The potential role of cost-utility analysis in the decision to implement major system change in acute stroke services in metropolitan areas in England

BACKGROUND: The economic implications of major system change are an important component of the decision to implement health service reconfigurations. Little is known about how best to report the results of economic evaluations of major system change to inform decision-makers. Reconfiguration of acute stroke care in two metropolitan areas in England, namely London and Greater Manchester (GM), was used to analyse the economic implications of two different implementation strategies for major system change. METHODS: A decision analytic model was used to calculate difference-in-differences in costs and outcomes before and after the implementation of two major system change strategies in stroke care in London and GM. Values in the model were based on patient level data from Hospital Episode Statistics, linked mortality data from the Office of National Statistics and data from two national stroke audits. Results were presented as net monetary benefit (NMB) and using Programme Budgeting and Marginal Analysis (PBMA) to assess the costs and benefits of a hypothetical typical region in England with approximately 4000 strokes a year. RESULTS: In London, after 90 days, there were nine fewer deaths per 1000 patients compared to the rest of England (95% CI -24 to 6) at an additional cost of £770,027 per 1000 stroke patients admitted. There were two additional deaths (95% CI -19 to 23) in GM, with a total costs saving of £156,118 per 1000 patients compared to the rest of England. At a £30,000 willingness to pay the NMB was higher in London and GM than the rest of England over the same time period. The results of the PBMA suggest that a GM style reconfiguration could result in a total greater health benefit to a region. Implementation costs were £136 per patient in London and £75 in GM. CONCLUSIONS: The implementation of major system change in acute stroke care may result in a net health benefit to a region, even one functioning within a fixed budget. The choice of what model of stroke reconfiguration to implement may depend on the relative importance of clinical versus cost outcomes

Impact and sustainability of centralising acute stroke services in English metropolitan areas: retrospective analysis of hospital episode statistics and stroke national audit data

OBJECTIVES: To investigate whether further centralisation of acute stroke services in Greater Manchester in 2015 was associated with changes in outcomes and whether the effects of centralisation of acute stroke services in London in 2010 were sustained. DESIGN: Retrospective analyses of patient level data from the Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) database linked to mortality data from the Office for National Statistics, and the Sentinel Stroke National Audit Programme (SSNAP). SETTING: Acute stroke services in Greater Manchester and London, England. PARTICIPANTS: 509 182 stroke patients in HES living in urban areas admitted between January 2008 and March 2016; 218 120 stroke patients in SSNAP between April 2013 and March 2016. INTERVENTIONS: Hub and spoke models for acute stroke care. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Mortality at 90 days after hospital admission; length of acute hospital stay; treatment in a hyperacute stroke unit; 19 evidence based clinical interventions. RESULTS: In Greater Manchester, borderline evidence suggested that risk adjusted mortality at 90 days declined overall; a significant decline in mortality was seen among patients treated at a hyperacute stroke unit (difference-in-differences -1.8% (95% confidence interval -3.4 to -0.2)), indicating 69 fewer deaths per year. A significant decline was seen in risk adjusted length of acute hospital stay overall (-1.5 (-2.5 to -0.4) days; P0.05), length of hospital stay declined (P<0.01), and more than 90% of patients were treated in a hyperacute stroke unit. Achievement of evidence based clinical interventions generally remained constant or improved in both areas. CONCLUSIONS: Centralised models of acute stroke care, in which all stroke patients receive hyperacute care, can reduce mortality and length of acute hospital stay and improve provision of evidence based clinical interventions. Effects can be sustained over time

Evaluation of reconfigurations of acute stroke services in different regions of England and lessons for implementation: a mixed-methods study

