Why using a general model in Solvency II is not a good idea : an explanation from a Bayesian point of view

The passing of Directive 2009/138/CE (Solvency II) has opened a new era in the European insurance market. According to this new regulatory environment, the volume of own resources will be determined depending on the risks that any insurer would be holding. So, nowadays, the model to estimate the amount of economic capital is one of the most important elements. The Directive establishes that the European entities can use a general model to perform these tasks. However, this situation is far from being optimal because the calibration of the general model has been made using figures that reflects and average behaviour. This paper shows that not all the companies operating in a specific market has the same risk profile. For this reason, it is unsatisfactory to use a general model for all of them. We use the PAM clustering method and afterwards some Bayesian tools to check the results previously obtained. Analysed data (public information belonging to Spanish insurance companies about balance sheets and income statements from 1998 to 2007) comes from the DGSFP (Spanish insurance regulator).Solvency II, PAM, Longitudinal multinomial model

Band selection and disentanglement using maximally-localized Wannier functions: the cases of Co impurities in bulk copper and the Cu (111) surface

We have adapted the maximally-localized Wannier function approach of [I. Souza, N. Marzari and D. Vanderbilt, Phys. Rev. B 65, 035109 (2002)] to the density functional theory based Siesta method [J. M. Soler et al., J. Phys.: Cond. Mat. 14, 2745 (2002)] and applied it to the study of Co substitutional impurities in bulk copper as well as to the Cu (111) surface. In the Co impurity case, we have reduced the problem to the Co d-electrons and the Cu sp-band, permitting us to obtain an Anderson-like Hamiltonian from well defined density functional parameters in a fully orthonormal basis set. In order to test the quality of the Wannier approach to surfaces, we have studied the electronic structure of the Cu (111) surface by again transforming the density functional problem into the Wannier representation. An excellent description of the Shockley surface state is attained, permitting us to be confident in the application of this method to future studies of magnetic adsorbates in the presence of an extended surface state

La tercera revolución : comunicación, tecnología y su nomenclatura en inglés

[Resumen] La informacion es, hoy en dia, un elemento esencial en la toma de decisiones por parte de los grupos de poder. Las tecnologias que la hacen posible forman un conglomerado de conceptos y de terminos, la mayoria de ellos originalmente en ingles. Aunque lo verdaderamente significativo de las nuevas tecnologias es que se hallan siempre en constante evolucion. En los inicios del siglo XXI, en los que nos encontramos, resulta evidente que estamos inmersos en una tercera revolucion: la de la tecnologia de la comunicacion y la de Internet. Y todos sabemos que el conocimiento de esta tecnologia resulta irrenunciable, no solo en el puesto de trabajo, sino en el ocio, en la calle y en el hogar. A lo largo del texto, descubriremos el cumulo de conceptos y terminos que conforman el universo de las tecnologias de la informacion y de la comunicacion (TICs). Tanto los mas elementales como los mas complejos. Asi, el lector podra recorrer desde los componentes fisicos del propio ordenador, junto con el sistema operativo, el software de produccion, las redes de comunicacion, Internet, los sistemas de informacion, la produccion del propio software, etc., hasta las consideraciones eticas derivadas de todo el proceso de cambio que conlleva la revolucion actual, ademas de un analisis de las principales salidas laborales derivadas de las TICs. Pero el libro quiere ir mas alla, como se manifiesta desde el primer capitulo, La era tecnologica. Quiere analizar el enorme impacto de Internet y de la realidad virtual en nuestras vidas, aventurar el futuro que nos espera a la luz de los ultimos avances tecnologicos y, en suma, profundizar en los cambios drasticos que nuestra sociedad y nuestros modos de vida experimentaran en los proximos años. Cambios que, de hecho, estamos experimentando ya

Nonequilibrium evolution of volatility in origination and extinction explains fat-tailed fluctuations in Phanerozoic biodiversity

Fluctuations in biodiversity, large and small, pervade the fossil record, yet we do not understand the processes generating them. Here, we extend theory from nonequilibrium statistical physics to describe the fat-tailed form of fluctuations in Phanerozoic marine invertebrate richness. Using this theory, known as superstatistics, we show that heterogeneous rates of origination and extinction between clades and conserved rates within clades account for this fat-tailed form. We identify orders and families as the taxonomic levels at which clades experience interclade heterogeneity and within-clade homogeneity of rates, indicating that families are subsystems in local statistical equilibrium, while the entire system is not. The separation of timescales between within-clade background rates and the origin of major innovations producing new orders and families allows within-clade dynamics to reach equilibrium, while between-clade dynamics do not. The distribution of different dynamics across clades is consistent with niche conservatism and pulsed exploration of adaptive landscapes.Fil: Rominger, Andrew J.. No especifíca;Fil: Fuentes, Miguel Angel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Instituto de Investigaciones Filosóficas. - Sociedad Argentina de Análisis Filosófico. Instituto de Investigaciones Filosóficas; Argentina. Universidad San Sebastián; ChileFil: Marquet, Pablo A.. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile; Chile. Instituto de Ecología y Biodiversidad; Chile. Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México; Méxic

