Human, animal, water source interactions and leptospirosis in Thailand.

In Thailand, leptospirosis is primarily associated with those who work in agricultural occupations. Leptospirosis control is hampered by a poor understanding of the complex interactions between humans, animal reservoirs, Leptospira, and the variable spatial environment in which these factors coexist. We aimed to address key knowledge gaps concerning leptospirosis disease dynamics and the human-animal-water-source interface in two high-risk areas in Thailand. We conducted a cross-sectional survey among 746 study participants in two high-risk areas for leptospirosis in Thailand: Sisaket (SSK) and Nakhon Si Thammarat (NST). Interactions among humans, animals and water sources were quantified and analyzed. The presence of different animal species and thus contact patterns were different in NST and SSK. The consumption of water from the shared sources between the two areas was different. Those whose occupations were related to animals or environmental water and those who consumed water from more than two sources were more likely to have been infected with leptospirosis, with adjusted odds ratios 4.31 (95% CI 1.17-15.83) and 10.74 (95% CI 2.28-50.53), respectively. Understanding specific water-source sharing networks and human-animal contact patterns is useful when designing national and area-specific control programmes to prevent and control leptospirosis outbreaks

Modelling the COVID-19 pandemic in context : An international participatory approach

Funding RA is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1193472). LW is funded by the Li Ka Shing Foundation. CF is funded by grant #2017/26770-8, São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP). The CoMo Consortium has support from the Oxford University COVID-19 Research Response Fund (ref: 0009280). Scientific writing assistance and editorial support was provided by Adam Bodley, according to Good Publication Practice guidelines.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Potential health and economic impacts of dexamethasone treatment for patients with COVID-19

Acknowledgements We thank all members of the COVID-19 International Modelling Consortium and their collaborative partners. This work was supported by the COVID-19 Research Response Fund, managed by the Medical Sciences Division, University of Oxford. L.J.W. is supported by the Li Ka Shing Foundation. R.A. acknowledges funding from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1193472).Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Evaluating the impact of intervention strategies on the first wave and predicting the second wave of COVID-19 in Thailand: a mathematical modeling study

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread rapidly worldwide. This study aimed to assess and predict the incidence of COVID-19 in Thailand, including the preparation and evaluation of intervention strategies. An SEIR (susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered) model was implemented with model parameters estimated using the Bayesian approach. The model's projections showed that the highest daily reported incidence of COVID-19 would be approximately 140 cases (95% credible interval, CrI: 83-170 cases) by the end of March 2020. After Thailand declared an emergency decree, the numbers of new cases and case fatalities decreased, with no new imported cases. According to the model's predictions, the incidence would be zero at the end of June if non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were strictly and widely implemented. These stringent NPIs reduced the effective reproductive number (Rt) to 0.73 per day (95% CrI: 0.53-0.93) during April and May. Sensitivity analysis showed that contact rate, hand washing, and face mask wearing effectiveness were the parameters that most influenced the number of reported daily new cases. Our evaluation shows that Thailand's intervention strategies have been highly effective in mitigating disease propagation. Continuing with these strict disease prevention behaviors could minimize the risk of a new COVID-19 outbreak in Thailand

Satisfaction with paper-based dental records and perception of electronic dental records among dental professionals in Myanmar

Objectives To overcome challenges in the implementation of electronic dental record systems in a low-resource setting, it is crucial to know the level of users’ satisfaction with the existing system of paper-based dental records and their perceptions of electronic dental records. Methods A cross-sectional paper-based questionnaire survey was conducted among Myanmar dental professionals who worked in one of two teaching hospitals or in private dental clinics. Descriptive data were analyzed and regression analysis was carried out to identify factors influencing perceptions of electronic dental records. Results Most dental professionals (&gt;60%) were satisfied with just three out of six aspects of paper-based dental records (familiarity, flexibility, and portability). In addition, generalized positive perceptions were found among decision makers towards electronic dental records, and 86% of dentists indicated that they were willing to use them. Financial concerns were identified as the most important barrier to the implementation of electronic dental records among dentists who were not willing to use the proposed system. Conclusions The first step towards implementing electronic dental records in Myanmar should be improvement of the content and structure of paper-based dental records, especially in private dental clinics. Utilization of appropriate open-source electronic dental record software in private dental clinics is recommended to address perceived issues around financial barriers. For the long term, we recommend providing further education and training in health informatics to healthcare professionals to facilitate the efficient use of electronic dental record software in Myanmar in the future.</p

Satisfaction with paper-based dental records and perception of electronic dental records among dental professionals in Myanmar

Objectives To overcome challenges in the implementation of electronic dental record systems in a low-resource setting, it is crucial to know the level of users’ satisfaction with the existing system of paper-based dental records and their perceptions of electronic dental records. Methods A cross-sectional paper-based questionnaire survey was conducted among Myanmar dental professionals who worked in one of two teaching hospitals or in private dental clinics. Descriptive data were analyzed and regression analysis was carried out to identify factors influencing perceptions of electronic dental records. Results Most dental professionals (>60%) were satisfied with just three out of six aspects of paper-based dental records (familiarity, flexibility, and portability). In addition, generalized positive perceptions were found among decision makers towards electronic dental records, and 86% of dentists indicated that they were willing to use them. Financial concerns were identified as the most important barrier to the implementation of electronic dental records among dentists who were not willing to use the proposed system. Conclusions The first step towards implementing electronic dental records in Myanmar should be improvement of the content and structure of paper-based dental records, especially in private dental clinics. Utilization of appropriate open-source electronic dental record software in private dental clinics is recommended to address perceived issues around financial barriers. For the long term, we recommend providing further education and training in health informatics to healthcare professionals to facilitate the efficient use of electronic dental record software in Myanmar in the future.</p