Background: Centralising acute stroke services is an example of major system change (MSC). ‘Hub and spoke’ systems, consisting of a reduced number of services providing acute stroke care over the first 72 hours following a stroke (hubs), with a larger number of services providing care beyond this phase (spokes), have been proposed to improve care and outcomes. Objective: To use formative evaluation methods to analyse reconfigurations of acute stroke services in different regions of England and to identify lessons that will help to guide future reconfigurations, by studying the following contrasting cases: (1) London (implemented 2010) – all patients eligible for Hyperacute Stroke Units (HASUs); patients admitted 24 hours a day, 7 days a week; (2) Greater Manchester A (GMA) (2010) – only patients presenting within 4 hours are eligible for HASU treatment; one HASU operated 24/7, two operated from 07.00 to 19.00, Monday to Friday; (3) Greater Manchester B (GMB) (2015) – all patients eligible for HASU treatment (as in London); one HASU operated 24/7, two operated with admission extended to the hours of 07.00–23.00, Monday to Sunday; and (4) Midlands and East of England – planned 2012/13, but not implemented. Design: Impact was studied through a controlled before-and-after design, analysing clinical outcomes, clinical interventions and cost-effectiveness. The development, implementation and sustainability of changes were studied through qualitative case studies, documentation analysis (n = 1091), stakeholder interviews (n = 325) and non-participant observations (n = 92; ≈210 hours). Theory-based framework was used to link qualitative findings on process of change with quantitative outcomes. Results: Impact – the London centralisation performed significantly better than the rest of England (RoE) in terms of mortality [–1.1%, 95% confidence interval (CI) –2.1% to –0.1%], resulting in an estimated additional 96 lives saved per year beyond reductions observed in the RoE, length of stay (LOS) (–1.4 days, 95% –2.3 to –0.5 days) and delivering effective clinical interventions [e.g. arrival at a Stroke Unit (SU) within 4 hours of ‘clock start’ (when clock start refers to arrival at hospital for strokes occurring outside hospital or the appearance of symptoms for patients who are already in-patients at the time of stroke): London = 66.3% (95% CI 65.6% to 67.1%); comparator = 54.4% (95% CI 53.6% to 55.1%)]. Performance was sustained over 6 years. GMA performed significantly better than the RoE on LOS (–2.0 days, 95% CI –2.8 to –1.2 days) only. GMB (where 86% of patients were treated in HASU) performed significantly better than the RoE on LOS (–1.5 days, 95% CI –2.5 to –0.4 days) and clinical interventions [e.g. SU within 4 hours: GMB = 79.1% (95% CI 77.9% to 80.4%); comparator = 53.4% (95%CI 53.0% to 53.7%)] but not on mortality (–1.3%, 95% CI –2.7%to 0.01%; p = 0.05, accounting for reductions observed in RoE); however, there was a significant effect when examining GMB HASUs only (–1.8%, 95% CI –3.4% to –0.2%), resulting in an estimated additional 68 lives saved per year. All centralisations except GMB were cost-effective at 10 years, with a higher net monetary benefit than the RoE at a willingness to pay for a quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) of £20,000–30,000. Per 1000 patients at 10 years, London resulted in an additional 58 QALYs, GMA resulted in an additional 18 QALYs and GMB resulted in an additional 6 QALYs at costs of £1,014,363, –£470,848 and £719,948, respectively. GMB was cost-effective at 90 days. Despite concerns about the potential impact of increased travel times, patients and carers reported good experiences of centralised services; this relied on clear information at every stage. Planning change – combining top-down authority and bottom-up clinical leadership was important in co-ordinating multiple stakeholders to agree service models and overcome resistance. Implementation – minimising phases of change, use of data, service standards linked to financial incentives and active facilitation of changes by stroke networks was important. The 2013 reforms of the English NHS removed sources of top-down authority and facilitative capacity, preventing centralisation (Midlands and East of England) and delaying implementation (GMB). Greater Manchester’s Operational Delivery Network, developed to provide alternative network facilitation, and London’s continued use of standards suggested important facilitators of centralisation in a post-reform context. Limitations: The main limitation of our quantitative analysis was that we were unable to control for stroke severity. In addition, findings may not apply to non-urban settings. Data on patients’ quality of life were unavailable nationally, clinical interventions measured changed over time and national participation in audits varied. Some qualitative analyses were retrospective, potentially influencing participant views. Conclusions: Centralising acute stroke services can improve clinical outcomes and care provision. Factors related to the service model implemented, how change is implemented and the context in which it is implemented are influential in improvement. We recommend further analysis of how different types of leadership contribute to MSC, patient and carer experience during the implementation of change, the impact of change on further clinical outcomes (disability and QoL) and influence of severity of stroke on clinical outcomes. Finally, our findings should be assessed in relation to MSC implemented in other health-care specialties. Funding: The National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research programme

Effects of centralizing acute stroke services on stroke care provision in two large metropolitan areas in England

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE In 2010, Greater Manchester and London centralized acute stroke care into ‘hyperacute’ units (Greater Manchester=3, London=8), with additional units providing ongoing specialist stroke care nearer patients’ homes. Greater Manchester patients presenting within four hours of symptom onset were eligible for hyperacute unit admission; all London patients were eligible. Research indicates that, post-centralization, only London’s stroke mortality fell significantly more than elsewhere in England. This paper attempts to explain this difference by analyzing how centralization affects provision of evidence-based clinical interventions. METHODS Controlled before and after analysis was conducted, using national audit data covering Greater Manchester, London, and a non-centralized urban comparator (38,623 adult stroke patients, April 2008-December 2012). Likelihood of receiving all interventions measured reliably in pre- and post-centralization audits (brain scan; stroke unit admission; receiving antiplatelet; physiotherapist, nutrition, and swallow assessments) was calculated, adjusting for age, sex, stroke-type, consciousness, and whether stroke occurred in-hospital. RESULTS Post-centralization, likelihood of receiving interventions increased in all areas. London patients were overall significantly more likely to receive interventions, e.g. brain scan within three hours: Greater Manchester=65.2%[95% Confidence Interval=64.3-66.2]; London=72.1%[71.4-72.8]; comparator=55.5%[54.8-56.3]. Hyperacute units were significantly more likely to provide interventions, but fewer Greater Manchester patients were admitted to these (Greater Manchester=39%; London=93%). Differences resulted from contrasting hyperacute unit referral criteria, and how reliably they were followed. CONCLUSIONS Centralized systems admitting all stroke patients to hyperacute units, as in London, are significantly more likely to provide evidence-based clinical interventions. This may help explain previous research showing better outcomes associated with fully-centralized model

Impact of centralising acute stroke services in English metropolitan areas on mortality and length of hospital stay: difference-in-differences analysis.

To investigate whether centralisation of acute stroke services in two metropolitan areas of England was associated with changes in mortality and length of hospital stay

Apraxia in progressive nonfluent aphasia

The clinical and neuroanatomical correlates of specific apraxias in neurodegenerative disease are not well understood. Here we addressed this issue in progressive nonfluent aphasia (PNFA), a canonical subtype of frontotemporal lobar degeneration that has been consistently associated with apraxia of speech (AOS) and in some cases orofacial apraxia, limb apraxia and/or parkinsonism. Sixteen patients with PNFA according to current consensus criteria were studied. Three patients had a corticobasal syndrome (CBS) and two a progressive supranuclear palsy (PSP) syndrome. Speech, orofacial and limb praxis functions were assessed using the Apraxia Battery for Adults-2 and a voxel-based morphometry (VBM) analysis was conducted on brain MRI scans from the patient cohort in order to identify neuroanatomical correlates. All patients had AOS based on reduced diadochokinetic rate, 69% of cases had an abnormal orofacial apraxia score and 44% of cases (including the three CBS cases and one case with PSP) had an abnormal limb apraxia score. Severity of orofacial apraxia (but not AOS or limb apraxia) correlated with estimated clinical disease duration. The VBM analysis identified distinct neuroanatomical bases for each form of apraxia: the severity of AOS correlated with left posterior inferior frontal lobe atrophy; orofacial apraxia with left middle frontal, premotor and supplementary motor cortical atrophy; and limb apraxia with left inferior parietal lobe atrophy. Our findings show that apraxia of various kinds can be a clinical issue in PNFA and demonstrate that specific apraxias are clinically and anatomically dissociable within this population of patients

Serum cytokine and glucose levels as predictors of poststroke fatigue in acute ischemic stroke patients

