Novel use of tranexamic acid to reduce the need for Nasal Packing in Epistaxis (NoPac) randomised controlled trial: research protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Patients presenting to emergency departments (EDs) with epistaxis uncontrolled by subsequent simple first aid measures or application of topical vasoconstrictors will typically undergo anterior nasal packing. Packing is effective, but can be extremely painful and unpleasant and patients usually need hospital admission. Tranexamic acid (TXA) is a cheap, safe, readily available antifibrinolytic agent known to be beneficial in a variety of clinical settings where uncontrolled bleeding may be a problem. Anecdotal evidence suggests that topical TXA may be of value in persistent epistaxis; however, further evaluation is required. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This is a multicentre, double-blind, parallel group, randomised, controlled trial comparing the use of topical intranasal TXA with indistinguishable placebo in adults presenting to UK EDs with persistent atraumatic epistaxis. Follow-up is at 1 week by structured telephone review. The primary outcome measure is the subsequent need for anterior nasal packing in the ED. Key secondary outcomes include the need for hospital admission, blood transfusion and/or further treatment for epistaxis during the index ED attendance. Recruiting 450 patients will provide 90% power to demonstrate an absolute reduction in packing rate from 95% to 85%. An improvement of this magnitude would be of significant benefit to patients and healthcare providers and justify a change to standard practice. Given the low cost of TXA and its short administration time, a full economic evaluation is not being undertaken. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study has been approved by the South West-Bristol Research Ethics Committee (reference 17/SW/0010). We aim to publish the findings in a high impact, international peer-reviewed journal. Results will also be shared with the Hereditary Haemorrhagic Telangiectasia foundation and telangiectasia UK for dissemination through appropriate related forums. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN34153772 and EudraCT No: 2016-001530-10

SAFE, a new therapeutic intervention for families of children with autism: study protocol for a feasibility randomised controlled trial

IntroductionIncidence of autistic traits, mental health problems, stress and poor coping is high among family members of children with autism. These problems are coupled with challenging behaviour among children with autism. Current treatment for these families is disjointed and costly. The need for whole family support is supported by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence recommendations, developments regarding children’s service provision, research and requests by families of children with autism. Despite evidence that family therapies can provide benefits to these families, efficacy has not been subject to a randomised controlled trial. Systemic Autism-related Family Enabling (SAFE) is a new family therapy intervention designed specifically for families of children with autism. We aim to establish the feasibility of running a fully powered randomised controlled trial to evaluate SAFE.Methods and analysisFamilies of children with autism aged 3–16 years will be invited to participate. Consenting participants will be randomised 2:1 to either SAFE+support as usual or support as usual alone. The proposed primary outcome measure for the main trial will be the Systemic CORE 15. Participants will also complete proposed secondary outcome measures, indexing changes in child behaviour, child-parent attachment, anxiety and depression. Generic health economic outcome measures (EuroQol 5 dimensions and Child Health Utility 9 Dimensions) will also provide data on the feasibility of cost-effectiveness analysis. Questionnaires will be completed at baseline and 32 weeks post-allocation. Data on ability to identify, recruit, randomise, retain and collect data from families, acceptability of outcome measures, adherence of therapists and families to the intervention, appropriateness of resource use questionnaires and effectiveness of training will be collected for feasibility analysis. Qualitative data will also explore acceptability of SAFE and reasons for declining and withdrawing from the study.Ethics and disseminationThe current trial protocol received ethical approval from the South West-Exeter Research Ethics Committee (Ref: 17/SW/0192). The findings of the trial will be disseminated in collaboration with our Family Consultation Group and other partners. Findings will be shared locally, nationally and internationally through events, conferences and published papers.Trial registration numberISCTRN83964946 (Pre-results) IRAS 213527</jats:sec

SAFE, a new therapeutic intervention for families of children with autism: a randomised controlled feasibility trial

