Demographic Dividend or Demographic Threat in Pakistan

Population growth and size have remained the focus of debate for centuries but the recent demographic transition in developing countries has made social scientists take note of the changing age structure of the population as well. As a result of declining population growth and consequent changes in age structure, the proportion of working-age population is increasing in most developing countries, with an associated decline in the dependent age population, offering a window of opportunity to these countries that is referred to as the demographic dividend. Pakistan is also going through the demographic transition, and is experiencing a once-in-a-lifetime demographic dividend as the working-age population bulges and the dependency ratio declines. This paper looks into the demographic dividend available to Pakistan and its implications for the country, mainly through three mechanisms : labour supply, savings, and human capital. For economic benefits to materialise, there is a need for policies dealing with education, public health, and those that promote labour market flexibility and provide incentives for investment and savings. On the contrary, if appropriate policies are not formulated, the demographic dividend might in fact be a cost, leading to unemployment and an unbearable strain on education, health, and old age security.Demographic dividend, age-structure, demographic transition, Pakistan

Demographic Dividend or Demographic Threat in Pakistan

Population growth and size have remained the focus of debate for centuries but the recent demographic transition in developing countries has made social scientists take note of the changing age structure of the population as well. As a result of declining population growth and consequent changes in age structure, the proportion of working-age population is increasing in most developing countries, with an associated decline in the dependent age population, offering a window of opportunity to these countries that is referred to as the “demographic dividend”. Pakistan is also going through the demographic transition, and is experiencing a once-in-a-lifetime demographic dividend as the working-age population bulges and the dependency ratio declines. This paper looks into the demographic dividend available to Pakistan and its implications for the country, mainly through three mechanisms: labour supply, savings, and human capital. For economic benefits to materialise, there is a need for policies dealing with education, public health, and those that promote labour market flexibility and provide incentives for investment and savings. On the contrary, if appropriate policies are not formulated, the demographic dividend might in fact be a cost, leading to unemployment and an unbearable strain on education, health, and old age securityDemographic dividend, age-structure, demographic transition, Pakistan

Demographic Transition and Youth Employment in Pakistan

There is convincing evidence that Pakistan has entered the demographic bonus phase; child dependency is declining and youth share in the total population is rising. This paper has examined youth employment in the context of demographic transition evidenced since the early 1990s. Changes in the level of educational attainment have also been analysed. The study has used the data from Pakistan Demographic Surveys and Labour Force Surveys carried out between 1990 and 2005. Findings of the study show that the benefits of demographic transition in terms of rising share of youth in the total population has partially been translated through development of their human capital and productive absorption in the local labour market. While the pace of human capital formation seems to be satisfactory in urban Pakistan, it is dismal in rural areas, particularly for females. High levels of both female inactivity across the education categories and unemployment for males as well as females urge a strong youth employment policy in Pakistan to reap the benefits of the ongoing demographic transition. Youth are a source of development, and a high priority may be placed on preparing them with the skills needed for their adjustment in the labour market.Demographic Transition, Youth, Employment, Pakistan

Examining employee attitudes and behaviours towards organisational change using supervisor and peer relations

This study focuses on employee workplace and demographic predictors to know the employee attitudes and behaviours regarding organisational change. Five hundered fifty six surveys out of one thousand were returned from full time academics working in public sector universities of Pakistan. The findings indicate significant relationships between readiness for change and workplace and demographic factors. First time supervisor and peer relations predictor has been examined to readiness for change. Results indicate positive and significant relationships between readiness for change and supervisor and peer relations. However, from demographic characteristics only two i.e. number of dependents and younger employees have positive and significant relationships to readiness for change. This study contribute in the literature on change management particularly for developing countries i.e. Pakistan and assist the management and practitioners of human resources management (HRM), organisational development (OD) and change agents in assessing, designing and evaluating new or existing programs for organisational change

