Diagnosis and management of polycystic ovary syndrome in the UK (2004-2014): a retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the incidence and prevalence of polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) in UK primary care and investigate prescribing patterns before and after a PCOS diagnosis. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: UK primary care (2004-2014). PARTICIPANTS: Women aged 15-45 years. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The incidence and prevalence of diagnosed PCOS and probable PCOS (ie, those without a confirmed diagnosis but with at least 2 PCOS features recorded within 3 years). Among women with diagnosed or probable PCOS, the prevalence of prescribing of drugs typically used to treat PCOS was calculated prior to and in the 24 months after the diagnosis of PCOS. RESULTS: We identified 7233 women with PCOS diagnoses and 7057 women with records suggestive of probable PCOS, corresponding to incidence rates of 0.93 and 0.91 per 1000 person-years at risk (PYAR) and an overall rate of 1.84 per 1000 PYAR. Women aged 20-24 years and women living in deprived areas had the highest incidence of PCOS. The prevalence of PCOS in 2014 was ∼2%. The proportion of women with a prescription in the 24 months after their PCOS index date varied by drug type: 10.2% metformin, 15.2% combined oral contraceptives, 18.8% acne-related treatments, 1.93% clomiphene, 1.0% spironolactone, 0.28% cyproterone and 3.11% eflornithine. Acne-related treatments were more commonly used to treat probable (28.3%) than diagnosed (12.3%) cases, while metformin was prescribed much more commonly in diagnosed cases. CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, compared to rates estimated in community samples, the incidence and prevalence of women presenting in primary care with PCOS diagnoses and features are low, indicating that PCOS is an under-recognised condition. Although considerable variation is observed in treatments prescribed to women with PCOS, the treatments initiated following a confirmed diagnosis generally reflect the long-term prognostic concerns raised in PCOS consensuses

Antiepileptic drugs prescribed in pregnancy and prevalence of major congenital malformations: comparative prevalence studies.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to examine the prevalence of major congenital malformations associated with antiepileptic drug (AED) treatment in pregnancy. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Using data from The Health Improvement Network, we identified women who have given live birth and their offspring. Four subgroups were selected based on the AED treatment in early pregnancy, valproate, carbamazepine, lamotrigine and women not receiving AED treatment. We compared the prevalence of major congenital malformations within children of these four groups and estimated prevalence ratios (PRs) using Poisson regression adjusted for maternal age, sex of child, quintiles of Townsend deprivation score and indication for treatment. RESULTS: In total, 240,071 women were included in the study. A total of 229 women were prescribed valproate in pregnancy, 357 were prescribed lamotrigine and 334 were prescribed carbamazepine and 239,151 women were not prescribed AEDs. Fifteen out of 229 (6.6%) women prescribed valproate gave birth to a child with a major congenital malformation. The figures for lamotrigine, carbamazepine and women not prescribed AEDs were 2.7%, 3.3% and 2.2%, respectively. The prevalence of major congenital malformation was similar for women prescribed lamotrigine or carbamazepine compared to women with no AED treatment in pregnancy. For women prescribed valproate in polytherapy, the prevalence was fourfold higher. After adjustments, the effect of estimates attenuated, but the prevalence remained two- to threefold higher in women prescribed valproate. CONCLUSION: The results of our study suggest that lamotrigine and carbamazepine are safer treatment options than valproate in pregnancy and should be considered as alternative treatment options for women of childbearing potential and in pregnancy

Risks and benefits of psychotropic medication in pregnancy: cohort studies based on UK electronic primary care health records.