Non-linear models of disability and age applied to census data

It is usually considered that the proportion of handicapped people grows with age. Namely, the older the man/woman is, the more level of disability he/she suffers. However, empirical evidence shows that this assessment is not always true, or at least, it is not true in the Spanish population. This study tries to assess the impact of age on disability in Spain. It is divided into three different parts. The first one is focused in describing the way disability is measured in this work. We used a former index defined by the authors that distinguishes between men and women. The second one is focused in a literature review about the methods used in this paper. This section emphasizes on local regression, feed forward neural networks and BARS. Finally, in the last section estimations are undertaken. Several methods are used and, therefore, there are fairly differences in the results, not only among the methodologies, but also between genders

Why using a general model in Solvency II is not a good idea : an explanation from a Bayesian point of view

The passing of Directive 2009/138/CE (Solvency II) has opened a new era in the European insurance market. According to this new regulatory environment, the volume of own resources will be determined depending on the risks that any insurer would be holding. So, nowadays, the model to estimate the amount of economic capital is one of the most important elements. The Directive establishes that the European entities can use a general model to perform these tasks. However, this situation is far from being optimal because the calibration of the general model has been made using figures that reflects and average behaviour. This paper shows that not all the companies operating in a specific market has the same risk profile. For this reason, it is unsatisfactory to use a general model for all of them. We use the PAM clustering method and afterwards some Bayesian tools to check the results previously obtained. Analysed data (public information belonging to Spanish insurance companies about balance sheets and income statements from 1998 to 2007) comes from the DGSFP (Spanish insurance regulator)

cdcatR: An R package for cognitive diagnostic computerized adaptive testing

Cognitive diagnosis models (CDMs) are confirmatory latent class models that provide fine-grained information about skills and cognitive processes. These models have gained attention in the last few years because of their usefulness in educational and psychological settings. Recently, numerous developments have been made to allow for the implementation of cognitive diagnosis computerized adaptive testing (CD-CAT). Despite methodological advances, CD-CAT applications are still scarce. To facilitate research and the emergence of empirical applications in this area, we have developed the cdcatR package for R software. The purpose of this document is to illustrate the different functions included in this package. The package includes functionalities for data generation, model selection based on relative fit information, implementation of several item selection rules (including item exposure control), and CD-CAT performance evaluation in terms of classification accuracy, item exposure, and test length. In conclusion, an R package is made available to researchers and practitioners that allows for an easy implementation of CD-CAT in both simulation and applied studies. Ultimately, this is expected to facilitate the development of empirical applications in this areaThis research was funded by Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación, grant number PSI2017- 85022-P, and Cátedra de Modelos y Aplicaciones Psicométricas (Instituto de Ingeniería del Conocimiento and Autonomous University of Madrid

Preyssler Heteropolyacids in the Self-Etherification of 5-Hydroxymethylfurfural to 5,5′-[Oxybis(methylene)]bis-2-furfural Under Mild Reaction Conditions

The synthesis of 5,5′-[oxybis(methylene)]bis-2-furfural (OBMF) from 5-hydroxymethylfurfural (5-HMF) was studied using bulk and alumina-supported Preyssler heteropolyacids (HPAs). The formation of OBMF was related to the amount of Brønsted acid sites, and the lowest yield of OBMF was obtained with supported HPAs. However, the Lewis acidity of the HPA supported on Al2O3 favored the formation of 2,5-dimethylfurane. The effects of solvent, catalyst loading, temperature, and reaction time on the selectivity to OBMF from 5-HMF were studied to optimize OBMF production using bulk Preyssler HPAs; a yield of 84 % to OBMF was obtained at 5 h and 343 K. These results demonstrate that bulk Preyssler HPA is a good candidate for OBMF synthesis under mild reaction conditions.Fil: Páez, Alexander. Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia; ColombiaFil: Rojas, Hugo A.. Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia;Fil: Portilla Zúñiga, Omar Miguel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata. Centro de Investigación y Desarrollo en Ciencias Aplicadas ; ArgentinaFil: Sathicq, Angel Gabriel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata. Centro de Investigación y Desarrollo en Ciencias Aplicadas ; ArgentinaFil: Afonso, Carlos A. M.. Universidade de Lisboa; PortugalFil: Romanelli, Gustavo Pablo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata. Centro de Investigación y Desarrollo en Ciencias Aplicadas ; ArgentinaFil: Martínez, José J.. Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia; Colombi