predict losses. This research presents the results of collaboration with industry conducted by a university at the request of its state legislature. The purpose was to see the viability and validity of the use of credit scoring to predict insurance losses given its controversial nature and criticism as redundant of other predictive variables currently used. Working with industry and government, this study analyzed more than 175,000 policyholders’ information for the relationship between credit score and claims. Credit scores were significantly related to incurred losses, evidencing both statistical and practical significance. We investigate whether the revealed relationship between credit score and incurred losses was explainable by overlap with existing underwriting variables or whether the credit score adds new information about losses not contained in existing underwriting variables. The results show that credit scores contain significant information not already incorporated into other traditional rating variables (e.g., age, sex, driving history). We discuss how sensation seeking and self-control theory provide a partial explanation of why credit scoring works (the psycho-social perspective). This article also presents an overview of biological and chemical correlates of risk taking that helps explain why knowing risk-taking behavior in one realm (e.g., risky financial behavior and poor credit history) transits to predicting risk-taking behavior in other realms (e.g., automobile insurance incurred losses). Additional research is needed to advance new nontraditional loss prediction variables from social media consumer information to using information provided by technological advances. The evolving and dynamic nature of the insurance marketplace makes it imperative that professionals continue to evolve predictive variables and for academics to assist with understanding the whys of the relationships through theory development.IC2 Institut

The Situated Assessment Method (SAM2): establishing individual differences in habitual behavior

From the perspectives of grounded, situated, and embodied cognition, we have developed a new approach for assessing individual differences. Because this approach is grounded in two dimensions of situatedness—situational experience and the Situated Action Cycle—we refer to it as the Situated Assessment Method (SAM2). Rather than abstracting over situations during assessment of a construct (as in traditional assessment instruments), SAM2 assesses a construct in situations where it occurs, simultaneously measuring factors from the Situated Action Cycle known to influence it. To demonstrate this framework, we developed the SAM2 Habitual Behavior Instrument (SAM2 HBI). Across three studies with a total of 442 participants, the SAM2 HBI produced a robust and replicable pattern of results at both the group and individual levels. Trait-level measures of habitual behavior exhibited large reliable individual differences in the regularity of performing positive versus negative habits. Situational assessments established large effects of situations and large situation by individual interactions. Several sources of evidence demonstrated construct and content validity for SAM2 measures of habitual behavior. At both the group and individual levels, these measures were associated with factors from the Situated Action Cycle known to influence habitual behavior in the literature (consistency, automaticity, immediate reward, long-term reward). Regressions explained approximately 65% of the variance at the group level and a median of approximately 75% at the individual level. SAM2 measures further exhibited well-established interactions with personality measures for self-control and neuroticism. Cognitive-affective processes from the Situated Action Cycle explained nearly all the variance in these interactions. Finally, a composite measure of habitualness established habitual behaviors at both the group and individual levels. Additionally, a composite measure of reward was positively related to the composite measure of habitualness, increasing with self-control and decreasing with neuroticism

Goal Priming in Dieters: Recent Insights and Applications

What are the psychological mechanisms that make dieting so challenging in our food-rich living environment? Social psychological research on goal priming provides a useful framework for answering this question, as well as implications for how to enhance dieting success. This review presents and discusses recent research which shows that attractive food cues prime the hedonic eating goal in dieters, and thus facilitate overeating. However, external cues priming the goal of weight control can be used to offset these effects and thus to facilitate dieting success, as is demonstrated in both field and laboratory experiments. In addition, recent strategies to prevent hedonic effects of attractive food, such as mindful attention, can facilitate self-regulation. These recent advances in our understanding of dieting behavior have theoretical and practical implications for how successful dieting can be facilitated, both by means of individual strategies, as well as by environmental changes

On staying grounded and avoiding Quixotic dead ends

The 15 articles in this special issue on The Representation of Concepts illustrate the rich variety of theoretical positions and supporting research that characterize the area. Although much agreement exists among contributors, much disagreement exists as well, especially about the roles of grounding and abstraction in conceptual processing. I first review theoretical approaches raised in these articles that I believe are Quixotic dead ends, namely, approaches that are principled and inspired but likely to fail. In the process, I review various theories of amodal symbols, their distortions of grounded theories, and fallacies in the evidence used to support them. Incorporating further contributions across articles, I then sketch a theoretical approach that I believe is likely to be successful, which includes grounding, abstraction, flexibility, explaining classic conceptual phenomena, and making contact with real-world situations. This account further proposes that (1) a key element of grounding is neural reuse, (2) abstraction takes the forms of multimodal compression, distilled abstraction, and distributed linguistic representation (but not amodal symbols), and (3) flexible context-dependent representations are a hallmark of conceptual processing

Transcriptomic profiling of SARS-CoV-2 infected human cell lines identifies HSP90 as target for COVID-19 therapy

Detailed knowledge of the molecular biology of SARS-CoV-2 infection is crucial for understanding of viral replication, host responses and disease progression. Here, we report gene expression profiles of three SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 infected human cell lines. SARS-CoV-2 elicited an approximately two-fold higher stimulation of the innate immune response compared to SARS-CoV in the human epithelial cell line Calu-3, including induction of miRNA-155. Single-cell RNA sequencing of infected cells showed that genes induced by virus infections were broadly upregulated, whereas interferon beta/lambda genes an pro-inflammatory cytokines such as IL-6 were expressed only in small subsets of infected cells. Temporal analysis suggested that transcriptional activities of interferon regulatory factors precede those of nuclear factor κB. Lastly, we identified heat shock protein 90 (HSP90) as a protein relevant for the infection. Inhibition of the HSP90 activity resulted in a reduction of viral replication and pro-inflammatory cytokine expression in primary human airway epithelial cells

