A market microstructure analysis of foreign exchange intervention

We formulate a market microstructure model of exchange determination we employ to investigate the impact of foreign exchange intervention on exchange rates and on foreign exchange (FX) market conditions. With our formulation we show i) how foreign exchange intervention influences exchange rates via both a portfolio-balance and a signalling channel and ii) derive a series of testable implications which are coherent with a large body of empirical research. Our investigation also proposes some normative recommendations, as we show i) that in extreme circumstances large scale foreign exchange intervention can have destabilizing effects for the functioning of FX markets and ii) that the route chosen for the implementation of official intervention has important implications for its impact on exchange rates and on market conditions. JEL Classification: D82, G14, G15Exchange Rate Dynamics, Foreign Exchange Micro Structure, Official Intervention, order flow

An empirical study of liquidity and information effects of order flow on exchange rates

We propose a simple structural model of exchange rate determination which draws from the analytical framework recently proposed by Bacchetta and van Wincoop (2003) and allows us to disentangle the liquidity and information effects of order flow on exchange rates. We estimate this model employing an innovative transaction data-set that covers all direct foreign exchange transactions completed in the USD/EUR market via EBS and Reuters between August 2000 and January 2001. Our results indicate that the strong contemporaneous correlation between order flow and exchange rates is mostly due to liquidity effects. This result also appears to carry through to the four FX intervention events that appear in our sample. JEL Classification: D82, G14, G15Exchange Rate Dynamics, Foreign Exchange Micro Structure, order flow

Inflation and Sovereign Default

Recent research has highlighted the role that the government budget constraint plays in determining the consumer price level. According to the fiscal approach to price determination, prices adjust so that the discounted value of future real government primary surpluses equals the current real value of public debt. An important implication is that the probability of a crisis involving default on public debt may directly affect consumer prices. This paper examines the interaction of prices and sovereign insolvency crises using simple, continuous-time models of the government budget constraint. Copyright 2001, International Monetary Fund

A naturally light dilaton

Goldstone's theorem does not apply straightforwardly to the case of spontaneously broken scale invariance. We elucidate under what conditions a light scalar degree of freedom, identifiable with the dilaton, can naturally arise. Our construction can be considered an explicit dynamical solution to the cosmological constant problem in the scalar version of gravity.Comment: v2: published versio

Measuring the deterrence properties of competition policy: the Competition Policy Indexes

The aim of this paper is to describe in detail a set of newly developed indicators of the quality of competition policy, Competition Policy Indexes, or CPIs. The CPIs measure the deterrence properties of a competition policy in a jurisdiction, where for competition policy we mean the antitrust legislation, including the merger control provisions, and its enforcement. The CPIs incorporate data on how the key features of a competition policy regime score against a benchmark of generally-agreed best practices and summarise them so as to allow cross-country and cross-time comparisons. The CPIs have been calculated for a sample of 13 OECD jurisdictions over the period 1995-2005

Competition Policy and Productivity Growth: An Empirical Assessment

This paper empirically investigates the effectiveness of competition policy by estimating its impact on Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth for 22 industries in 12 OECD countries over the period 1995-2005. We ?nd a robust positive and signi?cant effect of competition policy asmeasured by newly created indexes. We provide several arguments and results based on instrumental variables estimators as well as non-linearities to support the claim that the established link can be interpreted in a causal way. At a disaggregated level, the effect on TFP growth is particularly strong for speci?c aspects of competition policy related to its institutional setup and antitrust activities (rather than merger control). The effect is strengthened by good legal systems, suggesting complementarities between competition policy and the ef?ciency of law enforcement institutions

Deterrence in Competition Law

This paper provides a comprehensive discussion of the deterrence properties of a competition policy regime. On the basis of the economic theory of law enforcement we identify several factors that are likely to affect its degree of deterrence: 1) sanctions and damages; 2) financial and human resources; 3) powers during the investigation; 4) quality of the law; 5) independence; and 6) separation of power. We then discuss how to measure deterrence. We review the literature that use surveys to solicit direct information on changes in the behavior of firms due to the threats posed by the enforcement of antitrust rules, and the literature based on the analysis of hard data. We finally argue that the most challenging task, both theoretically and empirically, is how to distinguish between “good” deterrence and “bad” deterrence

Deterrence in Competition Law

This paper provides a comprehensive discussion of the deterrence properties of a competition policy regime. On the basis of the economic theory of law enforcement we identify several factors that are likely to affect its degree of deterrence: 1) sanctions and damages; 2) financial and human resources; 3) powers during the investigation; 4) quality of the law; 5) independence; and 6) separation of power. We then discuss how to measure deterrence. We review the literature that use surveys to solicit direct information on changes in the behavior of firms due to the threats posed by the enforcement of antitrust rules, and the literature based on the analysis of hard data. We finally argue that the most challenging task, both theoretically and empirically, is how to distinguish between “good†deterrence and “bad†deterrence.Competition Policy; Law Enforcement; Deterrence

Deterrence in Competition Law

This paper provides a comprehensive discussion of the deterrence properties of a competition policy regime. On the basis of the economic theory of law enforcement we identify several factors that are likely to affect its degree of deterrence: 1) sanctions and damages; 2) financial and human resources; 3) powers during the investigation; 4) quality of the law; 5) independence and 6) separation of power. We then discuss how to measure deterrence. We review the literature that uses surveys to solicit direct information on changes in the behavior of firms due to the threats posed by the enforcement of antitrust rules, and the literature based on the analysis of hard data. We finally argue that the most challenging task, both theoretically and empirically, is how to distinguish between “good” deterrence and “bad” deterrence. ZUSAMMENFASSUNG - (Abschreckung im Wettbewerbsrecht) Dieser Beitrag bietet eine umfassende Diskussion über die Abschreckungseigenschaften eines wettbewerbspolitischen Systems. Auf der Grundlage der ökonomischen Theorie der Rechtsdurchsetzung werden mehrere Faktoren identifizier, welche den Abschreckungsgrad des Systems am ehesten beeinflussen können. Diese sind: 1) Sanktionen und Schadensersatzforderungen, 2) finanzielle Ressourcen und Personal der Wettbewerbsbehörde, 3) die Befugnisse der wettbewerbspolitischen Autorität im Rahmen der Untersuchung, 4) die Qualität des Rechtsrahmens, 5) die Unabhängigkeit der Behörde und 6) die Gewaltenteilung. Anschließend wird diskutiert, wie man den Abschreckungsgrad eines wettbewerbspolitischen Systems empirisch messen kann. Zuerst wird die Literatur besprochen, die auf Befragungen beruht. Die Befragungen sollten Aufschluss darüber geben, wie sich das Unternehmensverhalten angesichts der Durchsetzung von wettbewerbspolitischen Maßnahmen ändert. Dem gegenüber wird die Literatur dargestellt, die "harte" Daten nutzt. Schließlich wird argumentiert, dass die anspruchsvollste Aufgabe sowohl theoretisch als auch empirisch darin bestehen wird, zwischen "guter" und "schlechter" Abschreckung durch Wettbewerbspolitik zu unterscheiden.Competition Policy, Law Enforcement, Deterrence