The reliability of the clinical examination in predicting hemodynamic status in acute febrile illness in a tropical, resource-limited setting

Introduction The clinical examination alone is widely considered unreliable when assessing fluid responsiveness in critically ill patients. Little evidence exists on the performance of the clinical examination to predict other hemodynamic derangements or more complex hemodynamic states. Materials and methods Patients with acute febrile illness were assessed on admission, both clinically and per non-invasive hemodynamic measurement. Correlations between clinical signs and hemodynamics patterns were analyzed, and the predictive capacity of the clinical signs was examined. Results Seventy-one patients were included; the most common diagnoses were bacterial sepsis, scrub typhus and dengue infection. Correlations between clinical signs and hemodynamic parameters were only statistically significant for Cardiac Index (r=0.75, p-value <0.01), Systemic Vascular Resistance Index (r=0.79, p-value <0.01) and flow time corrected (r=0.44, p-value 0.03). When assessing the predictive accuracy of clinical signs, the model identified only 62% of hemodynamic states correctly, even less if there was more than one hemodynamic abnormality. Discussion The clinical examination is not reliable to assess a patient's hemodynamic status in acute febrile illness. Fluid responsiveness, cardiodepression and more complex hemodynamic states are particularly easily missed

Assessing the impacts of short-course multidrug-resistant tuberculosis treatment in the Southeast Asia Region using a mathematical modeling approach

This study aimed to predict the impacts of shorter duration treatment regimens for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) on both MDR-TB percentage among new cases and overall MDR-TB cases in the WHO Southeast Asia Region. A deterministic compartmental model was constructed to describe both the transmission of TB and the MDR-TB situation in the Southeast Asia region. The population-level impacts of short-course treatment regimens were compared with the impacts of conventional regimens. Multi-way analysis was used to evaluate the impact by varying programmatic factors (eligibility for short-course MDR-TB treatment, treatment initiation, and drug susceptibility test (DST) coverage). The model predicted that overall TB incidence will be reduced from 246 (95% credible intervals (CrI), 221-275) per 100,000 population in 2020 to 239 (95% CrI, 215-267) per 100,000 population in 2035, with a modest reduction of 2.8% (95% CrI, 2.7%-2.9%). Despite the slight reduction in overall TB infections, the model predicted that the MDR-TB percentage among newly notified TB infections will remain steady, with 2.4% (95% CrI, 2.1-2.9) in 2020 and 2.5% (95% CrI, 2.3-3.1) in 2035, using conventional MDR-TB treatment. With the introduction of short-course regimens to treat MDR-TB, the development of resistance can be slowed by 38.6% (95% confidence intervals (CI), 35.9-41.3) reduction in MDR-TB case number, and 37.6% (95% CI, 34.9-40.3) reduction in MDR-TB percentage among new TB infections over the 30-year period compared with the baseline using the standard treatment regimen. The multi-way analysis showed eligibility for short-course treatment and treatment initiation greatly influenced the impacts of short-course treatment regimens on reductions in MDR-TB cases and percentage resistance among new infections. Policies which promote the expansion of short-course regimens and early MDR-TB treatment initiation should be considered along with other interventions to tackle antimicrobial resistance in the region

The incidence, presentation, outcomes, risk of mortality and economic data of drug-induced liver injury from a national database in Thailand: A population-base study

Background Toxic liver diseases are mainly caused by drug-induced liver injury (DILI). We assessed incidences and outcomes of DILI including associated factors for mortality. Methods We performed a population-based study of hospitalized patients with DILI. Information was retrieved from the Nationwide Hospital Admission Data using ICD-10 code of toxic liver diseases (K71) and additional codes (T36–T65). The associated factors were analyzed with log-rank test, univariate and multiple cox regression analysis. Results During 2009–2013, a total of 159,061 (average 21,165 per year) admissions were related to liver diseases. 6,516 admissions (1,303 per year) were due to toxic liver diseases. The most common type of toxic liver disease was acute hepatitis (33.5 %). In-hospital and 90-day mortality rates were 3.4 % and 17.2 %. DILI with cirrhosis yielded the highest in-hospital and 90-day mortality rates (15.8 % and 47.4 %). Acetaminophen, cirrhosis and age ≥ 60 years were seen in 0.5 %, 8.3 % and 50.1 % of patients who died versus 5 %, 2.3 % and 32.4 % of survivors. Factors associated with mortality were cirrhosis (HR 2.72, 95 % CI: 2.33–3.19), age ≥60 years (HR 2.16, 95 % CI: 1.96–2.38), human immunodeficiency viral infection (HR 2.11, 95 % CI: 1.88–2.36), chronic kidney disease (HR 1.59, 95 % CI: 1.33–1.90), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and bronchiectasis (HR 1.55, 95 % CI: 1.17–2.04), malnutrition (HR 1.43, 95 % CI: 1.10–1.86) and male (HR 1.31, 95 % CI: 1.21–1.43). Acetaminophen DILI yielded lower risks of mortality (HR 0.24, 95 % CI: 0.13–0.42). The most common causes of DILI were acetaminophen (35.0 %) and anti-tuberculous drugs (34.7 %). Conclusions DILI is an uncommon indication for hospitalization carrying lower risks of death except in patients with non-acetaminophen, cirrhosis, elderly or concomitant diseases.</p