Representativeness-Based Sampling Network Design for the Arctic

Resource and logistical constraints limit the frequency and extent of environmental observations, particularly in the Arctic, necessitating the development of a systematic sampling strategy to maximize coverage and objectively represent environmental variability at desired scales. Required is a quantitative methodology for stratifying sampling domains, informing site selection, and determining the representativeness of measurement sites and networks. Multivariate spatiotemporal clustering was applied to down-scaled general circulation model results and data for the State of Alaska at 2 km ✕ 2 km resolution to define multiple sets of bioclimatic ecoregions across two decadal time periods. Maps of ecoregions for the present (2000–2009) and future (2090–2099) were produced, showing how combinations of 37 bioclimatic and permafrost characteristics are distributed and how they may shift in the future. Representative sampling locations are identified on present and future ecoregion maps. A representativeness metric was developed, and representativeness maps for eight candidate sampling locations were produced. This metric was used to characterize the environmental similarity of each site. This analysis provides model-inspired insights into optimal sampling strategies, offers a framework for up-scaling measurements, and provides a down-scaling approach for integration of models and measurements. These techniques can be applied at different spatial and temporal scales to meet the needs of individual measurement campaigns. More recently, we have extended this approach to investigate pan-Arctic and tropical forest representativeness, employing remote sensing and other data products, to quantify coverage of spatial heterogeneity from international monitoring and sampling efforts. New results describing global forest site constituency and Arctic sampling regimes will be presented

Scaling carbon fluxes from eddy covariance sites to globe: Synthesis and evaluation of the FLUXCOM approach

FLUXNET assembles globally-distributed eddy covariance-based estimates of carbon fluxes between the biosphere and the atmosphere. Since eddy covariance flux towers have a relatively small footprint and are distributed unevenly across the world, upscaling the observations is necessary in order to obtain global-scale estimates of biosphere-atmosphere exchange from the flux tower network. Based on cross-consistency checks with atmospheric inversions, sun-induced fluorescence (SIF) and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVM), we provide here a systematic assessment of the latest upscaling efforts for gross primary production (GPP) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of the FLUXCOM initiative, where different machine learning methods, forcing datasets, and sets of predictor variables were employed. Spatial patterns of mean GPP are consistent among FLUXCOM and DGVM ensembles (R2 > 0.94 at 1° spatial resolution) while the majority of DGVMs are outside the FLUXCOM range for 70 % of the land surface. Global mean GPP magnitudes for 2008–2010 from FLUXCOM members vary within 106 and 130 PgC yr−1 with the largest uncertainty in the tropics. Seasonal variations of independent SIF estimates agree better with FLUXCOM GPP (mean global pixel-wise R2 ~ 0.75) than with GPP from DGVMs (mean global pixel wise R2 ~ 0.6). Seasonal variations of FLUXCOM NEE show good consistency with atmospheric inversion-based net land carbon fluxes, particularly for temperate and boreal regions (R2 > 0.92). Interannual variability of global NEE in FLUXCOM is underestimated compared to inversions and DGVMs. The FLUXCOM version which uses also meteorological inputs shows a strong co-variation of interannual patterns with inversions (R2 = 0.88 for 2001–2010). Mean regional NEE from FLUXCOM shows larger uptake than inversion and DGVM-based estimates, particularly in the tropics with discrepancies of up to several hundred gC m2 yr−1. These discrepancies can only partly be reconciled by carbon loss pathways that are implicit in inversions but not captured by the flux tower measurements such as carbon emissions from fires and water bodies. We hypothesize that a combination of systematic biases in the underlying eddy covariance data, in particular in tall tropical forests, and a lack of site-history effects on NEE in FLUXCOM are likely responsible for the too strong tropical carbon sink estimated by FLUXCOM. Furthermore, as FLUXCOM does not account for CO2 fertilization effects carbon flux trends are not realistic. Overall, current FLUXCOM estimates of mean annual and seasonal cycles of GPP as well as seasonal NEE variations provide useful constraints of global carbon cycling, while interannual variability patterns from FLUXCOM are valuable but require cautious interpretation. Exploring the diversity of Earth Observation data and of machine learning concepts along with improved quality and quantity of flux tower measurements will facilitate further improvements of the FLUXCOM approach overall

Earlier snowmelt may lead to late season declines in plant productivity and carbon sequestration in Arctic tundra ecosystems

