Development of a regional feature selection-based machine learning system (RFSML v1.0) for air pollution forecasting over China

With the explosive growth of atmospheric data, machine learning models have achieved great success in air pollution forecasting because of their higher computational efficiency than the traditional chemical transport models. However, in previous studies, new prediction algorithms have only been tested at stations or in a small region; a large-scale air quality forecasting model remains lacking to date. Huge dimensionality also means that redundant input data may lead to increased complexity and therefore the over-fitting of machine learning models. Feature selection is a key topic in machine learning development, but it has not yet been explored in atmosphere-related applications. In this work, a regional feature selection-based machine learning (RFSML) system was developed, which is capable of predicting air quality in the short term with high accuracy at the national scale. Ensemble-Shapley additive global importance analysis is combined with the RFSML system to extract significant regional features and eliminate redundant variables at an affordable computational expense. The significance of the regional features is also explained physically. Compared with a standard machine learning system fed with relative features, the RFSML system driven by the selected key features results in superior interpretability, less training time, and more accurate predictions. This study also provides insights into the difference in interpretability among machine learning models (i.e., random forest, gradient boosting, and multi-layer perceptron models).</p

Lentiviral Transgenic MicroRNA-Based shRNA Suppressed Mouse Cytochromosome P450 3A (CYP3A) Expression in a Dose-Dependent and Inheritable Manner

Cytochomosome P450 enzymes (CYP) are heme-containing monooxygenases responsible for oxidative metabolism of many exogenous and endogenous compounds including drugs. The species difference of CYP limits the extent to which data obtained from animals can be translated to humans in pharmacodynamics or pharmacokinetics studies. Transgenic expression of human CYP in animals lacking or with largely reduced endogenous CYP counterparts is recognized as an ideal strategy to correct CYP species difference. CYP3A is the most abundant CYP subfamily both in human and mammals. In this study, we designed a microRNA-based shRNA (miR-shRNA) simultaneously targeting four members of mouse CYP3A subfamily (CYP3A11, CYP3A16, CYP3A41 and CYP3A44), and transgenic mice expressing the designed miR-shRNA were generated by lentiviral transgenesis. Results showed that the CYP3A expression level in transgenic mice was markedly reduced compared to that in wild type or unrelated miR-shRNA transgenic mice, and was inversely correlated to the miR-shRNA expression level. The CYP3A expression levels in transgenic offspring of different generations were also remarkably lower compared to those of controls, and moreover the inhibition rate of CYP3A expression remained comparable over generations. The ratio of the targeted CYP3A transcriptional levels was comparable between knockdown and control mice of the same gender as detected by RT-PCR DGGE analysis. These data suggested that transgenic miR-shRNA suppressed CYP3A expression in a dose-dependent and inheritable manner, and transcriptional levels of the targeted CYP3As were suppressed to a similar extent. The observed knockdown efficacy was further confirmed by enzymatic activity analysis, and data showed that CYP3A activities in transgenic mice were markedly reduced compared to those in wild-type or unrelated miR-shRNA transgenic controls (1.11±0.71 vs 5.85±1.74, 5.9±2.4; P<0.01). This work laid down a foundation to further knock down the remaining murine CYP3As or CYPs of other subfamilies, and a basis to generate CYP knockdown animals of other species

Effects of exoskeleton-assisted walking on bowel function in motor-complete spinal cord injury patients: involvement of the brain–gut axis, a pilot study

Evidence has demonstrated that exoskeleton robots can improve intestinal function in patients with spinal cord injury (SCI). However, the underlying mechanisms remain unelucidated. This study investigated the effects of exoskeleton-assisted walking (EAW) on intestinal function and intestinal flora structure in T2-L1 motor complete paraplegia patients. The results showed that five participants in the EAW group and three in the conventional group reported improvements in at least one bowel management index, including an increased frequency of bowel evacuations, less time spent on bowel management per day, and less external assistance (manual digital stimulation, medication, and enema usage). After 8 weeks of training, the amount of glycerol used in the EAW group decreased significantly (p &lt;0.05). The EAW group showed an increasing trend in the neurogenic bowel dysfunction (NBD) score after 8 weeks of training, while the conventional group showed a worsening trend. Patients who received the EAW intervention exhibited a decreased abundance of Bacteroidetes and Verrucomicrobia, while Firmicutes, Proteobacteria, and Actinobacteria were upregulated. In addition, there were decreases in the abundances of Bacteroides, Prevotella, Parabacteroides, Akkermansia, Blautia, Ruminococcus 2, and Megamonas. In contrast, Ruminococcus 1, Ruminococcaceae UCG002, Faecalibacterium, Dialister, Ralstonia, Escherichia-Shigella, and Bifidobacterium showed upregulation among the top 15 genera. The abundance of Ralstonia was significantly higher in the EAW group than in the conventional group, and Dialister increased significantly in EAW individuals at 8 weeks. This study suggests that EAW can improve intestinal function of SCI patients in a limited way, and may be associated with changes in the abundance of intestinal flora, especially an increase in beneficial bacteria. In the future, we need to further understand the changes in microbial groups caused by EAW training and all related impact mechanisms, especially intestinal flora metabolites.Clinical trial registration: https://www.chictr.org.cn/