BACKGROUND: Although many women treated with psychotropic medication become pregnant, no psychotropic medication has been licensed for use in pregnancy. This leaves women and their health-care professionals in a treatment dilemma, as they need to balance the health of the woman with that of the unborn child. The aim of this project was to investigate the risks and benefits of psychotropic medication in women treated for psychosis who become pregnant. OBJECTIVE(S): (1) To provide a descriptive account of psychotropic medication prescribed before pregnancy, during pregnancy and up to 15 months after delivery in UK primary care from 1995 to 2012; (2) to identify risk factors predictive of discontinuation and restarting of lithium (multiple manufacturers), anticonvulsant mood stabilisers and antipsychotic medication; (3) to examine the extent to which pregnancy is a determinant for discontinuation of psychotropic medication; (4) to examine prevalence of records suggestive of adverse mental health, deterioration or relapse 18 months before and during pregnancy, and up to 15 months after delivery; and (5) to estimate absolute and relative risks of adverse maternal and child outcomes of psychotropic treatment in pregnancy. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort studies. SETTING: Primary care. PARTICIPANTS: Women treated for psychosis who became pregnant, and their children. INTERVENTIONS: Treatment with antipsychotics, lithium or anticonvulsant mood stabilisers. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Discontinuation and restarting of treatment; worsening of mental health; acute pre-eclampsia/gestational hypertension; gestational diabetes; caesarean section; perinatal death; major congenital malformations; poor birth outcome (low birthweight, preterm birth, small for gestational age, low Apgar score); transient poor birth outcomes (tremor, agitation, breathing and muscle tone problems); and neurodevelopmental and behavioural disorders. DATA SOURCES: Clinical Practice Research Datalink database and The Health Improvement Network primary care database. RESULTS: Prescribing of psychotropic medication was relatively constant before pregnancy, decreased sharply in early pregnancy and peaked after delivery. Antipsychotic and anticonvulsant treatment increased over the study period. The recording of markers of worsening mental health peaked after delivery. Pregnancy was a strong determinant for discontinuation of psychotropic medication. However, between 40% and 76% of women who discontinued psychotropic medication before or in early pregnancy restarted treatment by 15 months after delivery. The risk of major congenital malformations, and neurodevelopmental and behavioural outcomes in valproate (multiple manufacturers) users was twice that in users of other anticonvulsants. The risks of adverse maternal and child outcomes in women who continued antipsychotic use in pregnancy were not greater than in those who discontinued treatment before pregnancy. LIMITATIONS: A few women would have received parts of their care outside primary care, which may not be captured in this analysis. Likewise, the analyses were based on prescribing data, which may differ from usage. CONCLUSIONS: Psychotropic medication is prescribed before, during and after pregnancy. Many women discontinue treatment before or during early pregnancy and then restart again in late pregnancy or after delivery. Our results support previous associations between valproate and adverse child outcomes but we found no evidence of such an association for antipsychotics. FUTURE WORK: Future research should focus on (1) curtailing the use of sodium valproate; (2) estimating the benefits of psychotropic drug use in pregnancy; and (3) investigating the risks associated with lifestyle choices that are more prevalent among women using psychotropic drugs. FUNDING DETAILS: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme

Risks associated with antipsychotic treatment in pregnancy: Comparative cohort studies based on electronic health records.

BACKGROUND: Limited information is available on whether antipsychotics prescribed in pregnancy are associated with increased risks of adverse outcomes. METHODS: We used electronic health records from pregnant women and their children to examine risks of adverse maternal and child outcomes in three cohorts of women who: (A) received antipsychotic treatment in pregnancy (n=416) (B) discontinued antipsychotic treatment before pregnancy (n=670), and (C) had no records of antipsychotic treatment before or during pregnancy (n=318,434). Absolute and risk ratios were estimated and adjusted for health and lifestyle and concomitant medications. RESULTS: Caesarean section was more common in cohort A (25%) than C (18%), but non-significant after adjustment for health and lifestyle factors (Risk Ratio (adj.) 1.09 (95% CI: 0.92, 1.30). Proportion of gestational diabetes was similar in cohort A (2.6%) and B (2.7%), but lower in A than B after adjustments (RRadj: 0.43 (0.20, 0.93). Premature birth/low birthweight were more common in cohort A (10%) than B (4.3%) and C (3.9%), A versus B (RRadj: 2.04 (1.13, 3.67), A versus C (RRadj: 1.43 (0.99, 2.05). Major congenital malformations were more common in A (3.4%), than B (2.2%) and C (2%). However no significant difference was observed (A versus B: RRadj: 1.79 (0.72, 4.47) A versus C RRadj: 1.59 (0.84, 3.00)). Risks estimates were similar for women prescribed atypical and typical antipsychotics. CONCLUSIONS: Antipsychotic treatment in pregnancy carries limited risks of adverse pregnancy and birth outcomes once adjustments have been made for health and lifestyle factors