Arctic warming is affecting snow cover and soil hydrology, with consequences for carbon sequestration in tundra ecosystems. The scarcity of observations in the Arctic has limited our understanding of the impact of covarying environmental drivers on the carbon balance of tundra ecosystems. In this study, we address some of these uncertainties through a novel record of 119 site-years of summer data from eddy covariance towers representing dominant tundra vegetation types located on continuous permafrost in the Arctic. Here we found that earlier snowmelt was associated with more tundra net CO2 sequestration and higher gross primary productivity (GPP) only in June and July, but with lower net carbon sequestration and lower GPP in August. Although higher evapotranspiration (ET) can result in soil drying with the progression of the summer, we did not find significantly lower soil moisture with earlier snowmelt, nor evidence that water stress affected GPP in the late growing season. Our results suggest that the expected increased CO2 sequestration arising from Arctic warming and the associated increase in growing season length may not materialize if tundra ecosystems are not able to continue sequestering CO2 later in the season

Earlier snowmelt may lead to late season declines in plant productivity and carbon sequestration in Arctic tundra ecosystems

Arctic warming is affecting snow cover and soil hydrology, with consequences for carbon sequestration in tundra ecosystems. The scarcity of observations in the Arctic has limited our understanding of the impact of covarying environmental drivers on the carbon balance of tundra ecosystems. In this study, we address some of these uncertainties through a novel record of 119 site-years of summer data from eddy covariance towers representing dominant tundra vegetation types located on continuous permafrost in the Arctic. Here we found that earlier snowmelt was associated with more tundra net CO2 sequestration and higher gross primary productivity (GPP) only in June and July, but with lower net carbon sequestration and lower GPP in August. Although higher evapotranspiration (ET) can result in soil drying with the progression of the summer, we did not find significantly lower soil moisture with earlier snowmelt, nor evidence that water stress affected GPP in the late growing season. Our results suggest that the expected increased CO2 sequestration arising from Arctic warming and the associated increase in growing season length may not materialize if tundra ecosystems are not able to continue sequestering CO2 later in the season.Peer reviewe

Earlier snowmelt may lead to late season declines in plant productivity and carbon sequestration in Arctic tundra ecosystems

Arctic warming is affecting snow cover and soil hydrology, with consequences for carbon sequestration in tundra ecosystems. The scarcity of observations in the Arctic has limited our understanding of the impact of covarying environmental drivers on the carbon balance of tundra ecosystems. In this study, we address some of these uncertainties through a novel record of 119 site-years of summer data from eddy covariance towers representing dominant tundra vegetation types located on continuous permafrost in the Arctic. Here we found that earlier snowmelt was associated with more tundra net CO2 sequestration and higher gross primary productivity (GPP) only in June and July, but with lower net carbon sequestration and lower GPP in August. Although higher evapotranspiration (ET) can result in soil drying with the progression of the summer, we did not find significantly lower soil moisture with earlier snowmelt, nor evidence that water stress affected GPP in the late growing season. Our results suggest that the expected increased CO2 sequestration arising from Arctic warming and the associated increase in growing season length may not materialize if tundra ecosystems are not able to continue sequestering CO2 later in the season

A new terrestrial biosphere model with coupled carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus cycles (QUINCY v1.0; revision 1772)

The dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems are shaped by the coupled cycles of carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus, and strongly depend on the availability of water and energy. These interactions shape future terrestrial biosphere responses to global change. Many process-based models of the terrestrial biosphere have been gradually extended from considering carbon-water interactions to also including nitrogen, and later, phosphorus dynamics. This evolutionary model development has hindered full integration of these biogeochemical cycles and the feedbacks amongst them. Here we present a new terrestrial ecosystem model QUINCY (QUantifying Interactions between terrestrial Nutrient CYcles and the climate system), which is formulated around a consistent representation of element cycling in terrestrial ecosystems. This new model includes i) a representation of plant growth which separates source (e.g. photosynthesis) and sink (growth rate of individual tissues, constrained by nutrients, temperature, and water availability) processes; ii) the acclimation of many ecophysiological processes to meteorological conditions and/or nutrient availabilities; iii) an explicit representation of vertical soil processes to separate litter and soil organic matter dynamics; iv) a range of new diagnostics (leaf chlorophyll content; 13C, 14C, and 15N isotope tracers) to allow for a more in-depth model evaluation. We present the model structure and provide an assessment of its performance against a range of observations from global-scale ecosystem monitoring networks. We demonstrate that the framework is capable of consistently simulating ecosystem dynamics across a large gradient in climate and soil conditions, as well as across different plant functional types. To aid this understanding we provide an assessment of the model's sensitivity to its parameterisation and the associated uncertainty