Priming food intake with weight control cues: systematic review with a meta-analysis

Background A growing number of studies suggest that exposure to cues which are associated with weight control can prime or prompt controlled food intake in tempting food environments. However, findings are mixed and understanding which types of cues and for whom such cues may be most effective is needed to inform subsequent research and societal applications. A systematic review and meta-analysis were conducted to evaluate the effects of exposure to weight control cues compared with control cues on food intake. Methods PsycINFO, Medline, Embase and Web of Science were searched using key terms. Hedge’s g was used to calculate effect sizes based on mean food intake, standard deviations and sample sizes extracted from relevant publications and, a random effects model was used for the meta-analysis. Results Twenty-five articles consisting of 26 studies were eligible. Data from 25 studies (31 effect sizes) were available for the meta-analysis. Overall, weight control cues reduced food intake, albeit to a trivial effect (ES: -0.149, 95% CI: -0.271 to − 0.027). Subgroup analyses when studies which induced negative affect were removed showed that for individuals with strong weight control goals the effect was small-to-moderate (ES: -0.440, 95% CI: -0.718 to − 0.163), whereas for individuals with weak weight control goals this effect was trivial and non-significant (ES: 0.014, 95% CI: -0.249 to 0.278). Cue type and level of engagement did not significantly moderate the effect; however, specific cues (low-calorie foods and thin models) and attended engagement yielded significant effects. Caution is needed interpreting these findings as most studies were rated with high risk of bias and a number of studies could not be included in the subgroup analyses. Conclusions Based on the data available, weight control cues reduce food intake in individuals with strong weight control goals. Further research is needed to explore longer term effects of cue exposure and confirm underlying mechanisms. PROSPERO registry#CRD42016052396

SARS-CoV-2-mediated dysregulation of metabolism and autophagy uncovers host-targeting antivirals

Viruses manipulate cellular metabolism and macromolecule recycling processes like autophagy. Dysregulated metabolism might lead to excessive inflammatory and autoimmune responses as observed in severe and long COVID-19 patients. Here we show that SARS-CoV-2 modulates cellular metabolism and reduces autophagy. Accordingly, compound-driven induction of autophagy limits SARS-CoV-2 propagation. In detail, SARS-CoV-2-infected cells show accumulation of key metabolites, activation of autophagy inhibitors (AKT1, SKP2) and reduction of proteins responsible for autophagy initiation (AMPK, TSC2, ULK1), membrane nucleation, and phagophore formation (BECN1, VPS34, ATG14), as well as autophagosome-lysosome fusion (BECN1, ATG14 oligomers). Consequently, phagophore-incorporated autophagy markers LC3B-II and P62 accumulate, which we confirm in a hamster model and lung samples of COVID-19 patients. Single-nucleus and single-cell sequencing of patient-derived lung and mucosal samples show differential transcriptional regulation of autophagy and immune genes depending on cell type, disease duration, and SARS-CoV-2 replication levels. Targeting of autophagic pathways by exogenous administration of the polyamines spermidine and spermine, the selective AKT1 inhibitor MK-2206, and the BECN1-stabilizing anthelmintic drug niclosamide inhibit SARS-CoV-2 propagation in vitro with IC(50) values of 136.7, 7.67, 0.11, and 0.13 μM, respectively. Autophagy-inducing compounds reduce SARS-CoV-2 propagation in primary human lung cells and intestinal organoids emphasizing their potential as treatment options against COVID-19

Mindfulness at Work: Positive Affect, Hope, and Optimism Mediate the Relationship Between Dispositional Mindfulness, Work Engagement, and Well-Being

Mindfulness has been described as a state of awareness characterized by refined attentional skills and a non-evaluative attitude toward internal and external events. Recently it has been suggested that higher levels of mindfulness may be beneficial in the workplace and first programs aiming to increase mindful awareness in occupational settings have been introduced. The current study underpins these developments with empirical evidence regarding the involved psychological processes, by investigating the relationship between dispositional mindfulness, work engagement and well-being in 299 adults in fulltime employment. As hypothesized, the results confirm that self-reported mindfulness predicts work engagement and general well-being. Furthermore, these relationships are mediated by positive job-related affect and psychological capital (hope, optimism, resiliency, and self-efficacy). Investigating mindfulness and psychological capital as multi-faceted concepts by means of structural equation modeling yielded a more precise picture. The ability to step back from automatic, habitual reactions to distress turned out to be the mindfulness facet most central for predicting work engagement and well-being. Furthermore, mindfulness exerts its positive effect on work engagement by increasing positive affect, hope, and optimism, which on their own and in combination enhance work engagement (full mediation). Well-being, on the other hand, is directly influenced by mindfulness, which exerts additional indirect influence via positive affect, hope and optimism (partial mediation). Although exploratory in nature, the results identify non-reactivity and non-judging as important mindfulness skills in the workplace