Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling

Despite the continued increase of atmospheric greenhouse gases, the annual-mean global temperature has not risen in this century, challenging the prevailing view that anthropogenic forcing causes climate warming. Various mechanisms have been proposed for this hiatus of global warming, but their relative importance has not been quantified, hampering observational estimates of climate sensitivity. Here we show that accounting for recent cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific reconciles climate simulations and observations. We present a novel method to unravel mechanisms for global temperature change by prescribing the observed history of sea surface temperature over the deep tropical Pacific in a climate model, in addition to radiative forcing. Although the surface temperature prescription is limited to only 8.2% of the global surface, our model reproduces the annual-mean global temperature remarkably well with r = 0.97 for 1970-2012 (a period including the current hiatus and an accelerated global warming). Moreover, our simulation captures major seasonal and regional characteristics of the hiatus, including the intensified Walker circulation, the winter cooling in northwestern and prolonged drought in southern North America. Our results show that the current hiatus is part of natural climate variability, tied specifically to a La Niña-like decadal cooling. While similar decadal hiatus events may occur in the future, multi-decadal warming trend is very likely to continue with greenhouse gas increase

Rapid interhemispheric climate links via the Australasian monsoon during the last deglaciation

Recent studies have proposed that millennial-scale reorganization of the ocean-atmosphere circulation drives increased upwelling in the Southern Ocean, leading to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and ice age terminations. Southward migration of the global monsoon is thought to link the hemispheres during deglaciation, but vital evidence from the southern sector of the vast Australasian monsoon system is yet to emerge. Here we present a 230thorium-dated stalagmite oxygen isotope record of millennial-scale changes in Australian–Indonesian monsoon rainfall over the last 31,000 years. The record shows that abrupt southward shifts of the Australian–Indonesian monsoon were synchronous with North Atlantic cold intervals 17,600–11,500 years ago. The most prominent southward shift occurred in lock-step with Heinrich Stadial 1 (17,600–14,600 years ago), and rising atmospheric carbon dioxide. Our findings show that millennial-scale climate change was transmitted rapidly across Australasia and lend support to the idea that the 3,000-year-long Heinrich 1 interval could have been critical in driving the last deglaciation

ENSO feedbacks and their relationships with the mean state in a flux adjusted ensemble

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is governed by a combination of amplifying and damping ocean–atmosphere feedbacks in the equatorial Pacific. Here we quantify these feedbacks in a flux adjusted HadCM3 perturbed physics ensemble under present day conditions and a future emissions scenario using the Bjerknes Stability Index (BJ index). Relationships between feedbacks and both the present day biases and responses under climate change of the mean equatorial Pacific climate are investigated. Despite minimised mean sea surface temperature biases through flux adjustment, the important dominant ENSO feedbacks still show biases with respect to observed feedbacks and inter-ensemble diversity. The dominant positive thermocline and zonal advective feedbacks are found to be weaker in ensemble members with stronger mean zonal advection. This is due to a weaker sensitivity of the thermocline slope and zonal surface ocean currents in the east Pacific to surface wind stress anomalies. A drier west Pacific is also found to be linked to weakened shortwave and latent heat flux damping, suggesting a link between ENSO characteristics and the hydrological cycle. In contrast to previous studies using the BJ index that find positive relationships between the index and ENSO amplitude, here they are weakly or negatively correlated, both for present day conditions and for projected differences. This is caused by strong thermodynamic damping which dominates over positive feedbacks, which alone approximate ENSO amplitude well. While the BJ index proves useful for individual linear feedback analysis, we urge caution in using the total linear BJ index alone to assess the reasons for ENSO amplitude biases and its future change in models

Patterns and mechanisms of early Pliocene warmth

About five to four million years ago, in the early Pliocene epoch, Earth had a warm, temperate climate. The gradual cooling that followed led to the establishment of modern temperature patterns, possibly in response to a decrease in atmospheric CO2 concentration, of the order of 100 parts per million, towards preindustrial values. Here we synthesize the available geochemical proxy records of sea surface temperature and show that, compared with that of today, the early Pliocene climate had substantially lower meridional and zonal temperature gradients but similar maximum ocean temperatures. Using an Earth system model, we show that none of the mechanisms currently proposed to explain Pliocene warmth can simultaneously reproduce all three crucial features. We suggest that a combination of several dynamical feedbacks underestimated in the models at present, such as those related to ocean mixing and cloud albedo, may have been responsible for these climate conditions

Southern Hemisphere climate variability forced by Northern Hemisphere ice-sheet topography

The presence of large Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and reduced greenhouse gas concentrations during the Last Glacial Maximum fundamentally altered global ocean–atmosphere climate dynamics1. Model simulations and palaeoclimate records suggest that glacial boundary conditions affected the El Niño–Southern Oscillation2,3, a dominant source of short-term global climate variability. Yet little is known about changes in short-term climate variability at mid- to high latitudes. Here we use a high-resolution water isotope record from West Antarctica to demonstrate that interannual to decadal climate variability at high southern latitudes was almost twice as large at the Last Glacial Maximum as during the ensuing Holocene epoch (the past 11,700 years). Climate model simulations indicate that this increased variability reflects an increase in the teleconnection strength between the tropical Pacific and West Antarctica, owing to a shift in the mean location of tropical convection. This shift, in turn, can be attributed to the influence of topography and albedo of the North American ice sheets on atmospheric circulation. As the planet deglaciated, the largest and most abrupt decline in teleconnection strength occurred between approximately 16,000 years and 15,000 years ago, followed by a slower decline into the early Holocene