Fatigue is a common but often overlooked symptom after stroke. This study investigated whether stroke type, infarct volume, and laterality, as well as the levels of various cytokines and other blood components in the acute phase of acute ischemic stroke (AIS), can predict the level of fatigue at 6, 12, and 18 months after its onset. In 45 patients with acute stroke, serum levels of C-reactive protein, hemoglobin, glucose, and 13 cytokines were measured within 72 h of stroke onset. The cytokine measurements were performed using BioPlex XMap technology (Luminex). The acute serum levels of interleukin (IL)-1β and glucose were positively correlated with the score on the Fatigue Severity Scale (FSS) at 6 months after the stroke (r = 0.37, p = 0.015, and r = 0.37, p = 0.017, respectively). The acute serum levels of IL-ra and IL-9 were negatively correlated with FSS score at 12 months after the stroke (r = −0.38, p = 0.013, and r = −0.36, p = 0.019, respectively). The FSS score at 12 months after stroke was significantly lower in patients with radiologically confirmed infarction than in those without such confirmation (p = 0.048). The FSS score at 18 months was not correlated with any of the measured variables. High acute serum levels of glucose and IL-1β, and low IL1-ra and IL-9 may predict fatigue after AIS, indicating that the development of poststroke fatigue can be accounted for by the proinflammatory response associated with AIS. These novel findings support a new cytokine theory of fatigue after stroke. However, more research is needed to validate the results of this study

Attachment as an organizer of behavior: implications for substance abuse problems and willingness to seek treatment

BACKGROUND: Attachment theory allows specific predictions about the role of attachment representations in organizing behavior. Insecure attachment is hypothesized to predict maladaptive emotional regulation whereas secure attachment is hypothesized to predict adaptive emotional regulation. In this paper, we test specific hypotheses about the role of attachment representations in substance abuse/dependence and treatment participation. Based on theory, we expect divergence between levels of maladaptive functioning and adaptive methods of regulating negative emotions. METHODS: Participants for this study consist of a sample of adoptees participating in an ongoing longitudinal adoption study (n = 208). The Semi-Structured Assessment of the Genetics of Alcohol-II [41] was used to determine lifetime substance abuse/dependence and treatment participation. Attachment representations were derived by the Adult Attachment Interview [AAI; [16]]. We constructed a prior contrasts reflecting theoretical predictions for the association between attachment representations, substance abuse/dependence and treatment participation. RESULTS: Logistic regression was used to test our hypotheses. As predicted, individuals classified as dismissing, preoccupied or earned-secure reported the highest rates of substance abuse/dependence. Individuals classified as dismissing reported significantly lower rates of treatment participation despite their high rates of substance abuse/dependence. As expected, the continuous-secure group reported lowest rates of both substance abuse/dependence and treatment participation. CONCLUSION: The findings from this study identify attachment representations as an influential factor in understanding the divergence between problematic substance use and treatment utilization. The findings further imply that treatment may need to take attachment representations into account to promote successful recovery

Lipids and carotid plaque in the Northern Manhattan Study (NOMAS)

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Lipids, particularly low-density (LDL) and high-density (HDL) lipoproteins, are associated with increased risk of stroke and cardiovascular disease, probably due to atherosclerosis. The objective of this cross-sectional analysis was to investigate the relation between blood lipids and carotid plaque.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>As part of a prospective population-based study to determine the incidence and risk factors of stroke in a multiethnic population, we evaluated 1804 participants with lipid measurements and B-mode ultrasound of carotid arteries (mean age 69 +/- 10 years; 40% men; 51% Hispanic, 26% black, 23% white). The association between lipid parameters and carotid plaque was analyzed by multiple logistic regression.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Plaque was present in 61% of participants. Mean total cholesterol was 202 +/- 41 mg/dl. After controlling for other lipid parameters, demographics, and risk factors, the only cholesterol subfraction associated with carotid plaque was LDL (OR per standard deviation (SD) = 1.14, 95% CI 1.02-1.27). Neither HDL nor triglycerides independently predicted carotid plaque. Apolipoprotein B (ApoB) was also associated with risk of plaque (OR per SD = 1.29, 95% CI 1.03-1.60). Apolipoprotein A-I (apoA-1) was associated with a decrease in multiple plaques (OR per SD = 0.76, 95% CI 0.60-0.97), while lipoprotein a was associated with an increased risk of multiple plaques (OR per SD = 1.31, 95% CI 1.03-1.66). ApoB:ApoA-I had the strongest relation with carotid plaque (OR per SD = 1.35, 95% CI 1.08-1.69).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Among the common lipid parameters, LDL has the strongest relation with carotid plaque. Other lipid precursor proteins such as ApoB and ApoA-I may be stronger predictors of subclinical atherosclerosis, however, and better targets for treatment to reduce plaque formation and risk of cerebrovascular disease.</p