Identification of activity peaks in time-tagged data with a scan-statistics driven clustering method and its application to gamma-ray data samples

The investigation of activity periods in time-tagged data-samples is a topic of large interest. Among Astrophysical samples, gamma-ray sources are widely studied, due to the huge quasi-continuum data set available today from the FERMI-LAT and AGILE-GRID gamma-ray telescopes. To reveal flaring episodes of a given gamma-ray source, researchers make use of binned light-curves. This method suffers several drawbacks: the results depends on time-binning, the identification of activity periods is difficult for bins with low signal to noise ratio. I developed a general temporal-unbinned method to identify flaring periods in time-tagged data and discriminate statistically-significant flares: I propose an event clustering method in one-dimension to identify flaring episodes, and Scan-statistics to evaluate the flare significance within the whole data sample. This is a photometric algorithm. The comparison of the photometric results (e.g., photometric flux, gamma-ray spatial distribution) for the identified peaks with the standard likelihood analysis for the same period is mandatory to establish if source-confusion is spoiling results. The procedure can be applied to reveal flares in any time-tagged data sample. The study of the gamma ray activity of 3C 454.3 and of the fast variability of the Crab Nebula are shown as examples. The result of the proposed method is similar to a photometric light curve, but peaks are resolved, they are statistically significant within the whole period of investigation, and peak detection capability does not suffer time-binning related issues. The method can be applied for gamma-ray sources of known celestial position. Furthermore the method can be used when it is necessary to assess the statistical significance within the whole period of investigation of a flare from an unknown gamma-ray source.Comment: 17 pages, 10 figures Accepted for publication in A&

A multiwavelength view of BL Lacs neutrino candidates

The discovery of high-energy astrophysical neutrinos by IceCube kicked off a new line of research to identify the electromagnetic counterparts producing these neutrinos. Among the extragalactic sources, active galactic nuclei (AGN), and in particular Blazars, are promising candidate neutrino emitters. Their structure, with a relativistic jet pointing to the Earth, offers a natural accelerator of particles and for this reason a perfect birthplace of high energy neutrinos. A good characterisation of the spectral energy distribution (SED) of these sources can improve the understanding of the physical composition of the source and the emission processes involved. Starting from our previous works in which we assumed a correlation between the $\gamma$-ray and the neutrino flux of the BL Lacs of the 2FHL catalogue (detected by Fermi above 50GeV), we select those BL Lac in spatial correlation with the IceCube events. We obtain a sample of 7 sources and we start an observational campaign to have a better characterisation of the synchrotron peak. During the analysis of the data a new source has been added because of its position inside the angular uncertainty of a muon track event detected by IceCube. This source, namely TXS0506+056, was in a high-state during the neutrino event and we will consider it as benchmark to check the proprieties of the other sources of the sample during the related neutrino detection. We obtain a better characterisation of the SED for the sources of our sample. A prospective extreme Blazar, a very peculiar low synchrotron peak (LSP) source with a large separation of the two peaks and a \textit{twin} of TXS0506+056 come up. We also provide the $\gamma$-ray light curve to check the trend of the sources around the neutrino detection but no clears patterns are in common among the sources.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures, accepted to MNRA

A physics approach to ecosystem dynamics

The mathematical modeling of ecosystems began in the 70s, and brought initially to conclusions which were completely at odds with empirical observations. In fact, while field ecologists were basically sure that biodiversity brings stability in an ecosystem, Robert May showed, using random matrix theory, that this was not the case: a randomly constructed ecosystem (i.e. characterized only by its diversity) becomes unstable if it is populated by a large enough number of species. This gave birth to the so-called “diversity-stability debate”, which still continues to date and still hasn’t brought to a final answer to the question “what is the relationship between the diversity of an ecosystem and its stability?”. Furthermore, the so-called “competitive exclusion principle” (which in turn gave rise to another intense debate) predicts that in a single trophic level the number of coexisting species cannot be greater than the number of resources. There are however many cases where this principle is clearly violated, the most famous one being the so-called “paradox of the plankton”: while the available nutrients for phytoplankton in the oceans are less than a dozen, the number of coexisting phytoplankton species in a single environment can be of the order of several hundreds, even in the periods of the year when nutrients are less abundant. Numerous ecological mechanisms and models have been proposed in order to solve these paradoxes, but none of them is flawless. Recently a possible solution has been proposed: Posfai et al. Introduced a model inspired by the paradox of the plankton, which consists of a system of different species competing for a common pool of nutrients, supplied constantly to the system. The main hypothesis of the model is the “metabolic trade-off” condition: every species has a fixed amount of energy budget to use in order to assimilate the resources. With this assumption it is possible to show that under some simple conditions the system can reach an equilibrium where an arbitrary number of species can coexist. In this thesis, after re-deriving the already known properties of this model, we have obtained many original results, like the study of the rank-abundance curves, a more thorough study of the stability of the equilibrium of the system, and the comparison between this equilibrium and May’s stability criterion. The most exciting result pertains an extension of the model where the metabolic strategies of the species are allowed to evolve in time in order to maximize the fitness of their relative species; in other words we have promoted the species-resource “interactions” to become dynamical variables themselves and whose evolution satisfy a variational principle. We have found that the metabolic strategies evolve cooperatively in order to allow all species to survive even though the initial conditions would have not allowed for their coexistence. This result should open new perspectives in ecosystem modeling and at the same time to new paradigms in statistical mechanics itself.ope