Gender Dimensions of Demographic Change in Pakistan

The achieving of equality and equity between men and women in different spheres of life is essential for the attainment of sustainable development goals. In this context, the need for enhancement of women’s participation in national development programmes and their full integration into the development process has been widely recognised in various global and regional forums. More recently, the Programme of Action adopted by the International Conference on Population and Development at Cairo in 1994 reaffirmed and elaborated the role of women in national development, and endorsed a new strategy that emphasises “gender equality, equity and empowerment of women”. In this context, the Programme of Action recommends that countries should act to empower women and should take steps to eliminate inequalities between men and women by providing them with more choices through expanded access to education and health services, skill development and employment, and eliminating all practices that discriminate against women [United Nations (1995)]. Pursuant to these principles, it is of interest to study the gender related aspects of population and development with a particular focus on the current situation and role of women in the family. While it is true that men are viewed as head of the family in almost all social structures who participate more in the formal economic and social affairs and decision making in the community, it is equally true that women tend to play a major role in household affairs, in forming production and consumption patterns and in generating income for the family.

Determinants of Urban Poverty: The Case of Medium Sized City in Pakistan

Urban poverty, which is distinct from rural poverty due to demographic, economic and political aspects remain hitherto unexplored, at the city level in Pakistan. We have examined the determinants of urban poverty in Sargodha, a medium-size city of Pakistan. The analysis is based on the survey of 330 households. Results suggest that employment in public sector, investment in human capital and access to public amenities reduce poverty while employment in informal sector, greater household size and female dominated households increase poverty. We recommend greater investment in human capital and public amenities as a strategy for poverty alleviation.Urban Poverty, Pakistan

Determinants of Urban Poverty : The Case of Medium Sized City in Pakistan

Urban poverty, which is distinct from rural poverty due to demographic, economic and political aspects remain hitherto unexplored, at the city level in Pakistan. We have examined the determinants of urban poverty in Sargodha, a medium-size city of Pakistan. The analysis is based on the survey of 330 households. Results suggest that employment in public sector, investment in human capital and access to public amenities reduce poverty while employment in informal sector, greater household size and female dominated households increase poverty. We recommend greater investment in human capital and public amenities as a strategy for poverty alleviation.Urban Poverty, Pakistan

Interaction between population and Enviromental Degradation

The present study investigates the long-run interrelationship among the demographic variables and environmental indicators by using the Johansen-Juselius cointegration technique and error correction model to determine the short-run dynamics of the system related to time series data for Pakistan economy, over the period 1972–2001. The paper finds the existence of a cointegrating vector, indicating a valid long-run relationship among the variables. Moreover, demographic variables have a significant effect in the short-run on AL but their short-run coefficients have an insignificant impact on CO2 emission. The empirical evidence clearly support that high population growth rates have a deleterious impact on environment. The policy implication thereof is to enhance the need of lowering population in Pakistan which seems to be a burden on the existing resources and a challenge to the environment.

Fertility Transition in Pakistan: Evidence from Census

In the absence of an accurate and complete registration system, efforts were made to estimate the levels of vital statistics through sample surveys. The first such effort was made through the Population Growth Estimation (PGE) project conducted from January, 1962 to December 1965. Later on, various demographic surveys were conducted almost at regular intervals and the last effort in the series was Pakistan Reproductive Health and Family Planning Survey (PRHFPS) in the year 2000-01. Although all these efforts were made to ascertain levels and trends of various demographic events, yet the estimates particularly the ones on fertility remained controversial. The first signal of fertility reduction was emanated from the 1975 Pakistan Fertility Survey (PFS) which estimated a Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 6.3 children from over 7 children estimated earlier from PGE data. However, all hopes of the onset of fertility transition were shattered by the [Retherford’s, et al. (1987)] study entitled “Fertility Trend in Pakistan: The Decline that Wasn’t”. By using the Own Children Method, they confirmed that the decline in fertility was an artifact of the data. Another study by Shah, Pullum, and Irfan (1986) also termed the fertility decline shown by the PFS data as spurious. The Pakistan Labour Force and Migration Survey, conducted five years later, in 1979-80, estimated a TFR of 6.5 children, thus providing another proof supporting the fact that fertility had not declined to the extent believed.