Surveillance of antenatal influenza vaccination: validity of current systems and recommendations for improvement

Abstract Background: Although influenza vaccination is recommended during pregnancy as standard of care, limited surveillance data are available for monitoring uptake. Our aim was to evaluate the validity of existing surveillance in Western Australia for measuring antenatal influenza immunisations. Methods: The self-reported vaccination status of 563 women who delivered between April and October 2013 was compared against three passive data collection sources: a state-wide antenatal influenza vaccination database maintained by the Department of Health, a public maternity hospital database, and a private health service database. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values were calculated for each system using self-report as the “gold standard.” Results: The state-wide antenatal vaccination database detected 45.7 % (95 % CI: 40.1–51.4 %) of influenza vaccinations, the public maternity hospital database detected 66.7 % (95 % CI: 55.1–76.9 %), and the private health service database detected 29.1 % (95 % CI: 20.5–39.4 %). Specificity exceeded 90 % and positive predictive values exceeded 80 % for each system. Sensitivity was lowest for women whose antenatal care was provided by a private obstetrician. Conclusions: Existing resources for surveillance of antenatal influenza vaccinations detect 29–67 % of vaccinations. Considering the importance of influenza immunisation as a public health intervention, particularly in pregnant women, improvements to routine monitoring of influenza vaccination is warranted

Ventilatory Chaos Is Impaired in Carotid Atherosclerosis

Ventilatory chaos is strongly linked to the activity of central pattern generators, alone or influenced by respiratory or cardiovascular afferents. We hypothesized that carotid atherosclerosis should alter ventilatory chaos through baroreflex and autonomic nervous system dysfunctions. Chaotic dynamics of inspiratory flow was prospectively evaluated in 75 subjects undergoing carotid ultrasonography: 27 with severe carotid stenosis (>70%), 23 with moderate stenosis (<70%), and 25 controls. Chaos was characterized by the noise titration method, the correlation dimension and the largest Lyapunov exponent. Baroreflex sensitivity was estimated in the frequency domain. In the control group, 92% of the time series exhibit nonlinear deterministic chaos with positive noise limit, whereas only 68% had a positive noise limit value in the stenoses groups. Ventilatory chaos was impaired in the groups with carotid stenoses, with significant parallel decrease in the noise limit value, correlation dimension and largest Lyapunov exponent, as compared to controls. In multiple regression models, the percentage of carotid stenosis was the best in predicting the correlation dimension (p<0.001, adjusted R2: 0.35) and largest Lyapunov exponent (p<0.001, adjusted R2: 0.6). Baroreflex sensitivity also predicted the correlation dimension values (p = 0.05), and the LLE (p = 0.08). Plaque removal after carotid surgery reversed the loss of ventilatory complexity. To conclude, ventilatory chaos is impaired in carotid atherosclerosis. These findings depend on the severity of the stenosis, its localization, plaque surface and morphology features, and is independently associated with baroreflex sensitivity reduction. These findings should help to understand the determinants of ventilatory complexity and breathing control in pathological conditions

Grid Cells, Place Cells, and Geodesic Generalization for Spatial Reinforcement Learning

Reinforcement learning (RL) provides an influential characterization of the brain's mechanisms for learning to make advantageous choices. An important problem, though, is how complex tasks can be represented in a way that enables efficient learning. We consider this problem through the lens of spatial navigation, examining how two of the brain's location representations—hippocampal place cells and entorhinal grid cells—are adapted to serve as basis functions for approximating value over space for RL. Although much previous work has focused on these systems' roles in combining upstream sensory cues to track location, revisiting these representations with a focus on how they support this downstream decision function offers complementary insights into their characteristics. Rather than localization, the key problem in learning is generalization between past and present situations, which may not match perfectly. Accordingly, although neural populations collectively offer a precise representation of position, our simulations of navigational tasks verify the suggestion that RL gains efficiency from the more diffuse tuning of individual neurons, which allows learning about rewards to generalize over longer distances given fewer training experiences. However, work on generalization in RL suggests the underlying representation should respect the environment's layout. In particular, although it is often assumed that neurons track location in Euclidean coordinates (that a place cell's activity declines “as the crow flies” away from its peak), the relevant metric for value is geodesic: the distance along a path, around any obstacles. We formalize this intuition and present simulations showing how Euclidean, but not geodesic, representations can interfere with RL by generalizing inappropriately across barriers. Our proposal that place and grid responses should be modulated by geodesic distances suggests novel predictions about how obstacles should affect spatial firing fields, which provides a new viewpoint on data concerning both spatial codes

Capturing geographically-varying uncertainty in earthquake ground motion models or what we think we know may change

Our knowledge of earthquake ground motions of engineering significance varies geographically. The prediction of earthquake shaking in parts of the globe with high seismicity and a long history of observations from dense strong-motion networks, such as coastal California, much of Japan and central Italy, should be associated with lower uncertainty than ground-motion models for use in much of the rest of the world, where moderate and large earthquakes occur infrequently and monitoring networks are sparse or only recently installed. This variation in uncertainty, however, is not often captured in the models currently used for seismic hazard assessments, particularly for national or continental-scale studies. In this theme lecture, firstly I review recent proposals for developing ground-motion logic trees and then I develop and test a new approach for application in Europe. The proposed procedure is based on the backbone approach with scale factors that are derived to account for potential differences between regions. Weights are proposed for each of the logic-tree branches to model large epistemic uncertainty in the absence of local data. When local data are available these weights are updated so that the epistemic uncertainty captured by the logic tree reduces. I argue that this approach is more defensible than a logic tree populated by previously published ground-motion models. It should lead to more stable and robust seismic hazard assessments that capture our doubt over future earthquake shaking

Antiepileptic drugs prescribed in pregnancy and prevalence of major congenital malformations: comparative prevalence studies

Irene Petersen,1,2 Shuk-Li Collings,1,3 Rachel L McCrea,1 Irwin Nazareth,1 David P Osborn,4 Phil J Cowen,5 Cormac J Sammon1 1Department of Primary Care and Population Health, University College London, London, UK; 2Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Aarhus University, Aarhus N, Denmark; 3OXON Epidemiology, London, UK; 4Division of Psychiatry, University College London, London, UK; 5University Department of Psychiatry, Warneford Hospital, Oxford, UK Objective: The aim of this study was to examine the prevalence of major congenital malformations associated with antiepileptic drug (AED) treatment in pregnancy.Patients and methods: Using data from The Health Improvement Network, we identified women who have given live birth and their offspring. Four subgroups were selected based on the AED treatment in early pregnancy, valproate, carbamazepine, lamotrigine and women not receiving AED treatment. We compared the prevalence of major congenital malformations within children of these four groups and estimated prevalence ratios (PRs) using Poisson regression adjusted for maternal age, sex of child, quintiles of Townsend deprivation score and indication for treatment.Results: In total, 240,071 women were included in the study. A total of 229 women were prescribed valproate in pregnancy, 357 were prescribed lamotrigine and 334 were prescribed carbamazepine and 239,151 women were not prescribed AEDs. Fifteen out of 229 (6.6%) women prescribed valproate gave birth to a child with a major congenital malformation. The figures for lamotrigine, carbamazepine and women not prescribed AEDs were 2.7%, 3.3% and 2.2%, respectively. The prevalence of major congenital malformation was similar for women prescribed lamotrigine or carbamazepine compared to women with no AED treatment in pregnancy. For women prescribed valproate in polytherapy, the prevalence was fourfold higher. After adjustments, the effect of estimates attenuated, but the prevalence remained two- to threefold higher in women prescribed valproate.Conclusion: The results of our study suggest that lamotrigine and carbamazepine are safer treatment options than valproate in pregnancy and should be considered as alternative treatment options for women of childbearing potential and in pregnancy. Keywords: pregnancy, valproate, lamotrigine, carbamazepine, adverse drug effect