ObjectivesTo establish the feasibility of a definitive randomised controlled trial of Systemic Autism-related Family Enabling (SAFE), an intervention for families of children with autism.DesignA randomised, controlled, multicentred feasibility study.SettingParticipants were identified from three National Health Service (NHS) diagnosing centres in Plymouth and Cornwall and a community pathway.Participants34 families of a child with a diagnosis of autism severity level 1 or 2 between 3 and 16 years. Four families were lost to follow-up.InterventionsSAFE is a manualised five-session family therapy-based intervention delivered over 16 weeks and designed for families of children with autism. SAFE involves families attending five 3-hour sessions led by systemic practitioners.Primary and secondary outcome measuresThe proposed primary outcome measure was the Systemic CORE 15 (SCORE-15). Proposed secondary outcome measures: Patient Health Questionnaire-Somatic Anxiety Depressive Symptoms, the Coding of Attachment-Related Parenting for use with children with Autism, the Child Behaviour Checklist (CBCL), the Reflective Functioning Questionnaire (RFQ) and the Caregiving Helplessness Questionnaire. Outcome measures were collected at baseline and 24 weeks post randomisation.ResultsAll primary caregivers retained in the study completed the SCORE-15 at both time points. 34 of the target of 36 families were recruited and 88% of families were retained. Training for therapists was effective. Feedback revealed willingness to undergo randomisation. There was 100% attendance at appropriate sessions for core family members. The SCORE-15 showed reduction in scores for families receiving SAFE compared with controls suggesting positive change. Qualitative data also revealed that families found the study acceptable and families receiving SAFE experienced positive change. Feedback indicated that the SCORE-15 should be retained as a primary measure in a future trial, but secondary measures should be reduced.ConclusionsThis study indicates that a larger trial of SAFE is feasible. Findings suggest that SAFE can address current gaps in recommended care, can be confidently delivered by NHS staff and has potential as a beneficial treatment.Trial registration numbersISCTRN83964946 and IRAS213527.</jats:sec

Threat-sensitive anti-predator defence in precocial wader, the northern lapwing Vanellus vanellus

Birds exhibit various forms of anti-predator behaviours to avoid reproductive failure, with mobbing—observation, approach and usually harassment of a predator—being one of the most commonly observed. Here, we investigate patterns of temporal variation in the mobbing response exhibited by a precocial species, the northern lapwing (Vanellus vanellus). We test whether brood age and self-reliance, or the perceived risk posed by various predators, affect mobbing response of lapwings. We quantified aggressive interactions between lapwings and their natural avian predators and used generalized additive models to test how timing and predator species identity are related to the mobbing response of lapwings. Lapwings diversified mobbing response within the breeding season and depending on predator species. Raven Corvus corax, hooded crow Corvus cornix and harriers evoked the strongest response, while common buzzard Buteo buteo, white stork Ciconia ciconia, black-headed gull Chroicocephalus ridibundus and rook Corvus frugilegus were less frequently attacked. Lapwings increased their mobbing response against raven, common buzzard, white stork and rook throughout the breeding season, while defence against hooded crow, harriers and black-headed gull did not exhibit clear temporal patterns. Mobbing behaviour of lapwings apparently constitutes a flexible anti-predator strategy. The anti-predator response depends on predator species, which may suggest that lapwings distinguish between predator types and match mobbing response to the perceived hazard at different stages of the breeding cycle. We conclude that a single species may exhibit various patterns of temporal variation in anti-predator defence, which may correspond with various hypotheses derived from parental investment theory

Modelling Hurricane Exposure and Wind Speed on a Mesoclimate Scale: A Case Study from Cusuco NP, Honduras

High energy weather events are often expected to play a substantial role in biotic community dynamics and large scale diversity patterns but their contribution is hard to prove. Currently, observations are limited to the documentation of accidental records after the passing of such events. A more comprehensive approach is synthesising weather events in a location over a long time period, ideally at a high spatial resolution and on a large geographic scale. We provide a detailed overview on how to generate hurricane exposure data at a meso-climate level for a specific region. As a case study we modelled landscape hurricane exposure in Cusuco National Park (CNP), Honduras with a resolution of 50 m×50 m patches. We calculated actual hurricane exposure vulnerability site scores (EVVS) through the combination of a wind pressure model, an exposure model that can incorporate simple wind dynamics within a 3-dimensional landscape and the integration of historical hurricanes data. The EVSS was calculated as a weighted function of sites exposure, hurricane frequency and maximum wind velocity. Eleven hurricanes were found to have affected CNP between 1995 and 2010. The highest EVSS's were predicted to be on South and South-East facing sites of the park. Ground validation demonstrated that the South-solution (i.e. the South wind inflow direction) explained most of the observed tree damage (90% of the observed tree damage in the field). Incorporating historical data to the model to calculate actual hurricane exposure values, instead of potential exposure values, increased the model fit by 50%