Graphene-Based Nanocomposites for Energy Storage

Since the first report of using micromechanical cleavage method to produce graphene sheets in 2004, graphene/graphene-based nanocomposites have attracted wide attention both for fundamental aspects as well as applications in advanced energy storage and conversion systems. In comparison to other materials, graphene-based nanostructured materials have unique 2D structure, high electronic mobility, exceptional electronic and thermal conductivities, excellent optical transmittance, good mechanical strength, and ultrahigh surface area. Therefore, they are considered as attractive materials for hydrogen (H2) storage and high-performance electrochemical energy storage devices, such as supercapacitors, rechargeable lithium (Li)-ion batteries, Li–sulfur batteries, Li–air batteries, sodium (Na)-ion batteries, Na–air batteries, zinc (Zn)–air batteries, and vanadium redox flow batteries (VRFB), etc., as they can improve the efficiency, capacity, gravimetric energy/power densities, and cycle life of these energy storage devices. In this article, recent progress reported on the synthesis and fabrication of graphene nanocomposite materials for applications in these aforementioned various energy storage systems is reviewed. Importantly, the prospects and future challenges in both scalable manufacturing and more energy storage-related applications are discussed

Does or did the supernova remnant Cassiopeia A operate as a PeVatron?

For decades, supernova remnants (SNRs) have been considered the prime sources of Galactic Cosmic rays (CRs). But whether SNRs can accelerate CR protons to PeV energies and thus dominate CR flux up to the knee is currently under intensive theoretical and phenomenological debate. The direct test of the ability of SNRs to operate as CR PeVatrons can be provided by ultrahigh-energy (UHE; $E_\gamma \geq 100$~TeV) $\gamma$-rays. In this context, the historical SNR Cassiopeia A (Cas A) is considered one of the most promising target for UHE observations. This paper presents the observation of Cas A and its vicinity by the LHAASO KM2A detector. The exceptional sensitivity of LHAASO KM2A in the UHE band, combined with the young age of Cas A, enabled us to derive stringent model-independent limits on the energy budget of UHE protons and nuclei accelerated by Cas A at any epoch after the explosion. The results challenge the prevailing paradigm that Cas A-type SNRs are major suppliers of PeV CRs in the Milky Way.Comment: 11 pages, 3 figures, Accepted by the APJ

Measurement of ultra-high-energy diffuse gamma-ray emission of the Galactic plane from 10 TeV to 1 PeV with LHAASO-KM2A

The diffuse Galactic $\gamma$-ray emission, mainly produced via interactions between cosmic rays and the interstellar medium and/or radiation field, is a very important probe of the distribution, propagation, and interaction of cosmic rays in the Milky Way. In this work we report the measurements of diffuse $\gamma$-rays from the Galactic plane between 10 TeV and 1 PeV energies, with the square kilometer array of the Large High Altitude Air Shower Observatory (LHAASO). Diffuse emissions from the inner ($15^{\circ}<l<125^{\circ}$, $|b|<5^{\circ}$) and outer ($125^{\circ}<l<235^{\circ}$, $|b|<5^{\circ}$) Galactic plane are detected with $29.1\sigma$ and $12.7\sigma$ significance, respectively. The outer Galactic plane diffuse emission is detected for the first time in the very- to ultra-high-energy domain ($E>10$~TeV). The energy spectrum in the inner Galaxy regions can be described by a power-law function with an index of $-2.99\pm0.04$, which is different from the curved spectrum as expected from hadronic interactions between locally measured cosmic rays and the line-of-sight integrated gas content. Furthermore, the measured flux is higher by a factor of $\sim3$ than the prediction. A similar spectrum with an index of $-2.99\pm0.07$ is found in the outer Galaxy region, and the absolute flux for $10\lesssim E\lesssim60$ TeV is again higher than the prediction for hadronic cosmic ray interactions. The latitude distributions of the diffuse emission are consistent with the gas distribution, while the longitude distributions show clear deviation from the gas distribution. The LHAASO measurements imply that either additional emission sources exist or cosmic ray intensities have spatial variations.Comment: 12 pages, 8 figures, 5 tables; accepted for publication in Physical Review Letters; source mask file provided as ancillary fil

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings: Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44–2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64–3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7–17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8–6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7–10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0–234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7–198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3–214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0–171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3–51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9–52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54–1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5–9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0–19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9–21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0–17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7–27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6–63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4–64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6–2·9) between 2019 and 2021. Interpretation: Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades. Funding: Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation