Coseismic Ground Deformation Reproduced through Numerical Modeling: A Parameter Sensitivity Analysis

Coseismic ground displacements detected through remote sensing surveys are often used to invert the coseismic slip distribution on geologically reliable fault planes. We analyze a well-known case study (2009 L’Aquila earthquake) to investigate how three-dimensional (3D) slip configuration affects coseismic ground surface deformation. Different coseismic slip surface configurations reconstructed using aftershocks distribution and coseismic cracks, were tested using 3D boundary element method numerical models. The models include two with slip patches that reach the surface and three models of blind normal-slip surfaces with different configurations of slip along shallowly-dipping secondary faults. We test the sensitivity of surface deformation to variations in stress drop and rock stiffness. We compare numerical models’ results with line of sight (LOS) surface deformation detected from differential SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) interferometry (DInSAR). The variations in fault configuration, rock stiffness and stress drop associated with the earthquake considerably impact the pattern of surface subsidence. In particular, the models with a coseismic slip patch that does not reach the surface have a better match to the line of sight coseismic surface deformation, as well as better match to the aftershock pattern, than models with rupture that reaches the surface. The coseismic slip along shallowly dipping secondary faults seems to provide a minor contribution toward surface deformation

Coseismic Ground Deformation Reproduced through Numerical Modeling: A Parameter Sensitivity Analysis

Coseismic ground displacements detected through remote sensing surveys are often used to invert the coseismic slip distribution on geologically reliable fault planes. We analyze a well-known case study (2009 L’Aquila earthquake) to investigate how three-dimensional (3D) slip configuration affects coseismic ground surface deformation. Different coseismic slip surface configurations reconstructed using aftershocks distribution and coseismic cracks, were tested using 3D boundary element method numerical models. The models include two with slip patches that reach the surface and three models of blind normal-slip surfaces with different configurations of slip along shallowly-dipping secondary faults. We test the sensitivity of surface deformation to variations in stress drop and rock stiffness. We compare numerical models’ results with line of sight (LOS) surface deformation detected from differential SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) interferometry (DInSAR). The variations in fault configuration, rock stiffness and stress drop associated with the earthquake considerably impact the pattern of surface subsidence. In particular, the models with a coseismic slip patch that does not reach the surface have a better match to the line of sight coseismic surface deformation, as well as better match to the aftershock pattern, than models with rupture that reaches the surface. The coseismic slip along shallowly dipping secondary faults seems to provide a minor contribution toward surface deformation

3D digital outcrop model-based analysis of fracture network along the seismogenic Mt. Vettore Fault System (Central Italy): the importance of inherited fractures

The Mt. Vettore area is located in the Central Apennines (Italy), a region characterized by intense seismic activity that has recorded multiple moderate-to-high magnitude seismic sequences. The seismic activity is due to the presence of normal fault systems, among which is the Mt. Vettore Fault System (VFS), which was last activated during the 2016-17 Central Italy seismic sequence.. Moreover, the region has experienced three major tectonic phases over geological history, thus it is important to unravel their contribution to the current fracture network. Based on the integration of field observation with Unmanned Aerial Vehicle - Digital Photogrammetry data, we aim to analyze the fracture network on eight different outcrops located at different structural positions with respect to VFZ. Results show that the Late Miocene-Early Pliocene compressional phase deeply affected the present-day fracture pattern, which is especially related to the evolution of the Mt. Sibillini regional thrust and its related anticline. The present-day Quaternary extensional phase, and the associated normal faults, mostly reactivate some of the pre-existing fracture sets

Relations between Fault and Fracture Network Affecting the Lastoni di Formin Carbonate Platform (Italian Dolomites) and Its Deformation History

In this study, we analyze the fault and fracture network of the Middle Triassic carbonate platform of the Lastoni di Formin (Italian Dolomites, Italy). The reconstruction of the deformation history is of primary importance for a full comprehension of the present structural setting of this carbonate platform. The huge dimensions of the carbonate body and superb exposure of its vertical cliffs and gently dipping top plateau make the Lastoni di Formin platform an ideal outcrop to integrate traditional fieldwork with Digital Outcrop Modelling analysis. The results of the structural studies partially confirm that the present-day fracture pattern is the result of differential compaction-induced deformation that generated WNW-ESE-trending extensional fractures and normal faults, perpendicular to the direction of progradation of the platform. Successively, extensional tectonics, likely related to the Jurassic rifting phase, led to the formation of NNW-SSE striking fractures and westward-dipping normal faults. A Neogene compressional tectonic event, characterized by N-S to NW-SE crustal shortening, deformed the platform, essentially with strike-slip structures

Response of ancient inherited structures to new seismic sequence: insides the central Apennines.

The central Apennines present complex fault structures resulting from the superposition of different tectonic phases. During the Lower Mesozoic the area was part of the passive margin of the Tethys; from the Miocene the area underwent a change of deformation regime associated with the collision between Africa and Europe. This phase went on until the middle Pleistocene building a thrust belt and related foreland basin. Since the late Pleistocene the axial zone of the thrust belt is undergoing extensional tectonics as demonstrated by the recent most earthquakes in the area (L’Aquila 2009, Central Italy, 2016). Given the complex structure of the Apennines, interactions between different fault systems cannot be excluded. For this reason, we modeled alternative fault geometries in order to determine which may be the most consistent with the measured ground deformation associated with the L’Aquila earthquake. Merging literature data, more than 50.000 relocated events (INGV courtesy) and the main focal mechanisms, we built a 3D geological model of the main fault responsible for the L'Aquila 2009 earthquake. Taking advantage of numerical models, we tested different plausible fault configurations comparing the surface deformation obtained from the numerical models with InSAR data. The model with active fault that daylights produces surface deformation that greatly exceeds that observed from geodesy; results of other models are consistent with the presence of blind faults (upper tip ~ 2 km depth). A set of alternative fault geometries that include different degrees of reactivation of secondary faults have been and will be modeled. The results of these models represent a wide range of cases that can help us to better understand how buried faults can affect surface deformation and how they can interact with pre-existing discontinuities

Probabilistic Assessment of Slip Rates and Their Variability Over Time of Offshore Buried Thrusts: A Case Study in the Northern Adriatic Sea

When sedimentation rates overtake tectonic rates, the detection of ongoing tectonic deformation signatures becomes particularly challenging. The Northern Apennines orogen is one such case where a thick Plio-Pleistocene foredeep sedimentary cover blankets the fold-and-thrust belt, straddling from onshore (Po Plain) to offshore (Adriatic Sea), leading to subtle or null topo-bathymetric expression of the buried structures. The seismic activity historically recorded in the region is moderate; nonetheless, seismic sequences nearing magnitude 6 punctuated the last century, and even some small tsunamis were reported in the coastal locations following the occurrence of offshore earthquakes. In this work, we tackled the problem of assessing the potential activity of buried thrusts by analyzing a rich dataset of 2D seismic reflection profiles and wells in a sector of the Northern Apennines chain located in the near-offshore of the Adriatic Sea. This analysis enabled us to reconstruct the 3D geometry of eleven buried thrusts. We then documented the last 4 Myr slip history of four of such thrusts intersected by two high-quality regional cross-sections that were depth converted and restored. Based on eight stratigraphic horizons with well-constrained age determinations (Zanclean to Middle Pleistocene), we determined the slip and slip rates necessary to recover the observed horizon deformation. The slip rates are presented through probability density functions that consider the uncertainties derived from the horizon ages and the restoration process. Our results show that the thrust activation proceeds from the inner to the outer position in the chain. The slip history reveals an exponential reduction over time, implying decelerating slip-rates spanning three orders of magnitudes (from a few millimeters to a few hundredths of millimeters per year) with a major slip-rate change around 1.5 Ma. In agreement with previous works, these findings confirm the slip rate deceleration as a widespread behavior of the Northern Apennines thrust faults

Tectonics vs. Climate efficiency in triggering detrital input in sedimentary basins: the Po Plain-Venetian-Adriatic Foreland Basin (Northern Italy)

The relative efficiency of tectonics respect to climate in triggering erosion of mountain belts is a classical but still open debate in geosciences. The fact that data both from tectonically active and inactive mountain regions in dif- ferent latitudes, record a worldwide increase of sediment input to sedimentary basins during the last million years concomitantly with the cooling of global climate and its evolution toward the modern high amplitude oscillating conditions pushed some authors to conclude that Pliocene-Pleistocene climate has been more efficient than tecton- ics in triggering mountain erosion. Po Plain-Venetian-Adriatic Foreland System, made by the relatively independent Po Plain-Northern Adriatic Basin and Venetian-Friulian Basin, provides an ideal case of study to test this hypothesis and possibly quantify the dif- ference between the efficiency of the two. In fact it is a relatively closed basin (i.e. without significant sediment escape) with a fairly continuous sedimentation (i.e. with a quite continuous sedimentary record) completely sur- rounded by collisional belts (Alps, Northern Apennines and Dinarides) that experienced only very weak tectonic activity since Calabrian time, i.e. when climate cooling and cyclicity increased the most. We present a quantitative reconstruction of the sediment flow delivered from the surrounding mountain belts to the different part of the basin during Pliocene-Pleistocene time. This flow was obtained through the 3D reconstruction of the Venetian-Friulian and Po Plain Northern Adriatic Basins architecture, performed by means of the seismic- based interpretation and time-to-depth conversion of six chronologically constrained surfaces (seismic and well log data from courtesy of ENI); moreover, a 3D decompaction of the sediment volume bounded by each couple of surfaces has been included in the workflow, in order to avoid compaction-related bias. The obtained results show in both Basins a rapid four-folds increase of the sediment input occurred since mid- Pleistocene time respect to Pliocene-Gelasian times. Even if the absolute amount of sediment arriving in the two basins is quite different, reflecting the different extension of their source regions, this increase occurred concomi- tantly with both the strong decrease of tectonic activity in the surrounding belts and the onset of major glaciations in the Alpine range. Therefore we argue that a cool, highly oscillating climate, causing glacial-interglacial cycles is approximately 4 times more efficient than tectonics in promoting the erosion of mountain belts and the related detrital input in the surrounding sedimentary basins

3D Architecture and evolution of the Po Plain-Northern Adriatic Foreland basin during Plio-Pleistocene time

The Pliocene-Pleistocene tectonic and sedimentary evolution of the eastern Po Plain and northern Adriatic Fore- land Basin (PPAF) (extended ca. 35,000 km2) was the consequence of severe Northern Apennine compressional activity and climate-driven eustatic changes. According with the 2D seismic interpretation, facies analysis and sequence stratigraphy approach by Ghielmi et al. (2013 and references therein), these tectono-eustatic phases generated six basin-scale unconformities referred as Base Pliocene (PL1), Intra-Zanclean (PL2), Intra-Piacenzian (PL3), Gelasian (PL4), Base Calabrian (PS1) and Late Calabrian (PS2). We present a basin-wide detailed 3D model of the PPAF region, derived from the interpretation of these uncon- formities in a dense network of seismic lines (ca. 6,000 km) correlated with more than 200 well stratigraphies (courtesy of ENI E&P). The initial 3D time-model has been time-to-depth converted using the 3D velocity model created with Vel-IO 3D, a tool for 3D depth conversions and then validated and integrated with depth domain dataset from bibliography and well log. Resultant isobath and isopach maps are produced to inspect step-by-step the basin paleogeographic evolution; it occurred through alternating stages of simple and fragmented foredeeps. Changes in the basin geometry through time, from the inner sector located in the Emilia-Romagna Apennines to the outermost region (Veneto and northern Adriatic Sea), were marked by repeated phases of outward migration of two large deep depocenters located in front of Emilia arcs on the west, and in front of Ferrara-Romagna thrusts on the east. During late Pliocene-early Pleistocene, the inner side of the Emilia-Romagna arcs evolved into an elongated deep thrust-top basin due to a strong foredeep fragmentation then, an overall tectono-stratigraphic analysis shows also a decreasing trend of tectonic intensity of the Northern Apennine since Pleistocene until present

Buried Alive: Imaging the 9 November 2022, Mw 5.5 Earthquake Source on the Offshore Adriatic Blind Thrust Front of the Northern Apennines (Italy)

The prompt identification of faults responsible for moderate-to-large earthquakes is fundamental for understanding the likelihood of further, potentially damaging events. This is increasingly challenging when the activated fault is an offshore buried thrust, where neither coseismic surface ruptures nor GPS/InSAR deformation data are available after an earthquake. We show that on 9 November 2022, an Mw 5.5 earthquake offshore Pesaro ruptured a portion of the buried Northern Apennines thrust front (the Cornelia thrust system [CTS]). By post-processing and interpreting the seismic reflection profiles crossing this thrust system, we determined that the activated fault (CTS) is an arcuate 30-km-long, NW-SE striking, SW dipping thrust and that older structures at its footwall possibly influenced its position and geometry. The activation of adjacent segments of the thrust system is a plausible scenario that deserves to be further investigated to understand the full earthquake potential of this offshore seismogenic source