Efficient Yield Curve Estimation and Forecasting in Brazil

Term Structure of the Interest Rate, Yield Curve, State-Space Model, Kalman Filter.

Ondaietas e previsão de séries de tempo: uma análise empírica

This paper presents three case studies in time series forecasting. We try to compare the use of traditional ARIMA models with an alternative method that combines of ARIMA and Wavelets models. Two different approaches are applied. In the first one, Wavelets are used to fraction the original time series, so that ARIMA forecasting is performed on the ffactioned series. The fractioned forecasting is then jointed to obtain the original series forecasting. The second alternative method consist in using Wavelets to smooth the original series before using traditional ARIMA forecasting

CHAGAS CARDIOMYOPATHY AND CAPTOPRIL

BETH ISRAEL MED CTR,DIV CARDIOL,1ST AVE & 16TH ST,8TH DAZIAN,NEW YORK,NY 10003ESCOLA PAULISTA MED SCH,DIV CARDIOL,BR-04023 SAO PAULO,BRAZILESCOLA PAULISTA MED SCH,DIV CARDIOL,BR-04023 SAO PAULO,BRAZILWeb of Scienc

Stingless bees (Hymenoptera, Apoidea, Meliponini) from Gabon

peer reviewe

Estrutura produtiva, restrição externa e crescimento econômico: a experiência brasileira Productive structure, external constraint and economic growth: the Brazilian experience

Analisa-se a perda de dinamismo do crescimento econômico brasileiro a partir da década de 1980, utilizando a abordagem keynesiana de crescimento sob restrição externa. Resultados empíricos revelaram que a taxa de crescimento no período 1930-2004 foi a compatível com o equilíbrio externo e que o câmbio real e o fluxo de capitais tiveram um papel reduzido na obtenção desse equilíbrio. Mas a perda de dinamismo do crescimento, a partir da década de 1980, pode ser explicada por uma maior perversidade desse equilíbrio, dado o comportamento do fluxo de capitais e do câmbio real. Nos anos 1990, por sua vez, a estratégia de desenvolvimento provocou uma quebra estrutural na elasticidade-renda das importações, fazendo com que o equilíbrio externo resultasse em uma taxa de crescimento mais baixa.<br>We analyze the sharp drop in the growth rate that has been experienced by the Brazilian economy since the 1980s, using the balance-of-payments-constrained growth approach. Empirical results show that growth in the 1930-2004 period was balance-of-payments-constrained, with terms of trade and capital flows playing quite a minor role in the reaching of external equilibrium. The sharp drop in growth that has experienced since the 1980s, however, can be explained by a tighter external constraint, given the behavior of the terms of trade and capital flows. In the 1990s, on the other hand, a new development strategy made for a structural break in the income elasticity of imports, thus leading to a lower growth rate compatible with balance-of-payments equilibrium

Enoxaparin followed by once-weekly idrabiotaparinux versus enoxaparin plus warfarin for patients with acute symptomatic pulmonary embolism: a randomised, double-blind, double-dummy, non-inferiority trial

BACKGROUND: Treatment of pulmonary embolism with low-molecular-weight heparin and vitamin K antagonists, such as warfarin, is not ideal. We aimed to assess non-inferiority of idrabiotaparinux, a reversible longlasting indirect inhibitor of activated factor X, to warfarin in patients with acute symptomatic pulmonary embolism. METHODS: In our randomised, double-blind, double-dummy, non-inferiority trial, we enrolled adults with objectively documented acute symptomatic pulmonary embolism attending 291 centres in 37 countries. We excluded patients who were pregnant, had active bleeding, kidney failure, or malignant hypertension, or were at high risk of death, bleeding, or adverse reactions to study drugs. We randomly allocated patients to receive 5-10 days' enoxaparin 1\ub70 mg/kg twice daily followed by subcutaneous idrabiotaparinux (starting dose 3\ub70 mg) or adjusted-dose warfarin (target international normalised ratio 2\ub70-3\ub70); regimens lasted 3 months or 6 months dependent on clinical presentation. Block randomisation was done with a central interactive computerised system, stratified by study centre and intended treatment duration. The primary efficacy outcome was recurrent venous thromboembolism at 99 days after randomisation. We estimated the odds ratio and 95% CI with a Mantel-Haenzsel \u3c7(2) analysis (non-inferiority margin 2\ub70) in the intention-to-treat population. The main safety outcome was clinically relevant bleeding (major or non-major) in all patients at day 99. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00345618. FINDINGS: Between Aug 1, 2006, and Jan 31, 2010, we enrolled 3202 patients aged 18-96 years. 34 (2%) of 1599 patients randomly allocated to receive enoxaparin-idrabiotaparinux and 43 (3%) of 1603 patients randomly allocated to receive enoxaparin-warfarin had recurrent venous thromboembolism (odds ratio 0\ub779, 95% CI 0\ub750-1\ub725; p(non-inferiority)=0\ub70001). 72 (5%) of 1599 patients in the enoxaparin-idrabiotaparinux group and 106 (7%) of 1603 patients in the enoxaparin-warfarin group had clinically relevant bleeding (0\ub767, 0\ub749-0\ub791; p(superiority)=0\ub70098). We noted similar differences in outcomes in those patients treated to 6 months. INTERPRETATION: Idrabiotaparinux could provide an attractive alternative to warfarin for the long-term treatment of pulmonary embolism, and seems to be associated with reduced bleeding