Promotions, State Dependence and Intrafirm Job Mobility: Evidence From Personnel Records

The objective of this paper is to add evidence of job mobility within a firm using personnel records from a single large U.S. corporation, focusing on the determinants of the hazard rates of being promoted to a higher hierarchy level. How to successfully control for unobserved heterogeneity is the goal in this type of analyses, and the approach taken here is to look at the history of the worker, by recognizing state dependence on past promotions. The results show that: (a) the peak of the promotion hazard rates is registered at exactly one year at the current position, even after controlling for observables characteristics and state dependence; (b) males, whites, and more educated workers have a higher probability of being promoted; (c) there is no evidence of “fast tracksâ€: previous promotions do not imply a higher probability of future promotion, even after controlling for tenure at the current job; and (d) recent new hires seems to have an advantage when competing with insiders for a higher position. These last two findings seem to be at odds with the hypotheses of “job-specific†and “firm-specific†human capital, and to indirectly agree with the “Peter Principle†prediction (Lazear, 2004), which suggests that if workers make efforts beyond their capabilities in order to be promoted, after reaching the desired higher position their incentives to be “over-productive†may decline.promotions, personnel economics, job mobility, state dependence

Short and long run determinants of private investment in Argentina.

This study provides an empirical analysis of the macroeconomic factors that can potentially affect investment decisions in Argentina in a short, medium and long run perspective. Both the theory and the empirical literature are reviewed in order to identify a private investment function for the last three decades (1970-2000). The results suggest that investment decisions seem to be determined, in the short run, by shocks in returns (exchange rate, trade liberalization) and in aggregate demand. Besides, there is evidence of a “crowding-out” effect of public investment. In the long run, the capital accumulation path seems to be closely dependent on both well-developed financial and credit markets and on perspectives of fiscal sustainability.investment, macroeconomic instability, crowding-out, Argentina

The impact of remittances on poverty and human capital : evidence from Latin American household surveys

This paper explores the impact of remittances on poverty, education, and health in 11 Latin American countries using nationally representative household surveys and making an explicit attempt to account for one of the inherent costs associated with migration-the potential income that the migrant may have made at home. The main findings of the study are the following: (1) regardless of the counterfactual used remittances appear to lower poverty levels in most recipient countries; (2) yet despite this general tendency, the estimated impacts tend to be modest; and (3) there is significant country heterogeneity in the poverty reduction impact of remittances'flows. Among the aspects that have been identified in the paper that may leadto varying outcomes across countries are the percentage of households reporting remittances income, the share of remittances of recipient households belonging to the lowest quintiles of the income distribution, and the relative importance of remittances flows with respect to GDP. While remittances tend to have positive effects on education and health, this impact is often restricted to specific groups of the population.Population Policies,Remittances,Poverty Monitoring&Analysis,Achieving Shared Growth,Small Area Estimation Poverty Mapping

What is the impact of international remittances on poverty and inequality in Latin America ?

Workers'remittances have become a major source of income for developing countries. However, little is still known about their impact on poverty and inequality. Using a large cross-country panel dataset, the authors find that remittances in Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries have increased growth and reduced inequality and poverty. These results are robust to the use of different instruments that attempt to correct for the potential endogeneity of remittances. Household survey-based estimates for 10 LAC countries confirm that remittances have negative albeit relatively small inequality and poverty-reducing effects, even after imputations for the potential home earnings of migrants.Population Policies,Remittances,Inequality,Achieving Shared Growth,Poverty Impact Evaluation

Should cash transfers be confined to the poor ? implications for poverty and inequality in Latin America

This paper compares for 13 Latin American countries the poverty and inequality impacts of cash transfer programs that are given to all children and the elderly (that is,"categorical"transfers), to programs of equal budget that are confined to the poor within each population group (that is,"poverty targeted"transfers). The analysis finds that both the incidence of poverty and the depth of the poverty gap are important factors affecting the relative effectiveness of categorical versus poverty targeted transfers. The comparison of transfers to children and the elderly also supports the view that choosing carefully categories of beneficiaries is almost as important as targeting the poor for achieving a high poverty and inequality impact. Overall, the findings suggest that although in the Latin American context poverty targeting tends to deliver higher poverty impacts, there are circumstances under which categorical targeting confined to geographical regions (sometimes called"geographic targeting") may be a valid option to consider. This is particularly the case in low-income countries with widespread pockets of poverty.Rural Poverty Reduction,Services&Transfers to Poor,Regional Economic Development,Poverty Monitoring&Analysis

Should Cash Transfers Be Confined to the Poor? Implications for Poverty and Inequality in Latin America

This paper compares for 13 Latin American countries the poverty and inequality impacts of cash transfer programs that are given to all children and the elderly (that is, "categorical" transfers), to programs of equal budget that are confined to the poor within each population group (that is, "poverty targeted" transfers). The analysis finds that both the incidence of poverty and the depth of the poverty gap are important factors affecting the relative effectiveness of categorical versus poverty targeted transfers. The comparison of transfers to children and the elderly also supports the view that choosing carefully categories of beneficiaries is almost as important as targeting the poor for achieving a high poverty and inequality impact. Overall, the findings suggest that although in the Latin American context poverty targeting tends to deliver higher poverty impacts, there are circumstances under which categorical targeting confined to geographical regions (sometimes called "geographic targeting") may be a valid option to consider. This is particularly the case in low-income countries with widespread pockets of poverty.cash transfers, targeting, social assistance, poverty