Waiting times between gamma-ray flares of Flat Spectrum Radio Quasars, and constraints on emission processes

The physical scenario responsible for gamma-ray flaring activity and its location for Flat Spectrum Radio Quasars is still debated. The study of the statistical distribution of waiting-times between flares (the time intervals between consecutive activity peaks) can give information on the distribution of flaring times, and constrain the physical mechanism responsible for gamma-ray emission. We adopt here a Scan-Statistic driven clustering method (iSRS) to recognize flaring states within the FERMI-LAT data, and identify the time of activity-peaks. Results: Flares waiting times can be described with a poissonian process, consisting of a set of overlapping bursts of flares, with an average burst duration of about 0.6 year, and average rate of 1.3/y . For waiting times below 1d host-frame we found a statistically-relevant second population, the fast-component, mainly from CTA 102 data. The period of conspicuous detection of the fast component for CTA 102 coincides with the crossing-time of the superluminal K1 feature with the C1 stationary feature in radio reported in Jorstad et al. (2017); Casadio et al. (2019). Conclusions: To reconcile the mechanism proposed in Jorstad et al. (2017); Casadio et al. (2019) with the bursting-activity, we have to assume that plasma streams with a typical length of about 2pc (in the stream reference-frame) reach the recollimation-shock. Otherwise, the distribution of waiting-times can be interpreted as originating from relativistic-plasma moving along the jet for a deprojected length of about 30-50pc (assuming a Lorentz-factor=10), that sporadically produces gamma-ray flares. In magnetic-reconnection scenario, reconnection events or plasma injection to the reconnection-sites should be intermittent. Individual plasmoids can be resolved in a few favourable cases only (Christie et al., 2019); they could be responsible for the fast component.Comment: 15 pages, 11 figures, 3 tables, accepted for publication on Astronomy and astrophysic

A new advanced railgun system for debris impact study

The growing quantity of debris in Earth orbit poses a danger to users of the orbital environment, such as spacecraft. It also increases the risk that humans or manmade structures could be impacted when objects reenter Earth's atmosphere. During the design of a spacecraft, a requirement may be specified for the surviv-ability of the spacecraft against Meteoroid / Orbital Debris (M/OD) impacts throughout the mission; further-more, the structure of a spacecraft is designed to insure its integrity during the launch and, if it is reusable, during descent, re-entry and landing. In addition, the structure has to provide required stiffness in order to allow for exact positioning of experiments and antennas, and it has to protect the payload against the space environment. In order to decrease the probability of spacecraft failure caused by M/OD, space maneuver is needed to avoid M/OD if the M/OD has dimensions larger than 10cm, but for M/OD with dimensions less than 1cm M/OD shields are needed for spacecrafts. It is therefore necessary to determine the impact-related failure mechanisms and associated ballistic limit equations (BLEs) for typical spacecraft components and subsys-tems. The methods that are used to obtain the ballistic limit equations are numerical simulations and la-borato-ry experiments. In order to perform an high energy ballistic characterization of layered structures, a new ad-vanced electromagnetic accelerator, called railgun, has been assembled and tuned. A railgun is an electrically powered electromagnetic projectile launcher. Such device is made up of a pair of parallel conducting rails, which a sliding metallic armature is accelerated along by the electromagnetic effect (Lorentz force) of a cur-rent that flows down one rail, into the armature and then back along the other rail, thanks to a high power pulse given by a bank of capacitors. A tunable power supplier is used to set the capacitors charging voltage at the desired level: in this way the Rail Gun energy can be tuned as a function of the desired bullet velocity. This facility is able to analyze both low and high velocity impacts. A numerical simulation is also performed by using the Ansys Autodyn code in order to analyze the damage. The experimental results and numerical simulations show that the railgun-device is a good candidate to perform impact testing of materials in the space debris energy range

A CFD Based Throughflow Method With Three-Dimensional Flow Features Modelling

The paper describes the development and validation of a novel computational fluid dynamics (CFD)-based throughflow model. It is based on the axisymmetric Euler equations with tangential blockage and body forces and inherits its numerical scheme from a state-of-the-art CFD solver (TRAF code). Secondary and tip leakage flow features are modelled in terms of Lamb–Oseen vortices and a body force field. Source and sink terms in the governing equations are employed to model tip leakage flow effects. A realistic distribution of entropy in the meridional and spanwise directions is proposed in order to compute dissipative forces on the basis of a distributed loss model. The applications are mainly focused on turbine configurations. First, a validation of the secondary flow modelling is carried out by analyzing a linear cascade based on the T106 blade section. Then, the throughflow procedure is used to analyze the transonic CT3 turbine stage studied in the framework of the TATEF2 (Turbine Aero-Thermal External Flows) European program. The performance of the method is evaluated by comparing predicted operating characteristics and spanwise distributions of flow quantities with experimental data