A framework for the probabilistic analysis of meteotsunamis

This paper is not subject to U.S. copyright. The definitive version was published in Natural Hazards 74 (2014): 123-142, doi:10.1007/s11069-014-1294-1.A probabilistic technique is developed to assess the hazard from meteotsunamis. Meteotsunamis are unusual sea-level events, generated when the speed of an atmospheric pressure or wind disturbance is comparable to the phase speed of long waves in the ocean. A general aggregation equation is proposed for the probabilistic analysis, based on previous frameworks established for both tsunamis and storm surges, incorporating different sources and source parameters of meteotsunamis. Parameterization of atmospheric disturbances and numerical modeling is performed for the computation of maximum meteotsunami wave amplitudes near the coast. A historical record of pressure disturbances is used to establish a continuous analytic distribution of each parameter as well as the overall Poisson rate of occurrence. A demonstration study is presented for the northeast U.S. in which only isolated atmospheric pressure disturbances from squall lines and derechos are considered. For this study, Automated Surface Observing System stations are used to determine the historical parameters of squall lines from 2000 to 2013. The probabilistic equations are implemented using a Monte Carlo scheme, where a synthetic catalog of squall lines is compiled by sampling the parameter distributions. For each entry in the catalog, ocean wave amplitudes are computed using a numerical hydrodynamic model. Aggregation of the results from the Monte Carlo scheme results in a meteotsunami hazard curve that plots the annualized rate of exceedance with respect to maximum event amplitude for a particular location along the coast. Results from using multiple synthetic catalogs, resampled from the parent parameter distributions, yield mean and quantile hazard curves. Further refinements and improvements for probabilistic analysis of meteotsunamis are discussed

WAO consensus on DEfinition of Food Allergy SEverity (DEFASE).

BACKGROUND: While several scoring systems for the severity of anaphylactic reactions have been developed, there is a lack of consensus on definition and categorisation of severity of food allergy disease as a whole. AIM: To develop an international consensus on the severity of food allergy (DEfinition of Food Allergy Severity, DEFASE) scoring system, to be used globally. METHODS PHASE 1: We conducted a mixed-method systematic review (SR) of 11 databases for published and unpublished literature on severity of food allergy management and set up a panel of international experts. PHASE 2: Based on our findings in Phase 1, we drafted statements for a two-round modified electronic Delphi (e-Delphi) survey. A purposefully selected multidisciplinary international expert panel on food allergy (n = 60) was identified and sent a structured questionnaire, including a set of statements on different domains of food allergy severity related to symptoms, health-related quality of life, and economic impact. Participants were asked to score their agreement on each statement on a 5-point Likert scale ranging from "strongly agree" to "strongly disagree". Median scores and percentage agreements were calculated. Consensus was defined a priori as being achieved if 70% or more of panel members rated a statement as "strongly agree" to "agree" after the second round. Based on feedback, 2 additional online voting rounds were conducted. RESULTS: We received responses from 92% of Delphi panel members in round 1 and 85% in round 2. Consensus was achieved on the overall score and in all of the 5 specific key domains as essential components of the DEFASE score. CONCLUSIONS: The DEFASE score is the first comprehensive grading of food allergy severity that considers not only the severity of a single reaction, but the whole disease spectrum. An international consensus has been achieved regarding a scoring system for food allergy disease. It offers an evaluation grid, which may help to rate the severity of food allergy. Phase 3 will involve validating the scoring system in research settings, and implementing it in clinical practice