The impacts of climate change on the winter water cycle of the western Himalaya

Some 180 million people depend on the Indus River as a key water resource, fed largely by precipitation falling over the western Himalaya. However, the projected response of western Himalayan precipitation to climate change is currently not well constrained: CMIP5 GCMs project a reduced frequency and vorticity of synoptic-scale systems impacting the area, but such systems would exist in a considerably moister atmosphere. In this study, a convection-permitting (4 km horizontal resolution) setup of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to examine 40 cases of these synoptic-scale systems, known as western disturbances (WDs), as they interact with the western Himalaya. In addition to a present-day control run, three experiments are performed by perturbing the boundary and initial conditions to reflect pre-industrial, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 background climates respectively. It is found that in spite of the weakening intensity of WDs, net precipitation associated with them in future climate scenarios increases significantly; conversely there is no net change in precipitation between the pre-industrial and control experiments despite a significant conversion of snowfall in the pre-industrial experiment to rainfall in the control experiment, consistent with the changes seen in historical observations. This shift from snowfall to rainfall has profound consequences on water resource management in the Indus Valley, where irrigation is dependent on spring meltwater. Flux decomposition shows that the increase in future precipitation follows directly from the projected moistening of the tropical atmosphere (which increases the moisture flux incident on the western Himalaya by 28%) overpowering the weakened dynamics (which decreases it by 20%). Changes to extreme rainfall events are also examined: it is found that such events may increase significantly in frequency in both future scenarios examined. Two-hour maxima rainfall events that currently occur in 1-in-8 WDs are projected to increase tenfold in frequency in the RCP8.5 scenario; more prolonged (one-week maxima) events are projected to increase fiftyfold

A multi-station satellite radio beacon study of ionospheric variations during total solar eclipses

Faraday rotation data obtained at Delhi, Kurukshetra, Hyderabad, Bangalore, Waltair, Nagpur and Calcutta during the total solar eclipse of 16 February 1980 and at Delhi during the total solar eclipse of 31 July 1981 have been analysed to detect the gravity waves generated by a total solar eclipse as hypothesized by Chimonas and Hines (1970, J. geophys. Res. 75, 875). It has been found that gravity waves can be generated by a total solar eclipse but their detection at ionospheric heights is critically dependent on the location of the observing station in relation to the eclipse path geometry. The distance of the observing station from the eclipse path should be more than 500 km in order to detect such gravity waves